Nuclear development is gaining momentum throughout the Middle East even as Iran's programme captures the political spotlight. The intensifying fear of a nuclear-armed Iran may help spur the rest of the region to action but it is not the main impetus driving the civilian nuclear programmes of countries such as the UAE and Egypt. For that, look to the region's endemic power shortages and recent progress in building a regional power grid.
In the Arabian peninsula, a long-planned electricity network linking the six GCC nations is nearing completion, improving the economics of nuclear power. The enlarged grid would allow the region to make full use of the economies of scale that big atomic plants offer by enabling states with temporary power surpluses to export their excess to needy neighbours. Power sharing could even encourage states with common borders, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, to co-operate on nuclear development, analysts suggest, even though a regional programme has so far proved elusive.
In the Gulf states, only Abu Dhabi has so far made a firm commitment to full-scale nuclear power development. Last December, the emirate awarded a US$20 billion (Dh73.46bn) contract to a consortium led by Korea Electric Power Corporation to build four reactors with a combined generating capacity of 5,600 megawatts. The first 1,400mw plant is expected to start producing electricity in 2017. Saudi Arabia, however, is setting up a centre to develop nuclear technology as part of an $80bn initiative to boost generating capacity over the next eight years.
The Saudi electricity and water minister, Abdullah al Hussein, has said the kingdom was working on plans for its first nuclear power plant, reversing previous official pronouncements that it would rely on solar energy to reduce dependence on oil and gas for power generation. In April, Kuwait signed a civilian nuclear co-operation agreement with France, an international leader in atomic power. A similar deal between Paris and Riyadh could be in the works. Last month, an official of the Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research said establishing a GCC research reactor was a "vital and strategic necessity". It could enhance the region's industrial, agricultural and medical sectors as well as providing nuclear training opportunities, said Nader al Awadhi, the acting deputy director general of research at the institute.
"Many GCC states believe their existing sources of energy will be insufficient to meet rising demand," the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said in a February assessment. "Although they are the world's major producers of fossil fuels, their electricity demand is projected to increase by 10 per cent every year to 2015, with [water] desalination requirements growing by 8 per cent annually.
"Many states reasoned that using nuclear power to fulfil domestic demand would allow for more exports of lucrative fossil fuels." Abdelmajid Mahjoub, the head of the Arab Atomic Energy Agency, which is based in Tunisia and represents 13 member states, predicted UAE's programme would encourage others in the region to pursue nuclear development In the wider Middle East, Jordan and Egypt also plan to build large nuclear plants but could find developing power transmission and distribution systems robust enough to support the reactors financially challenging.
Holger Rogner, the section head for planning and economic studies at the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, says grid reliability is essential for nuclear development and the largest generating unit should not represent more than 10 per cent of the system's total power load. Nevertheless, Egypt plans a $2bn hook-up of its power grid with Saudi Arabia's. Interconnections already exist between Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Turkey.
Australia's WorleyParsons is advising Egypt's Nuclear Power Plants Authority on a plan to build a 1,200mw reactor. The company's $160 million, eight-year contract covers site and technology selection studies and overseeing the design, construction and commissioning of the plant. Jordan is assessing a shortlist of nuclear plant construction offers submitted by Russia's AtomStroyExport, Atomic Energy of Canada and a partnership between France's Areva and Japan's Mitsubishi. Turkish nuclear development plans, which have been on hold for decades, received a shot in the arm last month when the Russian president Dmitry Medvedev signed a preliminary agreement on construction of Turkey's first atomic plant during an official visit to Ankara.
South Korea is in talks with Turkey to build a second plant. As for Iran, barring foreign direct intervention, there is no doubt it will become the first state in the region to develop commercial-scale civilian nuclear power. Ali Akbar Salehi, the director of the country's Atomic Energy Organisation, said on Friday Iran would start operating a Russian-built 1,000mw reactor on the Gulf coast at Bushehr this summer.
What remains in doubt, despite a fourth round of UN sanctions imposed on the country last week, is whether Iran will also develop a nuclear bomb. tcarlisle@thenational.ae
