So let's start with the upside. Steve Misic is impressed. And, before we go any farther, I'm going to pause and savour that for a little while.
What's that? Steve who? Shows what you know. And, indeed, until this week, what I knew. Mr Misic is what I'm pretending to be - a trader, though in his case in the real world, with years of experience in everything from equities and futures to forex and options. A former assistant head trader for a leading hedge fund, he is one of 60 US-based instructors who now share their experience with the thousands of international students at the Online Trading Academy, which, since 2005, has had a branch in Dubai's Knowledge Village.
He was also in town this week, on his fourth trip of the year, to run one of the academy's intensive seven-day professional trader courses, and I collared him in a blatant attempt to get some free tips. This course, focused on stock trading but designed to equip anyone with about US$5,000 (Dh18,365) to spare with the tools they need to tackle trading in any asset class, is pitched at beginners, who learn the essential basics: how to develop a trading plan, find trades by technical analysis and trend-tracking and, crucially, manage risk to prevent losing money, "the professional trader's rule number one". By day three, students are trading live - "planning their trade, then trading their plan", as the academy likes to say - and, best of all, they are trading with the academy's money.
However, cautions Mr Misic, though many students do go on to make a living at their home terminals, don't even think about giving up your day job to trade full-time without a year or two of living money in reserve. Maybe he was being kind, but after I told Mr Misic about the whole fantasy-trading thing, and how at one point I had boosted my original stake of £15,000 (Dh87,270) to close to £16,500 (mainly by stabbing in the dark, but I left out that detail), he said: "Well, percentage-wise, that's not a bad gain."
I thank you. But, in fact, he was being kind, because then he sort of went and spoiled it by adding: "And now think what it would be if you knew what you were doing." Indeed. Mr Misic had worked out that I didn't know what I was doing within five or maybe six seconds of our conversation starting. And, after listening to him patiently explain some of the basic ins and outs of successful trading, I came away simultaneously inspired by the possibilities and depressed at just how much I have to learn.
Mr Misic teaches what he calls a simple strategy for successful trading in any asset class - whether stocks, forex or futures - that involves following the inevitable business cycle of "an expansion, a peak, a contraction and then a trough", and striking - buying or selling - at the correct moment. "So up, sideways, down and sideways again is pretty much the pattern," he says. "And the market has the same pattern; they call it accumulation, mark up, distribution and mark down."
I'm writing this stuff down, mouthing the words, but secretly glad I'm not going to be tested on it later. And then comes a quiet revelation. I guess we all know the way it is - that the world is comprised, essentially, of suckers and suckees - but hearing it spelled out for the first time by Mr Misic, as he gives me his idiot's guide to market economics, is a little disheartening. "Institutions like to accumulate large positions of assets in anticipation of higher prices and, after the higher prices are reached, they usually distribute to the public, who like to buy at the top of the market."
By "like", I think he means "know no better than". Sometimes it's hard to know when financial types are being funny. And then, he says: "The market collapses, the only people that have money are the institutions and then the whole thing starts over again. "Every generation," he adds, "goes through it; you either figure it out or you're a part of it for ever." Depressing. I have wasted my life as a wage slave. So how to figure it out and cross over to the smart side?
For Mr Misic, it's all about the weekly charts: study these carefully and patterns will start to emerge - patterns that can be exploited by the nimble-footed day trader. And don't waste your time reading too much. "For example, look at the gold market right now. It's at all-time highs and going higher. What to do? There's all these people that are long on gold telling you, 'Oh, it's a buy', and everybody who's short telling you, 'Oh, it's going to collapse'."
What you need, he says, is not contradictory advice, but a strategy - based on a sound understanding of demand and supply. "So if you want to buy gold, say, you either buy when it makes a new high or you buy when there's a pullback to some kind of demand zone below current price. Prices don't always go straight up, they often fall back a little before resuming the uptrend." A dim bulb lights up. This was a strategy I'd stumbled on myself, a few columns back!
But a little knowledge is, of course, a dangerous thing, and now I am in a quandary. Do I plunge in deeper, deploying Fibonacci retracement lines (whatever they are) in an attempt to second guess the market? Or do I just stumble on, continuing to act on instinct (a word, incidentally, that makes Mr Misic draw breath, politely, but sharply)? Well, a bit of both, I guess. After all, there's no real money at stake - and if there was, I can't help thinking that handing over $5,000 or so to Mr Misic and his colleagues would be my first and best investment.
Meanwhile, back to stabbing in the dark in the unreal world, whereby this week I have made a grand total of £9.82. Whoop-de-doop. Not quite enough for two Big Mac meals.
jgornall@thenational.ae
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
Essentials
The flights
Return flights from Dubai to Windhoek, with a combination of Emirates and Air Namibia, cost from US$790 (Dh2,902) via Johannesburg.
The trip
A 10-day self-drive in Namibia staying at a combination of the safari camps mentioned – Okonjima AfriCat, Little Kulala, Desert Rhino/Damaraland, Ongava – costs from $7,000 (Dh25,711) per person, including car hire (Toyota 4x4 or similar), but excluding international flights, with The Luxury Safari Company.
When to go
The cooler winter months, from June to September, are best, especially for game viewing.
Tour de France 2017: Stage 5
Vittel - La Planche de Belles Filles, 160.5km
It is a shorter stage, but one that will lead to a brutal uphill finish. This is the third visit in six editions since it was introduced to the race in 2012. Reigning champion Chris Froome won that race.
What drives subscription retailing?
Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.
The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.
The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.
The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.
UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.
That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.
Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.
FIVE%20TRENDS%20THAT%20WILL%20SHAPE%20UAE%20BANKING
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20The%20digitisation%20of%20financial%20services%20will%20continue%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Managing%20and%20using%20data%20effectively%20will%20become%20a%20competitive%20advantage%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Digitisation%20will%20require%20continued%20adjustment%20of%20operating%20models%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Banks%20will%20expand%20their%20role%20in%20the%20customer%20life%20through%20ecosystems%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20The%20structure%20of%20the%20sector%20will%20change%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Abu Dhabi GP schedule
Friday: First practice - 1pm; Second practice - 5pm
Saturday: Final practice - 2pm; Qualifying - 5pm
Sunday: Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (55 laps) - 5.10pm
The biog
Favourite pet: cats. She has two: Eva and Bito
Favourite city: Cape Town, South Africa
Hobby: Running. "I like to think I’m artsy but I’m not".
Favourite move: Romantic comedies, specifically Return to me. "I cry every time".
Favourite spot in Abu Dhabi: Saadiyat beach
The%C2%A0specs%20
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E6-cylinder%2C%204.8-litre%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E5-speed%20automatic%20and%20manual%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E280%20brake%20horsepower%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E451Nm%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh153%2C00%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
The specs: 2018 Nissan Altima
Price, base / as tested: Dh78,000 / Dh97,650
Engine: 2.5-litre in-line four-cylinder
Power: 182hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 244Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Continuously variable tranmission
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.6L / 100km
Prop idols
Girls full-contact rugby may be in its infancy in the Middle East, but there are already a number of role models for players to look up to.
Sophie Shams (Dubai Exiles mini, England sevens international)
An Emirati student who is blazing a trail in rugby. She first learnt the game at Dubai Exiles and captained her JESS Primary school team. After going to study geophysics at university in the UK, she scored a sensational try in a cup final at Twickenham. She has played for England sevens, and is now contracted to top Premiership club Saracens.
----
Seren Gough-Walters (Sharjah Wanderers mini, Wales rugby league international)
Few players anywhere will have taken a more circuitous route to playing rugby on Sky Sports. Gough-Walters was born in Al Wasl Hospital in Dubai, raised in Sharjah, did not take up rugby seriously till she was 15, has a master’s in global governance and ethics, and once worked as an immigration officer at the British Embassy in Abu Dhabi. In the summer of 2021 she played for Wales against England in rugby league, in a match that was broadcast live on TV.
----
Erin King (Dubai Hurricanes mini, Ireland sevens international)
Aged five, Australia-born King went to Dubai Hurricanes training at The Sevens with her brothers. She immediately struck up a deep affection for rugby. She returned to the city at the end of last year to play at the Dubai Rugby Sevens in the colours of Ireland in the Women’s World Series tournament on Pitch 1.
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
THE SPECS
Touareg Highline
Engine: 3.0-litre, V6
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Power: 340hp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: Dh239,312
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 720hp
Torque: 770Nm
Price: Dh1,100,000
On sale: now
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
%3Cp%3EHigh%20fever%20(40%C2%B0C%2F104%C2%B0F)%3Cbr%3ESevere%20headache%3Cbr%3EPain%20behind%20the%20eyes%3Cbr%3EMuscle%20and%20joint%20pains%3Cbr%3ENausea%3Cbr%3EVomiting%3Cbr%3ESwollen%20glands%3Cbr%3ERash%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Frida%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECarla%20Gutierrez%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Frida%20Kahlo%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
FIXTURES
New Zealand v France, second Test
Saturday, 12.35pm (UAE)
Auckland, New Zealand
South Africa v Wales
Sunday, 12.40am (UAE), San Juan, Argentina
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3EFounder%3A%20Hani%20Abu%20Ghazaleh%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20with%20an%20office%20in%20Montreal%3Cbr%3EFounded%3A%202018%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20Virtual%20Reality%3Cbr%3EInvestment%20raised%3A%20%241.2%20million%2C%20and%20nearing%20close%20of%20%245%20million%20new%20funding%20round%3Cbr%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%2012%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2019 Cadillac XT4
Price, base: Dh145,000
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged in-line four-cylinder engine
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Power: 237hp @ 5,000rpm
Torque: 350Nm @ 1,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.7L / 100km
The specs
Engine: 5.0-litre V8
Power: 480hp at 7,250rpm
Torque: 566Nm at 4,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: L/100km
Price: Dh306,495
On sale: now
Vaccine Progress in the Middle East
Other workplace saving schemes
- The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
- Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
- National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
- In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
- Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The biog
Hobbies: Salsa dancing “It's in my blood” and listening to music in different languages
Favourite place to travel to: “Thailand, as it's gorgeous, food is delicious, their massages are to die for!”
Favourite food: “I'm a vegetarian, so I can't get enough of salad.”
Favourite film: “I love watching documentaries, and am fascinated by nature, animals, human anatomy. I love watching to learn!”
Best spot in the UAE: “I fell in love with Fujairah and anywhere outside the big cities, where I can get some peace and get a break from the busy lifestyle”
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani