In the OECD, normal retirement ages are set to increase in 23 of the 38-member countries. Corbis
In the OECD, normal retirement ages are set to increase in 23 of the 38-member countries. Corbis
In the OECD, normal retirement ages are set to increase in 23 of the 38-member countries. Corbis
In the OECD, normal retirement ages are set to increase in 23 of the 38-member countries. Corbis

Retirement ages on the rise to protect pension systems, OECD says


Felicity Glover
  • English
  • Arabic

Millions of people globally will have no choice but to work into their seventies to ease increasing pressure on pension systems as life expectancy rates continue to rise, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has said.

OECD countries are moving to increase statutory retirement ages, curb early retirement and offer employees incentives to work longer to boost the sustainability of their pension systems, the Paris-based organisation said in its Pensions at a Glance 2023 report.

“Governments have several tools available to further promote the employment and employability of all workers, at first by boosting support for reskilling and upskilling,” OECD secretary-general Mathias Cormann said on Wednesday.

“[But] older workers still struggle to keep their skills up to date, have limited access to good-quality jobs and risk having an inadequate old-age pension because of short and unstable working careers.”

In a post-pandemic world, older workers and retirees are also facing risks to their pension funds because of continuing inflation and higher interest rates, consultancy Mercer said in its CFA Institute Global Pension Index report in October.

This increases the cost of existing government debt and the ability of some countries to continue with their current level of services. Growing geopolitical uncertainty, including the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Gaza conflict, is also affecting retirement investment returns, Mercer said.

Earlier this month, the UAE’s General Pension and Social Security Authority increased monthly pension contributions to 26 per cent, from 20 per cent previously, for Emirati employees who joined the workforce from October 31.

The increase in retirement contributions follows the GPSSA’s announcement in November that a new Federal Decree Law, No 57 on Pension and Social Security, had been introduced.

The new law aims to “benefit from an Emirati’s experience for the longest period of time in order to serve public interest and reconsider calculating the retirement pension, so that its value increases as the employment years increase”, said Hind Al Suwaidi, acting executive director of the GPSSA's pensions sector benefits management department.

Emiratis working in government and private sectors are eligible for pensions and other benefits after reaching the retirement age of 49 or having worked for a minimum of 20 years, according to the UAE government.

In the OECD, normal retirement ages are set to increase in 23 of the 38-member countries, reaching an average age of 66.3 years for men and 65.8 years for women who are starting their careers today, the OECD said.

However, in Denmark, Estonia, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden, the retirement age will rise to 70 years or more if life expectancy gains materialise as projected and legislated links with life expectancy are applied, it added.

By 2050, the average share of the population aged 65 and over across all OECD countries is expected to increase by 10 percentage points to 27 per cent, from 18 per cent in 2022.

The labour force participation of older workers in OECD countries has also increased sharply, with the employment rate of 55 to 64 year olds reaching a record 64 per cent in the second quarter of 2023, almost eight percentage points higher than a decade ago.

Addressing the challenges of a rapidly ageing population requires promoting the employment and employability of older workers, an issue that has become more urgent since the pandemic as most OECD countries are facing labour shortages, the report said.

Unfilled job vacancies in the OECD reached record levels in 2022 and remain high in 2023, it added.

“With large numbers of baby boomers retiring in the coming years, it is becoming even more important to promote the labour market participation of underrepresented groups in general, and older workers in particular,” the report said.

However, pension reform alone cannot fully address the impact of population and increased life expectancies on the sustainability of pension systems, Mr Cormann said.

“By providing targeted support for training and ensuring healthy working conditions, countries can improve the employment prospects of older workers,” he added.

“This will help ensure that pension systems remain financially sustainable, while delivering decent incomes in retirement.”

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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?

The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.

Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.

New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.

“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.

The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.

The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.

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Updated: December 14, 2023, 5:36 AM