Chinese stock markets close early after shares fall 7%



Chinese authorities for the first time closed the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges early under a “circuit breaker” mechanism to curb volatility after shares fell seven per cent Monday, raising concern over their commitment to market openness.

China’s stock indices plummeted in mid-2015 as a debt-fuelled bubble burst, sending ripples through global exchanges and wiping trillions from market capitalisations.

The falls prompted wide-ranging intervention by Beijing to prop up share prices.

The measures are estimated to have cost hundreds of billions of dollars, but worked – Shanghai ended the year up 9.4 per cent, while Shenzhen soared more than 63 per cent.

Even so the markets remain volatile – Shanghai saw a five per cent daily fall as recently as November. As part of their efforts to prevent a repetition of the rout, authorities instituted the “circuit breaker” system from Monday.

Under it, a five per cent drop in the CSI300 index, which covers both bourses, triggers an automatic 15-minute trading halt. A fall of seven per cent means the two exchanges are closed for the rest of the day.

But analysts said the “circuit breaker” risked interfering with market efficiency and could even prove counter-productive, heightening volatility instead of reducing it.

“The mechanism is merely a tool and it won’t help the market find its true value,” Northeast Securities analyst Shen Zhengyang told AFP. “With or without the system, the market will continue to drop further if selling pressures piles up.”

“What worries me the most is the enforcement of the system will also hurt market liquidity,” he added. “Investors who want to sell can’t, and those who want to buy also can’t. Trading will dry up if it gets triggered too many times.”

Global markets stuttered Monday as a flare-up in tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia raised concerns about the volatile Middle East. But the Chinese falls followed poor data from official and private surveys of manufacturing activity in the world’s second-largest economy.

In addition, a ban preventing shareholders with holdings of more than five per cent in a company from selling shares – introduced in July to help defend prices – is due to expire on Friday, triggering fears of a sell-off.

By Monday’s early close the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index had tumbled 6.86 per cent, or 242.92 points, to 3,296.26.

The Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China’s second exchange, slumped 8.22 per cent, or 189.75 points, to 2,119.16.

Hong Kong closed normally but the Hang Seng Index was down 2.68 per cent, or 587.28 points, at 21,327.12.

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How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?

The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.

Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.

New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.

“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.

The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.

The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.

Bloomberg

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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