Although the markets were technically not pricing in much chance of a rise in US interest last week (about 28 per cent by most measures), there was still a great deal of surprise and no small amount of confusion when the Federal Open Market Committee’s unchanged decision was announced on Thursday evening.
This was because the analyst community was split more or less 50-50 over the outcome, and in the past few days before the decision the momentum appeared to be with those looking for a hike, if only for the Fed to get the first interest rate rise behind it.
The Fed blinked at the opportunity to tighten monetary policy for the first time in nine years, even though many in the markets would have understood its reasons if it had only raised interest rates by 0.25 per cent or even less. As it is, the window of opportunity for it to act this year has now got smaller, leaving the Fed dangerously exposed and boxed in should events turn even more difficult through the final quarter, with few tools left that it could use to respond to any external shocks.
The crux of the Fed’s decision to stay put appears to come down to the new sentence that appeared in the statement, saying: “recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term”.
Despite the improvement of domestic fundamentals, the Fed is now more concerned about the slowing global economy – by which it means developments in China and other emerging markets – along with the downturn in commodity prices and perhaps the strength of the dollar. These were the issues that tipped the balance in favour of waiting for more information about the labour market and probably about prices.
However, the Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen was short on specifics about what might actually cause the Fed to tighten policy. Forecasts for Nairu (the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) were lowered again, despite the unemployment rate having reached the level the Fed had previously anticipated was full employment (5.1 per cent) last month.
GDP growth estimates were raised for this year but lowered thereafter, and the dot-plot Fed funds rate estimates were lowered slightly, to imply only one interest rate rise by the end of the year and a lower long-term equilibrium level of 3.5 per cent (which is still too high by most estimates).
Furthermore, Ms Yellen’s commentary is forever changing and appearing increasingly random and sometimes contradictory. Whereas in July Ms Yellen had said that the US economy “cannot only tolerate but needs higher rates”, this time she even said there is rationale for a rate hike now, while offsetting this by saying the situation abroad had become “more uncertain of late”.
At the same time, however, she does not want to overplay the impact of overseas developments, and appeared at one point to downplay the impact of the strong dollar by emphasising the bigger importance of the consumer to the US economy. Although disinflation imported from abroad has moved the Fed further away from its inflation mandate, Ms Yellen stuck to her previous line that this was likely to be transitory.
Finally, the decision to raise interest rates will not depend on any single piece of data, and options were left well and truly open when it comes to upcoming FOMC meetings, with all of them considered to be live ones. That keeps next month a possibility for a tightening. More worryingly perhaps, when asked about the possibility of more quantitative easing, she merely observed that it was not being discussed, but was possible in the future.
Given this assessment, it is easy to see why many in the market do not believe the Fed will ever get around to raising interest rates, let alone before the end of this year. The consensus is probably rightly coalescing around a December move still, but the uncertainty Ms Yellen delivered will not make things any easier. Her confused message is likely to lead to even greater volatility in financial markets, which could potentially make it even harder for the Fed to pull the trigger, leaving it with few remaining options if the recovery runs out of steam.
Tim Fox is the head of research and chief economist at Emirates NBD.
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Results
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStage%207%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Adam%20Yates%20(GBR)%20UAE%20Team%20Emirates%20%E2%80%93%203hrs%2029min%2042ses%3Cbr%3E2.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%20%E2%80%93%2010sec%3Cbr%3E3.%20Geoffrey%20Bouchard%20(FRA)%20AG2R%20Citroen%20Team%20%E2%80%93%2042sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EGeneral%20Classification%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3E2.%20Lucas%20Plapp%20(AUS)%20Ineos%20Grenaders%20%E2%80%93%2059se%3Cbr%3E3.%20Adam%20Yates%20(GBR)%20UAE%20Team%20Emirates%20%E2%80%9360sec%3Cbr%3ERed%20Jersey%20(General%20Classification)%3A%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EGreen%20Jersey%20(Points%20Classification)%3A%20Tim%20Merlier%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EWhite%20Jersey%20(Young%20Rider%20Classification)%3A%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EBlack%20Jersey%20(Intermediate%20Sprint%20Classification)%3A%20Edward%20Planckaert%20(FRA)%20Alpecin-Deceuninck%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Museum of the Future in numbers
- 78 metres is the height of the museum
- 30,000 square metres is its total area
- 17,000 square metres is the length of the stainless steel facade
- 14 kilometres is the length of LED lights used on the facade
- 1,024 individual pieces make up the exterior
- 7 floors in all, with one for administrative offices
- 2,400 diagonally intersecting steel members frame the torus shape
- 100 species of trees and plants dot the gardens
- Dh145 is the price of a ticket
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
If you go
The flights Etihad (www.etihad.com) and Spice Jet (www.spicejet.com) fly direct from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Pune respectively from Dh1,000 return including taxes. Pune airport is 90 minutes away by road.
The hotels A stay at Atmantan Wellness Resort (www.atmantan.com) costs from Rs24,000 (Dh1,235) per night, including taxes, consultations, meals and a treatment package.
PAKISTAN v SRI LANKA
Twenty20 International series
Thu Oct 26, 1st T20I, Abu Dhabi
Fri Oct 27, 2nd T20I, Abu Dhabi
Sun Oct 29, 3rd T20I, Lahore
Tickets are available at www.q-tickets.com
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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CABINET%20OF%20CURIOSITIES%20EPISODE%201%3A%20LOT%2036
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGuillermo%20del%20Toro%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tim%20Blake%20Nelson%2C%20Sebastian%20Roche%2C%20Elpidia%20Carrillo%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Generational responses to the pandemic
Devesh Mamtani from Century Financial believes the cash-hoarding tendency of each generation is influenced by what stage of the employment cycle they are in. He offers the following insights:
Baby boomers (those born before 1964): Owing to market uncertainty and the need to survive amid competition, many in this generation are looking for options to hoard more cash and increase their overall savings/investments towards risk-free assets.
Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980): Gen X is currently in its prime working years. With their personal and family finances taking a hit, Generation X is looking at multiple options, including taking out short-term loan facilities with competitive interest rates instead of dipping into their savings account.
Millennials (born between 1981 and 1996): This market situation is giving them a valuable lesson about investing early. Many millennials who had previously not saved or invested are looking to start doing so now.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E6.5-litre%20V12%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E725hp%20at%207%2C750rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E716Nm%20at%206%2C250rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EQ4%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1%2C650%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Afro%20salons
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFor%20women%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESisu%20Hair%20Salon%2C%20Jumeirah%201%2C%20Dubai%3Cbr%3EBoho%20Salon%2C%20Al%20Barsha%20South%2C%20Dubai%3Cbr%3EMoonlight%2C%20Al%20Falah%20Street%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFor%20men%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EMK%20Barbershop%2C%20Dar%20Al%20Wasl%20Mall%2C%20Dubai%3Cbr%3ERegency%20Saloon%2C%20Al%20Zahiyah%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3EUptown%20Barbershop%2C%20Al%20Nasseriya%2C%20Sharjah%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
Rankings
ATP: 1. Novak Djokovic (SRB) 10,955 pts; 2. Rafael Nadal (ESP) 8,320; 3. Alexander Zverev (GER) 6,475 ( 1); 5. Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) 5,060 ( 1); 6. Kevin Anderson (RSA) 4,845 ( 1); 6. Roger Federer (SUI) 4,600 (-3); 7. Kei Nishikori (JPN) 4,110 ( 2); 8. Dominic Thiem (AUT) 3,960; 9. John Isner (USA) 3,155 ( 1); 10. Marin Cilic (CRO) 3,140 (-3)
WTA: 1. Naomi Osaka (JPN) 7,030 pts ( 3); 2. Petra Kvitova (CZE) 6,290 ( 4); 3. Simona Halep (ROM) 5,582 (-2); 4. Sloane Stephens (USA) 5,307 ( 1); 5. Karolina Pliskova (CZE) 5,100 ( 3); 6. Angelique Kerber (GER) 4,965 (-4); 7. Elina Svitolina (UKR) 4,940; 8. Kiki Bertens (NED) 4,430 ( 1); 9. Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) 3,566 (-6); 10. Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) 3,485 ( 1)
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 258hp from 5,000-6,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm from 1,550-4,000rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.1L/100km
Price: from Dh362,500
On sale: now
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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10 tips for entry-level job seekers
- Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
- Keep track of the job trends in your sector through the news. Apply for job alerts at your dream organisations and the types of jobs you want – LinkedIn uses AI to share similar relevant jobs based on your selections.
- Double check that you’ve highlighted relevant skills on your resume and LinkedIn profile.
- For most entry-level jobs, your resume will first be filtered by an applicant tracking system for keywords. Look closely at the description of the job you are applying for and mirror the language as much as possible (while being honest and accurate about your skills and experience).
- Keep your CV professional and in a simple format – make sure you tailor your cover letter and application to the company and role.
- Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
- Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
- Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
- Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
- Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.
Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz
Aayan%E2%80%99s%20records
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Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
Wonka
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%C2%A0Paul%20King%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3ETimothee%20Chalamet%2C%20Olivia%20Colman%2C%20Hugh%20Grant%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Buckingham Murders
Starring: Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ash Tandon, Prabhleen Sandhu
Director: Hansal Mehta
Rating: 4 / 5
UFC%20FIGHT%20NIGHT%3A%20SAUDI%20ARABIA%20RESULTS
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More on animal trafficking
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Roll%20of%20Honour%2C%20men%E2%80%99s%20domestic%20rugby%20season
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What's%20in%20my%20pazhamkootan%3F
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Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.