The UAE announced in Davos on Tuesday the launch of an index to help business leaders and policymakers track disruptive trends and transformations and find opportunities to boost economic growth.
The Future Possibilities Index, which will also include a survey of executives in 70 countries, builds on the 2020 Future Possibilities Report, commissioned by the UAE government, which identified half a dozen trends — from circular and “experience” economies to biomaterials and big data — that will advance the UN's 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
The UAE, which will not be part of the process for producing the index, aims “to make this index a major flagship index in Davos during the annual meetings of the World Economic Forum, and an important global source for governments and decision-makers to inspire forward-looking policies and strategies”, said Ohood Al Roumi, Minister of State for Government Development and the Future.
At the UAE's Pavilion on the main Promenade in Davos, Switzerland, the minister signed a preliminary partnership agreement with Newsweek’s Vantage research and analysis division and global experts Horizon Group.
“In this era, we are witnessing a wave of new trends shaping unique opportunities that could benefit future generations. It is up to us to make the best out of these emerging disruptions and transformations to design a better future,” said Ms Al Roumi.
The UAE will have a role on the advisory board for the index.
Margareta Drzeniek, managing partner with Horizon Group, which helped compile the UN backed report the UAE released three years ago, said decision makers would need data to be able to assess the six areas of opportunity for growth that the index would measure.
These are transformative trends such as “the new digital economy, for example, AI, quantum computing … the transition to net zero … health and well-being … the experience economy, which describes the move away from consuming goods towards experiences, including tourism, but also learning opportunities. And last but not least, a circular economy,” she said.
The index will track the readiness of countries with regards to the above areas, in both the private and public sectors and including if they have the necessary infrastructure in place, Ms Drzeniek said. This would give investors and companies an assessment of where the best opportunities might be.
The 2020 report said there could be as much as a $30 trillion (Dh110 trillion) boost for the global economy by 2025 if governments were able to take advantage of an influx of data, cutting-edge technology and new consumer preferences.
“From the country perspective, it gives them a sense where they are in the process, what they need to do because all those transformations are going to be defining the economy of the future,” she said.
The index would also help countries choose which areas to focus on and prioritise “based on where they have the strengths … also it helps them to see what they need to improve”, Ms Drzeniek said.
“They can benchmark themselves against other countries … and where also the opportunities for leapfrogging are [and find] short-term opportunities.”
The index could also help promote dialogue “that will be more open-minded, and more inclusive of the different groups around the world, north and south, east and west, the younger generation and the older generation,” said Nigel Holloway, chief executive of Newsweek Vantage.
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British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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