By the time you read this, most Americans will have made their choice: a presidential candidate of dubious financial background, with a problem about telling the truth, and about whom there are serious reservations regarding fitness for the highest office.
Or Donald Trump.
Financial markets around the world breathed a small sigh of relief in the past few days when it looked as though the fuss over Hillary Clinton’s emails was going to blow over again, and there seems no doubt who is the preferred candidate among American big business and finance.
Mrs Clinton is the one they want, despite her threats against Wall Street and corporate excess, which they regard as campaign rhetoric. World trade advocates also favour the Democrat over the wall-building, tariff-imposing Republican.
On the other hand, Mr Trump probably commands a high level of support among Main Street businesspeople and the American SME sector, wowed by his self-proclaimed expertise as a wealth-generating, self-made entrepreneur, even if most of that too is campaign imagery.
But from a business point of view, perhaps the most intriguing question that will follow the election result is: what does the future hold for Trump Inc? Win or lose, he will face serious challenges to his empire.
The property, leisure and marketing business that rests under the Trump umbrella faces tough times whatever the election result.
He has said that if he wins the White House he will put the business in an arm’s-length trust under the stewardship of his children. You might argue that your children are hardly impartial custodians, but in law he could probably get away with it.
A stint away from running the business might actually be a considerable relief for him, because the new family executives will face a barrage of lawsuits that have stacked up over the years. One American newspaper recently calculated that Trump is facing 75 court actions in multiple states, on charges running from fraud to non-payment of loans through to contractual disputes.
The biggest, and most pressing, is a case that starts in California this month over alleged fraud at his Trump University business.
So for the sake of the business, it would be good if he loses the presidency. Then he can devote all his energy to these urgent legal matters, as well as to the serious funding issues the Trump organisation faces. Put bluntly, his poor financial track record (at least four bankruptcies in the course of his career) makes it difficult for him to win normal bank financing.
Then there is the effect the various grubby allegations that emerged during the campaign will have on the Trump brand. Some New York residents of his properties are petitioning to have his name removed from the buildings, and his daughter Ivanka is having to deal with a planned boycott of her fashion business. The Trump hotels could face a similar brand backlash.
But there is one field where his notoriety could actually be put to good effect, which is why there has been much speculation about a media venture. Get ready for Trump TV.
fkane@thenational.ae
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