Opec on Wednesday forecast a decline in crude oil demand growth in 2025 but said fuel consumption would be driven by solid economic activity in China.
Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.8 million barrels per day next year, down from Opec's estimate for this year of 2.2 million bpd, the group said in its monthly oil market report on Wednesday.
Opec usually releases its projections for the upcoming year during the second half of the year. The outlook for 2024 was released in November.
“Bringing forward the publication of the 2025 forecast … is part of the continued commitment of the Opec organisation to offer more transparency and support for both consumers and producers,” the group said.
“The undertaking to reach beyond the previously established time horizon of short-term forecasting serves to support the understanding of market dynamics and to support the continued commitment of [Opec+].”
The group expects non-Opec supply to grow by 1.3 million bpd in 2025, in line with its estimate for this year.
This year, the demand for Opec crude is expected to be 28.5 million bpd, surpassing the estimated level for 2023 by 800,000 bpd. Opec crude consumption is projected to reach 29 million bpd in 2025, the group said.
Meanwhile, Opec’s oil production, excluding Angola’s output, increased by 73,000 bpd in December from the preceding month to average 26.7 million bpd, Opec said, citing secondary sources.
Angola, Africa’s second-largest oil producer, last month announced its departure from the oil producer’s alliance after a dispute over production quotas.
The country, which joined Opec in 2007, has a production of about 1.1 million bpd.
Opec also said it expected the global economy to grow by 2.8 per cent next year, up from this year’s estimate of a 2.6 per cent expansion.
The increase would be driven by a recovery from low levels of growth in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies in 2024.
“Non-OECD economies … are set to continue their healthy growth levels and be responsible for a large part of next year’s global economic growth,” the group said.
“This development is under the assumption that general inflation will continue retracting in 2024 and beyond.”
Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration expects global liquid fuels consumption to increase by 1.2 million bpd in 2025, down from its projection of an expansion of 1.4 million bpd this year.
“We attribute the reduction in growth to slowing oil demand growth in China due to stalling GDP growth, increasing vehicle fleet efficiency, and an end to pandemic recovery-related growth in 2023,” the EIA said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook last week.
Despite lower oil demand growth, global consumption of liquid fuels will still reach a new record of more than 103.5 million bpd in 2025, the EIA said.
In a separate statement on Wednesday, Opec's secretary general said projections indicating a peak in oil demand were likely to be as inaccurate as previous forecasts that suggested the crude supply was reaching its highest point.
"Ultimately, peak oil supply has never come to pass, and predictions of peak oil demand are following a similar trend," Haitham Al Ghais said.
"Time and again, oil has defied expectations regarding peaks. Logic and history suggest that it will continue to do so."
The International Energy Agency expects global demand for oil and gas to peak by 2030 or earlier, amid the rapid adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles.
Mr Al Ghais said it would be a "challenge" to see peak oil demand mere six years away, given faster industrialisation in developing countries and policymakers re-thinking their energy transition strategies.
"Moreover, technological improvements are allowing us to not only find new resources, but enabling us to take huge strides in reducing emissions," he said.
Community Shield info
Where, when and at what time Wembley Stadium in London on Sunday at 5pm (UAE time)
Arsenal line up (3-4-2-1) Petr Cech; Rob Holding, Per Mertesacker, Nacho Monreal; Hector Bellerin, Mohamed Elneny, Granit Xhaka, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain; Alex Iwobi, Danny Welbeck; Alexandre Lacazette
Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger
Chelsea line up (3-4-2-1) Thibaut Courtois; Cesar Azpilicueta, David Luiz, Gary Cahill; Victor Moses, Cesc Fabregas, N'Golo Kante, Marcos Alonso; Willian, Pedro; Michy Batshuayi
Chelsea manager Antonio Conte
Referee Bobby Madley
Family reunited
Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe was born and raised in Tehran and studied English literature before working as a translator in the relief effort for the Japanese International Co-operation Agency in 2003.
She moved to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies before moving to the World Health Organisation as a communications officer.
She came to the UK in 2007 after securing a scholarship at London Metropolitan University to study a master's in communication management and met her future husband through mutual friends a month later.
The couple were married in August 2009 in Winchester and their daughter was born in June 2014.
She was held in her native country a year later.
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre turbo 4-cyl
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Power: 190bhp
Torque: 300Nm
Price: Dh169,900
On sale: now
Key products and UAE prices
iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available.
Price: Dh4,229
iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus.
Price: Dh4,649
iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel.
Price: Dh3,179
Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.
MATCH INFO
Who: UAE v USA
What: first T20 international
When: Friday, 2pm
Where: ICC Academy in Dubai
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE%20Warriors%20fight%20card
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Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
bundesliga results
Mainz 0 Augsburg 1 (Niederlechner 1')
Schalke 1 (Caligiuri pen 51') Bayer Leverkusen 1 (Miranda og 81')
The%20specs
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