Few economists say the US is in danger of recession since the economy is underpinned by a strong labour market and solid consumer spending. Bloomberg
Few economists say the US is in danger of recession since the economy is underpinned by a strong labour market and solid consumer spending. Bloomberg
Few economists say the US is in danger of recession since the economy is underpinned by a strong labour market and solid consumer spending. Bloomberg
Few economists say the US is in danger of recession since the economy is underpinned by a strong labour market and solid consumer spending. Bloomberg

Is another US recession in sight after the oil price shock from the Russia-Ukraine war?


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Historically, a surge in crude oil prices of this magnitude have ended US economic expansions and tipped America's economy into recession, according to Pictet Asset Management.

In the past 50 years, every time oil prices, adjusted for inflation, rose 50 per cent above trend, a recession followed, data from Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet, shows.

Brent, the international gauge for oil prices, climbed well above $110 a barrel this week, crossing that threshold on worries about disruption to Russia’s exports after it invaded Ukraine.

Brent has rallied around 50 per cent this year to top $118, trading around decade highs. Futures in New York rose by more than $24 this week alone, the highest weekly dollar increase on record.

Fear is already playing out in the stock market as the war rekindled inflation concerns and clouded the outlook for corporate profits.

The S&P 500 Energy Sector has been one of the few bright spots, continuing its reign as the top performing group in the index, up 35 per cent in 2022.

Oil and gas companies like Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips have posted double-digit gains this year, benefiting from a rise in oil prices.

But investors question how long the strength in energy stocks will last, as the group is now the third-most shorted industry on the S&P 500, with short sellers betting that the oil boom will soon be over.

“I don’t expect an economic disaster, but what we’re seeing in oil prices will have a significant impact on growth,” Mr Paolini said.

To be sure, oil price shocks have ended economic expansions like those in the mid-1970s, early 1980s and early 1990s. But other downturns were not directly caused by a sharp rise in oil prices, like the 2001 recession and the global financial crisis.

I don’t expect an economic disaster, but what we’re seeing in oil prices will have a significant impact on growth
Luca Paolini,
chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management

Few economists say the US is in danger of recession since the economy is underpinned by a strong labour market, solid consumer spending and better-than-expected corporate profits.

But many expect growth to slow further if inflation continues to rise. The war in Ukraine has injected further volatility into markets just as the Federal Reserve enters a rate rise cycle.

“The best thing for markets is for the Fed to lift rates gently and adjust policy in case the war in Ukraine evolves in the wrong way,” Mr Paolini said.

“Waiting to raise rates would be the wrong thing to do because the economy could suffer significantly if inflation rises even further.”

Living in...

This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.

Tips for job-seekers
  • Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
  • Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.

David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East

Brief scores:

Pakistan (1st innings) 181: Babar 71; Olivier 6-37

South Africa (1st innings) 223: Bavuma 53; Amir 4-62

Pakistan (2nd innings) 190: Masood 65, Imam 57; Olivier 5-59

Russia's Muslim Heartlands

Dominic Rubin, Oxford

The Bio

Ram Buxani earned a salary of 125 rupees per month in 1959

Indian currency was then legal tender in the Trucial States.

He received the wages plus food, accommodation, a haircut and cinema ticket twice a month and actuals for shaving and laundry expenses

Buxani followed in his father’s footsteps when he applied for a job overseas

His father Jivat Ram worked in general merchandize store in Gibraltar and the Canary Islands in the early 1930s

Buxani grew the UAE business over several sectors from retail to financial services but is attached to the original textile business

He talks in detail about natural fibres, the texture of cloth, mirrorwork and embroidery 

Buxani lives by a simple philosophy – do good to all

Dhadak 2

Director: Shazia Iqbal

Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri 

Rating: 1/5

Timeline

2012-2015

The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East

May 2017

The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts

September 2021

Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act

October 2021

Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence 

December 2024

Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group

May 2025

The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan

July 2025

The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan

August 2025

Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision

October 2025

Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange

November 2025

180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE

Hot%20Seat
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20James%20Cullen%20Bressack%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EStars%3A%20Mel%20Gibson%2C%20Kevin%20Dillon%2C%20Shannen%20Doherty%2C%20Sam%20Asghari%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%201%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Racecard

5.25pm: Etihad Museum – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,200m

6pm: Al Shindaga Museum – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (Dirt) 1,200m

6.35pm: Poet Al Oqaili – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,400m

7.10pm: Majlis Ghurfat Al Sheif – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,600m

7.45pm: Hatta – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,400m

8.20pm: Al Fahidi – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 2,200m

8.55pm: Zabeel Trophy – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (T) 1,600m

9.30pm: Coins Museum – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,600m

10.05pm: Al Quoz Creative – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,000m

Aquaman%20and%20the%20Lost%20Kingdom
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20James%20Wan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jason%20Mamoa%2C%20Patrick%20Wilson%2C%20Amber%20Heard%2C%20Yahya%20Abdul-Mateen%20II%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Brief scores

Day 1

Toss England, chose to bat

England, 1st innings 357-5 (87 overs): Root 184 not out, Moeen 61 not out, Stokes 56; Philander 3-46

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle%20front-axle%20electric%20motor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E218hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E330Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20automatic%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20touring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E402km%20(claimed)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh215%2C000%20(estimate)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeptember%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO

Inter Milan 1 (Martinez 18' pen)

Juventus 2 (Dybala 4', Higuain 80')

F1 The Movie

Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem

Director: Joseph Kosinski

Rating: 4/5

Ant-Man and the Wasp

Director: Peyton Reed

Starring: Paul Rudd, Evangeline Lilly, Michael Douglas

Three stars

Electoral College Victory

Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate. 

 

Popular Vote Tally

The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.

The specs
Engine: 2.4-litre 4-cylinder

Transmission: CVT auto

Power: 181bhp

Torque: 244Nm

Price: Dh122,900 

SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPHONE%2014%20PRO%20MAX
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.7%22%20Super%20Retina%20XDR%20OLED%2C%202796%20x%201290%2C%20460ppi%2C%20120Hz%2C%202000%20nits%20max%2C%20HDR%2C%20True%20Tone%2C%20P3%2C%20always-on%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20A16%20Bionic%2C%206-core%20CPU%2C%205-core%20GPU%2C%2016-core%20Neural%20Engine%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20128%2F256%2F512GB%20%2F%201TB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20iOS%2016%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Triple%2048MP%20main%20(f%2F1.78)%20%2B%2012MP%20ultra-wide%20(f%2F2.2)%20%2B%2012MP%20telephoto%20(f%2F2.8)%2C%206x%20optical%2C%2015x%20digital%2C%20Photonic%20Engine%2C%20Deep%20Fusion%2C%20Smart%20HDR%204%2C%20Portrait%20Lighting%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%20video%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%20%40%2024%2F25%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20full-HD%20%40%2025%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20HD%20%40%2030fps%2C%20slo-mo%20%40%20120%2F240fps%2C%20ProRes%20(4K)%20%40%2030fps%3B%20night%2C%20time%20lapse%2C%20cinematic%2C%20action%20modes%3B%20Dolby%20Vision%2C%204K%20HDR%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012MP%20TrueDepth%20(f%2F1.9)%2C%20Photonic%20Engine%2C%20Deep%20Fusion%2C%20Smart%20HDR%204%2C%20Portrait%20Lighting%3B%20Animoji%2C%20Memoji%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%20video%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%C2%A04K%20%40%2024%2F25%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20full-HD%20%40%2025%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20slo-mo%20%40%20120%2F240fps%2C%20ProRes%20(4K)%20%40%2030fps%3B%20night%2C%20time%20lapse%2C%20cinematic%2C%20action%20modes%3B%20Dolby%20Vision%2C%204K%20HDR%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204323mAh%2C%20up%20to%2029h%20video%2C%2025h%20streaming%20video%2C%2095h%20audio%3B%20fast%20charge%20to%2050%25%20in%2030min%3B%20MagSafe%2C%20Qi%20wireless%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Apple%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBiometrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Face%20ID%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Lightning%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP68%2C%20dust%2Fsplash%2Fwater%20resistant%20up%20to%206m%20up%20to%2030min%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%20eSIM%20%2F%20eSIM%20%2B%20eSIM%20(US%20models%20use%20eSIMs%20only)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Deep%20purple%2C%20gold%2C%20silver%2C%20space%20black%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20iPhone%2014%20Pro%20Max%2C%20USB-C-to-Lightning%20cable%2C%20one%20Apple%20sticker%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dh4%2C699%20%2F%20Dh5%2C099%20%2F%20Dh5%2C949%20%2F%20Dh6%2C799%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ICC Awards for 2021

MEN

Cricketer of the Year – Shaheen Afridi (Pakistan)

T20 Cricketer of the Year – Mohammad Rizwan (Pakistan)

ODI Cricketer of the Year – Babar Azam (Pakistan)

Test Cricketer of the Year – Joe Root (England)

WOMEN

Cricketer of the Year – Smriti Mandhana (India)

ODI Cricketer of the Year – Lizelle Lee (South Africa)

T20 Cricketer of the Year – Tammy Beaumont (England)

Racecard

6pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 Group 1 (PA) $55,000 (Dirt) 1,900m  

6.35pm: Oud Metha Stakes Rated Conditions (TB) $60,000 (D) 1,200m  

7.10pm: Jumeirah Classic Listed (TB) $150,000 (Turf) 1,600m  

7.45pm: Firebreak Stakes Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,600m  

8.20pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 Group 2 (TB) $350,000 (D) 1,900m  

8.55pm: Al Bastakiya Trial Conditions (TB) $60,000 (D) 1,900m  

9.30pm: Balanchine Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,800m   

The specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm

Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm

Transmission: 9-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh117,059

Abramovich London

A Kensington Palace Gardens house with 15 bedrooms is valued at more than £150 million.

A three-storey penthouse at Chelsea Waterfront bought for £22 million.

Steel company Evraz drops more than 10 per cent in trading after UK officials said it was potentially supplying the Russian military.

Sale of Chelsea Football Club is now impossible.

Updated: March 07, 2022, 5:08 AM