The Houses of Parliament in London. The UK economy is set to expand by 0.4 per cent, compared with a previous contraction forecast of 0.3 per cent. Bloomberg
The Houses of Parliament in London. The UK economy is set to expand by 0.4 per cent, compared with a previous contraction forecast of 0.3 per cent. Bloomberg
The Houses of Parliament in London. The UK economy is set to expand by 0.4 per cent, compared with a previous contraction forecast of 0.3 per cent. Bloomberg
The Houses of Parliament in London. The UK economy is set to expand by 0.4 per cent, compared with a previous contraction forecast of 0.3 per cent. Bloomberg

IMF raises outlook for global economy but challenges still cloud the horizon


Massoud A Derhally
  • English
  • Arabic

The International Monetary Fund has marginally raised its forecast for the global economy for this year and the next but said it is “not out of the woods” due to headwinds that persist, even though the recovery is on track.

Covid-19 has been declared officially over, supply chain disruptions are returning to pre-pandemic levels, global inflation is still elevated but receding while the March banking turmoil in the US and Switzerland is contained and strong economic activity in the first quarter was resilient, the IMF said.

As a result, the fund revised its earlier forecast for this year upwards, raising it by 0.2 percentage points to 3 per cent, although lower than the 3.5 per cent expansion recorded in 2022. It is projecting a similar pace of growth in 2024.

Despite the positive developments, “many challenges still cloud the horizon, and it is too early to celebrate”, said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.

The projected growth rates are weak by historical standards, as advanced economies decelerate to 1.5 per cent this year, from 2.7 per cent in 2022, and are expected to remain subdued, expanding at 1.4 per cent in 2024.

The US, the biggest in the group, is forecast to grow 1.8 per cent in 2023, instead of 1.6 per cent as previously projected, with the estimate lower than the 2.1 per cent expansion recorded last year. Its economy is projected to expand 1 per cent in 2024.

The euro area, which was greatly affected by the Ukraine war, soaring energy prices and record inflation last year, is set to decelerate sharply as the European Central Bank continues to raise interest rates to restore price stability.

Annual inflation across the EU hit a record 9.2 per cent in 2022, compared with 2.9 per cent in 2021.

The bloc, which includes 20 countries that use the euro as their primary currency, is forecast to grow by 0.9 per cent in 2023, following a 3.5 per cent expansion in 2022.

Germany, Europe's largest economy, is now set for a 0.3 per cent contraction this year, instead of shrinking 0.1 per cent as previously forecast.

The UK, which slipped a notch to become the world's sixth-largest economy due to an economic crisis last year that drove the pound to its lowest level against the US dollar, is now expected to expand 0.4 per cent, instead of contracting 0.3 per cent as previously estimated.

Meanwhile, growth in emerging markets and developing economies is expected to maintain its 4 per cent growth rate this year and edge up to 4.1 per cent in 2024.

The growth estimate for China remains unchanged at 5.2 per cent in 2023, following a 3 per cent expansion in 2022, before slowing down to 4.5 per cent in 2024.

India, which overtook the UK to become the world's fifth-largest economy in 2022, is expected to outpace the rest of the world as it expands by 6.1 per cent in 2023, compared with an earlier 5.9 per cent estimate, before picking up to 6.3 per cent in 2024.

The Middle East and Central Asia are forecast to slow to 2.5 per cent, instead of a 2.9 per cent expansion as previously projected, after growing 5.4 per cent in 2022. Growth is set to pick up to 3.2 per cent in 2024.

Saudi Arabia, the Arab world’s largest economy, is forecast to grow by 1.9 per cent this year, instead of 3.1 per cent as previously projected, following an 8.7 per cent expansion in 2022, largely a reflection of production cuts and lower oil prices.

Growth in the kingdom is expected to pick up to 2.8 per cent in 2024.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter of oil, benefitted from the rally in crude prices last year.

Oil prices are projected to fall by about 21 per cent in 2023, with the assumed average price per barrel, based on futures markets, at $76.43 in 2023 and $71.68 in 2024, compared with $96.36 in 2022, the IMF said.

World trade growth is also expected to decline to 2 per cent in 2023, from 5.2 per cent in 2022, before rising to 3.7 per cent in 2024, according to the fund.

This is well below the 2000-2019 average of 4.9 per cent and reflects slowing global demand, as well as a pivot towards domestic services, the lagged effects of US dollar appreciation – which slows trade owing to the widespread invoicing of products in US dollars – and rising trade barriers, the IMF said.

Weighing on growth are tighter monetary policies by central banks, which have raised borrowing rates to fight inflation while reducing the supply of credit.

The US Federal Reserve, which has raised rates by a combined 500 basis points since it started its monetary tightening cycle in March 2022, is expected to increase its key interest rate to a 22-year high on Wednesday as it looks to tame inflation and restore price stability.

The IMF expects global inflation to decline to 6.8 per cent this year, from 8.7 per cent in 2022, a 0.2 percentage point downwards revision for 2023. It expects inflation to fall further to 5.2 per cent in 2024.

“Stronger growth and lower inflation than expected are welcome news, suggesting the global economy is headed in the right direction. Yet, while some adverse risks have moderated, the balance remains tilted to the downside,” said Mr Gourinchas.

“Global tightening of monetary policy has brought policy rates into contractionary territory. This has started to weigh on activity, slowing the growth of credit to the non-financial sector, increasing households’ and firms’ interest payments, and putting pressure on real estate markets.”

As the priority for most economies remains achieving sustained disinflation while ensuring financial stability, central banks should remain focused on restoring price stability and strengthening financial supervision and risk monitoring, the fund said.

The Washington-based lender said countries should provide liquidity promptly if market strains emerge, while also building fiscal buffers.

“Hopefully, with inflation starting to recede, we have entered the final stage of the inflationary cycle that started in 2021. But hope is not a policy, and the touchdown may prove quite tricky to execute,” Mr Gourinchas said.

“Risks to inflation are now more balanced ... yet, it is critical to avoid easing rates prematurely, that is, until underlying inflation shows clear and sustained signs of cooling. We are not there yet.

“All the while, central banks should continue to monitor the financial system and stand ready to use their other tools to maintain financial stability.”

Specs

Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request

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Moon Music

Artist: Coldplay

Label: Parlophone/Atlantic

Number of tracks: 10

Rating: 3/5

Our legal columnist

Name: Yousef Al Bahar

Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994

Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers

MATCH INFO

Manchester City 2 (Mahrez 04', Ake 84')

Leicester City 5 (Vardy 37' pen, 54', 58' pen, Maddison 77', Tielemans 88' pen)

Man of the match: Jamie Vardy (Leicester City)

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES

SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities

Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails

Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies

Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments

RESULTS
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The biog

Favourite book: You Are the Placebo – Making your mind matter, by Dr Joe Dispenza

Hobby: Running and watching Welsh rugby

Travel destination: Cyprus in the summer

Life goals: To be an aspirational and passionate University educator, enjoy life, be healthy and be the best dad possible.

It Was Just an Accident

Director: Jafar Panahi

Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr

Rating: 4/5

Milestones on the road to union

1970

October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar. 

December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.

1971

March 1:  Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.

July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.

July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.

August 6:  The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.

August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.

September 3: Qatar becomes independent.

November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.

November 29:  At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.

November 30: Despite  a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa. 

November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties

December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.

December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.

December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.

While you're here
PROVISIONAL FIXTURE LIST

Premier League

Wednesday, June 17 (Kick-offs uae times) Aston Villa v Sheffield United 9pm; Manchester City v Arsenal 11pm 

Friday, June 19 Norwich v Southampton 9pm; Tottenham v Manchester United 11pm  

Saturday, June 20 Watford v Leicester 3.30pm; Brighton v Arsenal 6pm; West Ham v Wolves 8.30pm; Bournemouth v Crystal Palace 10.45pm 

Sunday, June 21 Newcastle v Sheffield United 2pm; Aston Villa v Chelsea 7.30pm; Everton v Liverpool 10pm 

Monday, June 22 Manchester City v Burnley 11pm (Sky)

Tuesday, June 23 Southampton v Arsenal 9pm; Tottenham v West Ham 11.15pm 

Wednesday, June 24 Manchester United v Sheffield United 9pm; Newcastle v Aston Villa 9pm; Norwich v Everton 9pm; Liverpool v Crystal Palace 11.15pm

Thursday, June 25 Burnley v Watford 9pm; Leicester v Brighton 9pm; Chelsea v Manchester City 11.15pm; Wolves v Bournemouth 11.15pm

Sunday June 28 Aston Villa vs Wolves 3pm; Watford vs Southampton 7.30pm 

Monday June 29 Crystal Palace vs Burnley 11pm

Tuesday June 30 Brighton vs Manchester United 9pm; Sheffield United vs Tottenham 11.15pm 

Wednesday July 1 Bournemouth vs Newcastle 9pm; Everton vs Leicester 9pm; West Ham vs Chelsea 11.15pm

Thursday July 2 Arsenal vs Norwich 9pm; Manchester City vs Liverpool 11.15pm

 

Specs

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Power: 905hp

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PROFILE OF CURE.FIT

Started: July 2016

Founders: Mukesh Bansal and Ankit Nagori

Based: Bangalore, India

Sector: Health & wellness

Size: 500 employees

Investment: $250 million

Investors: Accel, Oaktree Capital (US); Chiratae Ventures, Epiq Capital, Innoven Capital, Kalaari Capital, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Piramal Group’s Anand Piramal, Pratithi Investment Trust, Ratan Tata (India); and Unilever Ventures (Unilever’s global venture capital arm)

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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
if you go

The flights

Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.

The hotel

Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.

The tour

Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg

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Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km

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Top New Zealand cop on policing the virtual world

New Zealand police began closer scrutiny of social media and online communities after the attacks on two mosques in March, the country's top officer said.

The killing of 51 people in Christchurch and wounding of more than 40 others shocked the world. Brenton Tarrant, a suspected white supremacist, was accused of the killings. His trial is ongoing and he denies the charges.

Mike Bush, commissioner of New Zealand Police, said officers looked closely at how they monitored social media in the wake of the tragedy to see if lessons could be learned.

“We decided that it was fit for purpose but we need to deepen it in terms of community relationships, extending them not only with the traditional community but the virtual one as well," he told The National.

"We want to get ahead of attacks like we suffered in New Zealand so we have to challenge ourselves to be better."

MATCH INFO

Borussia Dortmund 0

Bayern Munich 1 (Kimmich 43')

Man of the match: Joshua Kimmich (Bayern Munich)

Important questions to consider

1. Where on the plane does my pet travel?

There are different types of travel available for pets:

  • Manifest cargo
  • Excess luggage in the hold
  • Excess luggage in the cabin

Each option is safe. The feasibility of each option is based on the size and breed of your pet, the airline they are traveling on and country they are travelling to.

 

2. What is the difference between my pet traveling as manifest cargo or as excess luggage?

If traveling as manifest cargo, your pet is traveling in the front hold of the plane and can travel with or without you being on the same plane. The cost of your pets travel is based on volumetric weight, in other words, the size of their travel crate.

If traveling as excess luggage, your pet will be in the rear hold of the plane and must be traveling under the ticket of a human passenger. The cost of your pets travel is based on the actual (combined) weight of your pet in their crate.

 

3. What happens when my pet arrives in the country they are traveling to?

As soon as the flight arrives, your pet will be taken from the plane straight to the airport terminal.

If your pet is traveling as excess luggage, they will taken to the oversized luggage area in the arrival hall. Once you clear passport control, you will be able to collect them at the same time as your normal luggage. As you exit the airport via the ‘something to declare’ customs channel you will be asked to present your pets travel paperwork to the customs official and / or the vet on duty. 

If your pet is traveling as manifest cargo, they will be taken to the Animal Reception Centre. There, their documentation will be reviewed by the staff of the ARC to ensure all is in order. At the same time, relevant customs formalities will be completed by staff based at the arriving airport. 

 

4. How long does the travel paperwork and other travel preparations take?

This depends entirely on the location that your pet is traveling to. Your pet relocation compnay will provide you with an accurate timeline of how long the relevant preparations will take and at what point in the process the various steps must be taken.

In some cases they can get your pet ‘travel ready’ in a few days. In others it can be up to six months or more.

 

5. What vaccinations does my pet need to travel?

Regardless of where your pet is traveling, they will need certain vaccinations. The exact vaccinations they need are entirely dependent on the location they are traveling to. The one vaccination that is mandatory for every country your pet may travel to is a rabies vaccination.

Other vaccinations may also be necessary. These will be advised to you as relevant. In every situation, it is essential to keep your vaccinations current and to not miss a due date, even by one day. To do so could severely hinder your pets travel plans.

Source: Pawsome Pets UAE

Company%20profile
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Updated: July 25, 2023, 1:00 PM`