Growth in global trade is expected to remain “subdued” this year, following a significant slowdown in the fourth quarter of last year amid geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic headwinds, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad).
Trade is set to stagnate in the first quarter of 2023, but the outlook is more positive for the second half of the year, the UN body said on Thursday in its latest update on global trade.
Global trade in goods during the first three months of this year is forecast to increase by about 1 per cent, while trade in services is expected to increase by about 3 per cent, from the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the report.
“Deteriorating economic conditions, the lifting of zero-Covid policies, and renewed concerns about inflationary pressures have resulted in a significant trade slowdown during the fourth quarter of 2022. While the economic outlook has improved, global trade growth is expected to remain subdued in 2023, with the possibility of a pickup in the second half of the year,” Unctad said.
The UN body's forecast for global trade comes amid challenging macroeconomic conditions and the continuing Ukraine-Russia war.
Global inflation is forecast to fall to 6.6 per cent in 2023 and 4.3 per cent in 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund's latest forecast.
Higher oil prices and Russia's war in Ukraine exacerbated inflation in 2022.
A strong US dollar also led to an increase in import prices and food costs globally last year, but the dollar began to depreciate in September, a situation that is expected to help ease inflationary pressures further this year.
Geopolitical factors, persisting inflation and concerns about global debt sustainability will weigh on international trade flows, according to Unctad.
“Geopolitical tensions, including the Russian Federation’s conflict with Ukraine, remain the biggest risks negatively affecting international trade during 2023.”
Interest rates are also expected to remain relatively high in many economies as central banks attempt to tackle persistent inflationary pressures.
Commodity prices are expected to remain above pre-pandemic averages, especially for energy, food, and metals, Unctad said.
“The current record levels of global debt, coupled with high interest rates, will continue to negatively affect the macroeconomic conditions of many countries.”
On the other hand, positive factors such as an improved economic outlook for major economies, decreasing shipping costs, a weakening of the US dollar and rising demand for services will help bolster global trade.
“Overall, although the outlook for global trade remains uncertain, the positive factors are expected to compensate for the negative trends,” Unctad said.
The UN body expects international trade patterns in 2023 to be affected by “near-shoring”, or relocating production processes closer to target markets, and “reshoring”, bringing manufacturing back to home countries, as companies focus on improving supply chain resilience.
This may lead to “some degree of decoupling between major economies and result in regionalisation of international trade”.
Trade policies geared towards the green transition will also reshape global flows of goods and services.
“The patterns of international trade are anticipated to become more closely tied to the transition towards a greener global economy,” Unctad said.
“As countries increasingly integrate climate commitments into trade and industrial policies, concerns regarding possibly restrictive trade practices may lead to changes in the global trade landscape.”
Green goods buck downwards trade trend
Trade in environmentally-friendly goods continued to increase throughout the second half of 2022, bucking the downwards trend in overall global trade.
Global trade hit a record $32 trillion last year, but amid deteriorating economic conditions and rising uncertainties, growth turned negative in the last half of the year.
The silver lining was the strong performance of trade in “green goods” which held strong throughout the year, Unctad said.
Green goods refer to products that are designed to use fewer resources or emit less pollution than traditional products.
Green goods trade grew by about 4 per cent in the second half of the year. Their combined value hit a record $1.9 trillion in 2022, up more than $100 billion compared to 2021.
Electric and hybrid vehicles, non-plastic packaging and wind turbines performed especially well, the report showed.
“This is good news for the planet,” Alessandro Nicita, one of the report’s authors, said.
“These goods are key to protecting the environment and fighting climate change.”
Key findings
- Over a period of seven years, a team of scientists analysed dietary data from 50,000 North American adults.
- Eating one or two meals a day was associated with a relative decrease in BMI, compared with three meals. Snacks count as a meal. Likewise, participants who ate more than three meals a day experienced an increase in BMI: the more meals a day, the greater the increase.
- People who ate breakfast experienced a relative decrease in their BMI compared with “breakfast-skippers”.
- Those who turned the eating day on its head to make breakfast the biggest meal of the day, did even better.
- But scrapping dinner altogether gave the best results. The study found that the BMI of subjects who had a long overnight fast (of 18 hours or more) decreased when compared even with those who had a medium overnight fast, of between 12 and 17 hours.
How it works
Each player begins with one of the great empires of history, from Julius Caesar's Rome to Ramses of Egypt, spread over Europe and the Middle East.
Round by round, the player expands their empire. The more land they have, the more money they can take from their coffers for each go.
As unruled land and soldiers are acquired, players must feed them. When a player comes up against land held by another army, they can choose to battle for supremacy.
A dice-based battle system is used and players can get the edge on their enemy with by deploying a renowned hero on the battlefield.
Players that lose battles and land will find their coffers dwindle and troops go hungry. The end goal? Global domination of course.
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Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
Types of bank fraud
1) Phishing
Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.
2) Smishing
The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.
3) Vishing
The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.
4) SIM swap
Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
5) Identity theft
Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.
6) Prize scams
Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.
RESULTS
6.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh82.500 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner Meshakel, Royston Ffrench (jockey), Salem bin Ghadayer (trainer)
7.05pm Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,400m
Winner Gervais, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
7.40pm Handicap (TB) Dh92,500 (Turf) 2,410m
Winner Global Heat, Pat Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.
8.15pm Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner Firnas, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
8.50pm UAE 2000 Guineas Trial (TB) Conditions Dh183,650 (D) 1,600m
Winner Rebel’s Romance, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
9.25pm Dubai Trophy (TB) Conditions Dh183,650 (T) 1,200m
Winner Topper Bill, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
10pm Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (T) 1,400m
Winner Wasim, Mickael Barzalona, Ismail Mohammed.
