Wall Street's top banks expect a looming recession in the US and Europe as interest rates continue to rise sharply and the economic outlook weakens amid persistent geopolitical headwinds.
JP Morgan Chase chief executive, Jamie Dimon, and his counterpart at Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, believe the likelihood of a recession in the world’s biggest economy is increasing as the US Federal Reserve continues to increase its policy rate aggressively.
“There is no question that economic conditions, in my opinion, are going to tighten meaningfully from here,” Mr Solomon said at a panel discussion at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh on Tuesday
In the US, particularly in the last week or two, there has been a clear message from the Fed that it will continue on the current path of pushing policy rates to 4.5 per cent, with three-quarters of a percentage point rate increases, he said.
The Fed will then pause because there is a lag effect of these rate increases, and it will continue on the path “if they don't see real changes”.
“I think generally when you find yourself in an economic scenario like this, where inflation is embedded, it's very hard to get out of it without economic slowdown,” Mr Solomon said.
“We will likely have a recession in the US [and] going to have I think most likely a recession in Europe.”
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Goldman Sachs estimates the risk of a US recession in the next year at 35 per cent while Bloomberg analysts forecast 100 per cent. The Fed meets next week and is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points for a fourth consecutive time as it vies to tame four-decade high inflation.
Annual headline inflation in the US was up 8.2 per cent in September, down from its peak of about 9 per cent in June but still near the highest levels since the early 1980s, the latest economic data indicates. Core inflation for the month was up 6.6 per cent from a year ago, the biggest 12-month gain since August 1982.
Mr Dimon said the world would know in six months if recession fears materialise, however, the bigger concern for him was geopolitical headwinds.
“The most important thing is the geopolitics around Russia and Ukraine, America and China, relationships of the western world,” Mr Dimon told delegates during a panel discussion.
“That to me would be far more concerning than whether there’s a mild or slightly severe recession.”
The session was attended by Yasir Al Rumayyan, governor of the kingdom’s Public Investment Fund, Khaldoon Al Mubarak, Mubadala Investment Company managing director and chief executive, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, Catherine MacGregor, chief executive of Italian energy company ENGIE and Stephen Schwarzman, chairman of Blackstone Group.
The FII, in its sixth attrition this year, comes amid the weakening global economic outlook, surging inflation, the war in Ukraine and elevated energy prices.
Opec+ this month took the decision to cut oil output by two million barrels per day to stabilise oil markets, a decision criticised by the US administration. Oil producers have rallied behind Saudi Arabia, which along with Russia leads the super group of crude producers, after ire from Washington over the decision to cap production.
Mr Dimon, however, said the two nations had been allies for the more than 75 years, and they would work out their differences, but media hype did not help.
“I can’t imagine any allies agreeing on everything and not having problems,” Mr Dimon said. “They will work it through and I’m comfortable folks on both sides are working through this.”
Company: Instabug
Founded: 2013
Based: Egypt, Cairo
Sector: IT
Employees: 100
Stage: Series A
Investors: Flat6Labs, Accel, Y Combinator and angel investors
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EHayao%20Miyazaki%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%C2%A0Soma%20Santoki%2C%20Masaki%20Suda%2C%20Ko%20Shibasaki%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ziina users can donate to relief efforts in Beirut
Ziina users will be able to use the app to help relief efforts in Beirut, which has been left reeling after an August blast caused an estimated $15 billion in damage and left thousands homeless. Ziina has partnered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to raise money for the Lebanese capital, co-founder Faisal Toukan says. “As of October 1, the UNHCR has the first certified badge on Ziina and is automatically part of user's top friends' list during this campaign. Users can now donate any amount to the Beirut relief with two clicks. The money raised will go towards rebuilding houses for the families that were impacted by the explosion.”
ENGLAND SQUAD
For first two Test in India Joe Root (captain), Jofra Archer, Moeen Ali, James Anderson , Dom Bess, Stuart Broad , Rory Burns, Jos Buttler, Zak Crawley, Ben Foakes, Dan Lawrence, Jack Leach, Dom Sibley, Ben Stokes, Olly Stone, Chris Woakes. Reserves James Bracey, Mason Crane, Saqib Mahmood, Matthew Parkinson, Ollie Robinson, Amar Virdi.
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%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Khodar%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cairo%20and%20Alexandria%2C%20in%20Egypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ayman%20Hamza%2C%20Yasser%20Eidrous%20and%20Amr%20El%20Sheikh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20agriculture%20technology%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500%2C000%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Saudi%20Arabia%E2%80%99s%20Revival%20Lab%20and%20others%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EEmployees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Previous men's records
- 2:01:39: Eliud Kipchoge (KEN) on 16/9/19 in Berlin
- 2:02:57: Dennis Kimetto (KEN) on 28/09/2014 in Berlin
- 2:03:23: Wilson Kipsang (KEN) on 29/09/2013 in Berlin
- 2:03:38: Patrick Makau (KEN) on 25/09/2011 in Berlin
- 2:03:59: Haile Gebreselassie (ETH) on 28/09/2008 in Berlin
- 2:04:26: Haile Gebreselassie (ETH) on 30/09/2007 in Berlin
- 2:04:55: Paul Tergat (KEN) on 28/09/2003 in Berlin
- 2:05:38: Khalid Khannouchi (USA) 14/04/2002 in London
- 2:05:42: Khalid Khannouchi (USA) 24/10/1999 in Chicago
- 2:06:05: Ronaldo da Costa (BRA) 20/09/1998 in Berlin
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Stamp%20duty%20timeline
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Director: Romany Saad
Starring: Mirfat Amin, Boumi Fouad and Tariq Al Ibyari
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Four motivational quotes from Alicia's Dubai talk
“The only thing we need is to know that we have faith. Faith and hope in our own dreams. The belief that, when we keep going we’re going to find our way. That’s all we got.”
“Sometimes we try so hard to keep things inside. We try so hard to pretend it’s not really bothering us. In some ways, that hurts us more. You don’t realise how dishonest you are with yourself sometimes, but I realised that if I spoke it, I could let it go.”
“One good thing is to know you’re not the only one going through it. You’re not the only one trying to find your way, trying to find yourself, trying to find amazing energy, trying to find a light. Show all of yourself. Show every nuance. All of your magic. All of your colours. Be true to that. You can be unafraid.”
“It’s time to stop holding back. It’s time to do it on your terms. It’s time to shine in the most unbelievable way. It’s time to let go of negativity and find your tribe, find those people that lift you up, because everybody else is just in your way.”
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
Mazen Abukhater, principal and actuary at global consultancy Mercer, Middle East, says the company’s Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index - which benchmarks 34 pension schemes across the globe to assess their adequacy, sustainability and integrity - included Saudi Arabia for the first time this year to offer a glimpse into the region.
The index highlighted fundamental issues for all 34 countries, such as a rapid ageing population and a low growth / low interest environment putting pressure on expected returns. It also highlighted the increasing popularity around the world of defined contribution schemes.
“Average life expectancy has been increasing by about three years every 10 years. Someone born in 1947 is expected to live until 85 whereas someone born in 2007 is expected to live to 103,” Mr Abukhater told the Mena Pensions Conference.
“Are our systems equipped to handle these kind of life expectancies in the future? If so many people retire at 60, they are going to be in retirement for 43 years – so we need to adapt our retirement age to our changing life expectancy.”
Saudi Arabia came in the middle of Mercer’s ranking with a score of 58.9. The report said the country's index could be raised by improving the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and increasing the labour force participation rate at older ages as life expectancies rise.
Mr Abukhater said the challenges of an ageing population, increased life expectancy and some individuals relying solely on their government for financial support in their retirement years will put the system under strain.
“To relieve that pressure, governments need to consider whether it is time to switch to a defined contribution scheme so that individuals can supplement their own future with the help of government support,” he said.
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
SPECS
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