River cruise boats are parked on the Nile River in Cairo, Egypt. The Sheraton hotel can be seen in the background. Amr Abdallah Dalsh/Reuters
River cruise boats are parked on the Nile River in Cairo, Egypt. The Sheraton hotel can be seen in the background. Amr Abdallah Dalsh/Reuters
River cruise boats are parked on the Nile River in Cairo, Egypt. The Sheraton hotel can be seen in the background. Amr Abdallah Dalsh/Reuters
River cruise boats are parked on the Nile River in Cairo, Egypt. The Sheraton hotel can be seen in the background. Amr Abdallah Dalsh/Reuters

Economics 101: Terrorism rarely destroys tourism for good


Omar Al Ubaydli
  • English
  • Arabic

A couple of weeks ago, The National reported that Egypt's tourism receipts had increased by 54 per cent during the first seven months of 2017, compared to the corresponding period in 2016.

The most populous Arab country has suffered greatly economically since the beginning of a political roller coaster in 2011, with much of the damage being reflected in shrinking tourism. Have acts of terrorism, such as the 2015 crash of a Russian plane in the Sinai Peninsula, played a role in hamstringing the Egyptian economy?

Many scholars have investigated the impact of terrorism on international tourism, with two recent contributions coming from the Hong Kong-based researchers Anyu Liu and Stephen Pratt in the 2017 volume of the academic journal Tourism Management; and Australian-based researchers Shrabani Saha and Ghialy Yap in the 2014 volume of the Journal of Travel Research.

Before discussing their findings, it is worth clarifying the theoretical link between terrorism and tourism. Part is obvious: when a terrorist attack occurs, prospective tourists may exhibit greater reluctance as they fear becoming victims of future terrorist attacks. Beyond this, there is the damage to important infrastructure and its downstream effects, as well as the adverse consequences for foreign direct investment, which often furnishes the tourism destination with critical capital.

Ostensibly, countries such as Egypt appear to have suffered according to these mechanisms; in particular, Russia - a historically important economic partner and source of tourisms - still bans flights directly from its territory to Egypt, as a direct consequence of the loss of its civilian jet in 2015. But can terrorism account for the broader declines in tourism revenues experienced by Egypt throughout the last six years?

The above pairs of researchers have found that in general, tourism is not adversely affected by terrorism, especially when that terrorism comes in the form of infrequent attacks, such as those faced by Egypt. While terrorist attacks tend to cause an immediate, noticeable decline in tourism demand, revenues are typically quite resilient, recovering in a matter of months. Secular declines in tourism activity are much more likely to be the result of protracted periods of political instability, due to its crippling effect on all components of the economy.

_______________

Read more:

Economics 101: Why did Mayweather earn so much more than McGregor?

Economics 101: Sharjah science park research sets finely finessed example

Economics 101: Right from the start, governments really have not liked Uber

_______________

Why does terrorism tend to have a modest effect, despite the frequently hysterical media coverage?

The simple answer is “rationality”. A key goal for most terrorists is making the general public feel unsafe, through headline-grabbing acts of violence. They want you to feel that something which you regard as completely routine - such as going to the grocery store, or withdrawing money from an ATM - is a risky act.

The problem for terrorists is that, in many cases, this is an illusion. A cold hard look at the probabilities associated with being the victim of a terrorist attack suggests that it is tough to justify a need to change your daily habits in response to acts of terrorism.

For example, in a recent article by CATO Institute’s Alex Nowrasteh summarising findings on the issue, it turned out that the annual chance of dying in a terrorist attack in the UK in the period 2001-2017 was 1-in-9,000,000, compared to 1-in-600,000 during the period 1975-2000. Both figures are very small, and most would be surprised to hear that salient terrorist attacks that have happened in the UK during the last 17 years, including the 2005 London Underground bombs, have not contributed to a statistically more hazardous life for UK residents.

In the context of tourism, once prospective tourists get over the initial shock of seeing wanton acts of destruction on their television sets and Twitter feeds, they quickly realise that the actual likelihood of being a victim is minuscule. They may also be emboldened by authorities truthfully reporting that expressing fear is precisely the terrorists’ goal, and that a valiant response revolves around exhibiting defiance, and an insistence on living one’s life as normal.

Beyond this, the price mechanism helps; exchange rates, hotel rates, and flight prices all exhibit elevated levels of flexibility, meaning that a terrorist attack - and the subsequent reluctance to engage in economic activity - will be swiftly reflected in touristic bargains. For many, the temptation to take advantage of a good deal is too strong to resist, which helps initiate a recovery in tourism demand, as people start to realise that their fears were a psychological overreaction.

These findings fall into a broader economics phenomenon: experience in real stakes market transactions helps people overcome their cognitive biases, such as the tendency to exaggerate the risk of being the victim of a terrorist attack. Seasoned travellers are most likely the least prone to the dissuasive effects of politically-motivated violence, just as experienced stock traders are less likely to fall prey to financial bubbles than are fresh investors.

Returning to the case of Egypt, the country experienced many decades of political stability under Hosni Mubarak, a key contributor to the country’s once-vibrant tourism sector. Combating terrorism should always be a priority; but from an economics perspective, ensuring and projecting political stability is of great value, too.

Omar Al-Ubaydli is the program director for International and Geo-Political studies at Derasat, Bahrain. We welcome economics questions from our readers via email (omar@omar.ec) or tweet (@omareconomics).

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills

THE SPECS

2020 Toyota Corolla Hybrid LE

Engine: 1.8 litre combined with 16-volt electric motors

Transmission: Automatic with manual shifting mode

Power: 121hp

Torque: 142Nm

Price: Dh95,900

CONFIRMED%20LINE-UP
%3Cp%3EElena%20Rybakina%20(Kazakhstan)%0D%3Cbr%3EOns%20Jabeur%20(Tunisia)%0D%3Cbr%3EMaria%20Sakkari%20(Greece)%0D%3Cbr%3EBarbora%20Krej%C4%8D%C3%ADkov%C3%A1%20(Czech%20Republic)%0D%3Cbr%3EBeatriz%20Haddad%20Maia%20(Brazil)%0D%3Cbr%3EJe%C4%BCena%20Ostapenko%20(Latvia)%0D%3Cbr%3ELiudmila%20Samsonova%0D%3Cbr%3EDaria%20Kasatkina%E2%80%AF%0D%3Cbr%3EVeronika%20Kudermetova%E2%80%AF%0D%3Cbr%3ECaroline%20Garcia%20(France)%E2%80%AF%0D%3Cbr%3EMagda%20Linette%20(Poland)%E2%80%AF%0D%3Cbr%3ESorana%20C%C3%AErstea%20(Romania)%E2%80%AF%0D%3Cbr%3EAnastasia%20Potapova%E2%80%AF%0D%3Cbr%3EAnhelina%20Kalinina%20(Ukraine)%E2%80%AF%E2%80%AF%0D%3Cbr%3EJasmine%20Paolini%20(Italy)%E2%80%AF%0D%3Cbr%3EEmma%20Navarro%20(USA)%E2%80%AF%0D%3Cbr%3ELesia%20Tsurenko%20(Ukraine)%0D%3Cbr%3ENaomi%20Osaka%20(Japan)%20-%20wildcard%0D%3Cbr%3EEmma%20Raducanu%20(Great%20Britain)%20-%20wildcard%3Cbr%3EAlexandra%20Eala%20(Philippines)%20-%20wildcard%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners

Jeff Buckley: From Hallelujah To The Last Goodbye
By Dave Lory with Jim Irvin

UAE squad to face Ireland

Ahmed Raza (captain), Chirag Suri (vice-captain), Rohan Mustafa, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Boota, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Waheed Ahmad, Zawar Farid, CP Rizwaan, Aryan Lakra, Karthik Meiyappan, Alishan Sharafu, Basil Hameed, Kashif Daud, Adithya Shetty, Vriitya Aravind

The specs

Engine: 1.5-litre turbo

Power: 181hp

Torque: 230Nm

Transmission: 6-speed automatic

Starting price: Dh79,000

On sale: Now

Tips to stay safe during hot weather
  • Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
  • Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
  • Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
  • Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
  • Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
  • Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
  • Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Structural%20weaknesses%20facing%20Israel%20economy
%3Cp%3E1.%20Labour%20productivity%20is%20lower%20than%20the%20average%20of%20the%20developed%20economies%2C%20particularly%20in%20the%20non-tradable%20industries.%3Cbr%3E2.%20The%20low%20level%20of%20basic%20skills%20among%20workers%20and%20the%20high%20level%20of%20inequality%20between%20those%20with%20various%20skills.%3Cbr%3E3.%20Low%20employment%20rates%2C%20particularly%20among%20Arab%20women%20and%20Ultra-Othodox%20Jewish%20men.%3Cbr%3E4.%20A%20lack%20of%20basic%20knowledge%20required%20for%20integration%20into%20the%20labour%20force%2C%20due%20to%20the%20lack%20of%20core%20curriculum%20studies%20in%20schools%20for%20Ultra-Othodox%20Jews.%3Cbr%3E5.%20A%20need%20to%20upgrade%20and%20expand%20physical%20infrastructure%2C%20particularly%20mass%20transit%20infrastructure.%3Cbr%3E6.%20The%20poverty%20rate%20at%20more%20than%20double%20the%20OECD%20average.%3Cbr%3E7.%20Population%20growth%20of%20about%202%20per%20cent%20per%20year%2C%20compared%20to%200.6%20per%20cent%20OECD%20average%20posing%20challenge%20for%20fiscal%20policy%20and%20underpinning%20pressure%20on%20education%2C%20health%20care%2C%20welfare%20housing%20and%20physical%20infrastructure%2C%20which%20will%20increase%20in%20the%20coming%20years.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Some of Darwish's last words

"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008

His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.

What are the GCSE grade equivalents?
 
  • Grade 9 = above an A*
  • Grade 8 = between grades A* and A
  • Grade 7 = grade A
  • Grade 6 = just above a grade B
  • Grade 5 = between grades B and C
  • Grade 4 = grade C
  • Grade 3 = between grades D and E
  • Grade 2 = between grades E and F
  • Grade 1 = between grades F and G
About Proto21

Date started: May 2018
Founder: Pir Arkam
Based: Dubai
Sector: Additive manufacturing (aka, 3D printing)
Staff: 18
Funding: Invested, supported and partnered by Joseph Group

Getting there

The flights

Flydubai operates up to seven flights a week to Helsinki. Return fares to Helsinki from Dubai start from Dh1,545 in Economy and Dh7,560 in Business Class.

The stay

Golden Crown Igloos in Levi offer stays from Dh1,215 per person per night for a superior igloo; www.leviniglut.net 

Panorama Hotel in Levi is conveniently located at the top of Levi fell, a short walk from the gondola. Stays start from Dh292 per night based on two people sharing; www. golevi.fi/en/accommodation/hotel-levi-panorama

Arctic Treehouse Hotel in Rovaniemi offers stays from Dh1,379 per night based on two people sharing; www.arctictreehousehotel.com

Bawaal%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nitesh%20Tiwari%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Varun%20Dhawan%2C%20Janhvi%20Kapoor%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
While you're here
MATCH INFO

FA Cup final

Chelsea 1
Hazard (22' pen)

Manchester United 0

Man of the match: Eden Hazard (Chelsea)