An oil complex on the coast of the Arabian Gulf. As countries emerge from Covid-19 containment, policy makers need to plan for a post-pandemic world, which underscores the need to create a new development model that reduces reliance on oil revenues, accelerates economic diversification, and fiscal consolidation.  EPA
An oil complex on the coast of the Arabian Gulf. As countries emerge from Covid-19 containment, policy makers need to plan for a post-pandemic world, which underscores the need to create a new developShow more

How GCC countries can adapt policies for a post Covid-19 world



Covid19 continues to be part of life as we know it. The GCC nations are gradually emerging from lockdown. There are nodes of optimism as the number of recoveries outpace the confirmed cases, including in the UAE.

Stimulus packages across the GCC included a number of common policy actions - rate cuts, liquidity enhancing measures, deferment of loans and credit card payments. Also noteworthy is the support extended to small and medium sizes enterprises (SMEs) and affected sectors impacted by the pandemic-induced lockdowns which include tourism, hospitality and aviation.

After almost 3 months of lockdowns, countries are phasing their recovery plans. As we gradually emerge from Covid-19 containment, policy makers need to plan for a transformed post-pandemic world, which underscores the need to create a new development model.

For the GCC countries, this means reviewing three broad policy measures related to monetary and fiscal policies as well as structural reforms.

Most GCC nations are pegged to the dollar except for Kuwait which pegs its dinar to a basket including the greenback. Hence, the countries follow the Fed’s interest rate moves, which may limit the use of other instruments of monetary policy and might restrict other policy moves from the central banks other than stimulus packages to increase liquidity.

So what can the central banks do to support their economies, while maintaining a peg or moving to a currency basket? Two innovative ways of providing support would be the establishment of GCC central bank swap lines and monetising new government debt issued for deficit financing.

The establishment of GCC central bank swap lines, with an option for the larger central banks (SAMA, UAE) to tap the Fed or People’s Bank of China (PBoC) would enable regional central banks to tap additional liquidity during times of market stress, support financial stability and provide a liquidity backstop.

Monetising new government debt issued for deficit financing can help avoid the crowding out of the private sector and inject liquidity, given the lack of developed local currency debt markets and central banks’ limited ability to conduct open market operations.

On the fiscal policy front as part of their pivot towards diversifying their economies and becoming less reliant on oil revenues, a move towards deficit financing along with the institution of fiscal rules for long-term fiscal sustainability can help accelerate the development of local currency debt and mortgage markets to finance housing and long-term infrastructure projects.

Rationalising government spending either by reducing the size of government, shifting activities to the private sector, and moving to targeted subsidies is another element of fiscal reform. In conjunction governments can issue long term debt that can be bought by central banks during a crisis period which is happening in the US and Europe today.

Diversify government revenues by improving the management of public commercial assets and increasing the efficiency of tax collection is an important element of fiscal reform. Consolidating the large number of fees and charges on consumers and businesses into fewer broad-based taxes, can help lower business and living costs.

The Covid pandemic is also an incentive for “Green New Deals” through investment in public health, domestic AgriTech for food security, renewable energy, clean cities and technologies, that will support job creation and economic diversification. Governments can take the first step to ensure a project pipeline, focusing on public-private partnerships, with targeted incentives for SME participation.

Accelerating the digitisation drive will also lower the cost of broadband internet and accessibility while speeding up the implementation of 5G.

The establishment of social safety nets and protection programs and pension schemes will also help reduce financial burdens that can come around in periods of crisis. For employees, a contribution towards a pension fund would ensure sufficient savings in the event of job losses or retirement and for employers, this provides them with an investment fund and support end-of-service or gratuity payments.

Structural reforms including the acceleration of privatisation, working closer with private sector participation is key. Developing insolvency frameworks to support out-of-court settlement, corporate restructuring and adequately protect creditors’ rights is another important element. Enhancing the environment that continues to attract and retain human capital through a permanent residency programme could help generate significant economic gains.

A positive side-effect of Covid-19 is the realisation that working from home is a feasible option. Companies can offer flexible work options, reduce office space and rents, while employees can stay at cheaper home locations, save on rents, and telecommute. To realise these benefits, requires removing barriers by amending labour laws and liberalising voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP).

The Covid-19 perfect storm is an unprecedented opportunity for the GCC countries for a policy reset, to steer toward a new development model for a post-pandemic world and move away from business as usual.

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
2024%20Dubai%20Marathon%20Results
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Cricket World Cup League 2

UAE squad

Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind

Fixtures

Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE

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World Cricket League Division 2

In Windhoek, Namibia - Top two teams qualify for the World Cup Qualifier in Zimbabwe, which starts on March 4.

UAE fixtures

Thursday February 8, v Kenya; Friday February 9, v Canada; Sunday February 11, v Nepal; Monday February 12, v Oman; Wednesday February 14, v Namibia; Thursday February 15, final

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Dirham Stretcher tips for having a baby in the UAE

Selma Abdelhamid, the group's moderator, offers her guide to guide the cost of having a young family:

• Buy second hand stuff

 They grow so fast. Don't get a second hand car seat though, unless you 100 per cent know it's not expired and hasn't been in an accident.

• Get a health card and vaccinate your child for free at government health centres

 Ms Ma says she discovered this after spending thousands on vaccinations at private clinics.

• Join mum and baby coffee mornings provided by clinics, babysitting companies or nurseries.

Before joining baby classes ask for a free trial session. This way you will know if it's for you or not. You'll be surprised how great some classes are and how bad others are.

• Once baby is ready for solids, cook at home

Take the food with you in reusable pouches or jars. You'll save a fortune and you'll know exactly what you're feeding your child.

Sam Smith

Where: du Arena, Abu Dhabi

When: Saturday November 24

Rating: 4/5

THE SPECS

Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder

Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)

Power: 141bhp 

Torque: 250Nm 

Price: Dh64,500

On sale: Now

Electoral College Victory

Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate. 

 

Popular Vote Tally

The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.

The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
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The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

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