If I was an American voter (and I am not), I would be a single-issue voter. That single issue would be Iraq. Unfortunately for me, and close to 40 million other Iraqis, there are hardly any American voters who would choose Iraq as the single issue that determines how they vote. And while Iraq featured as an issue to consider during the elections in 2004 and 2008, in 2020 it has hardly been referred to on the campaign trail. The one reference made to Iraq by the incumbent President concerns troop withdrawal – linked in with Afghanistan. President Donald Trump promises to reduce American presence in both countries.
Since 1990, Iraq has, in one way or the other, been impacted by which presidential candidate America chooses, the President’s approach to foreign policy and what domestic pressures the commander-in-chief faces that leads to particular foreign policy measures. The re-election of George W Bush in 2004 was, in part, due to his pledge to wage a “war on terror”. In 2008, Barack Obama promised “to end the war”, which effectively meant withdrawing troops from Iraq without really ending the violence there. Both presidents left their marks on Iraq and its trajectory through their foreign policy doctrines. This is less the case during the Trump administration, partly because, 17 years after the war that removed Saddam Hussein, Iraq is less consequential to the United States.
The presidential elections of 2020 will have far-reaching ramifications because of the different approaches of the two candidates. And while American strategic interests will ultimately determine the wide strokes of US foreign policy, whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden wins next month, their approach to Iraq would vary.
Over nearly four years, Mr Trump’s position on Iraq was largely dictated by two strategic interests: defeating ISIS and confronting Iran and its expansionist regional policies. On ISIS, Mr Trump can claim victory with the killing of ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi and preventing the militant group from holding Iraqi territory anymore. One of the defining factors for Mr Trump’s handling of Iraq, compared to his predecessor, is his administration’s clear understanding of Iran’s role in destabilising the country. While Obama administration officials would often repeat the mantra that Iran has a “natural role in Iraq”, Trump administration officials reject the idea of Iran wielding control over small armies of militias in the country and over-extending its reach in political decision-making in Baghdad.
The decision to target the most high profile Iranian general, Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani, in January in Baghdad was part of a wider strategy to curtail Iran’s military activities in the region. Targeted drone strikes have been part of America’s toolkit for some time, but in this case, one was used against a well-known official representing a state. The hit on Suleimani was the clearest signal from the US that it will not continue to appease Iran and its military ambitions in Iraq.
However, that might change if the US ends up with a Biden presidency. Mr Biden and the foreign policy team that worked with him under the Obama administration and on the campaign have had a track record of trying to accommodate Iran. In an op-ed published on CNN.com last month, Mr Biden said “I will offer Tehran a credible path back to diplomacy”, while promising “if Iran chooses confrontation, I am prepared to defend our vital interests and our troops”. However, Mr Biden does not see Iraq as part of his country’s vital interests.
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First-time voter Vanessa Sinnott, who became an American citizen three years ago, waits in line at City Hall to cast her ballot for the upcoming presidential election as early voting begins in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA. Reuters -
John Eddy, 52, gestures as he collects absentee ballots from voters as they drive past the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections in Cleveland, Ohio. AFP -
Election official Scott Hagara, right, checks in a voter at the board of elections headquarters during early voting in Painesville, Ohio. AFP -
A voter fills an official mail-in ballot answering the proposition 22 question in Los Angeles, California. EPA -
A woman looks at sample ballots while waiting at City Hall to cast her ballot for the upcoming presidential election as early voting begins in New Orleans, Louisiana. Reuters -
Residents of Cuyahoga county fill out paper ballots for early, in person voting at the board of elections office in downtown Cleveland, Ohio. AFP -
Supporters look to the stage from their car as Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at Michigan State Fairgrounds in Novi, Michigan. AP Photo -
A supporter records Democratic Presidential candidate and former US Vice President Joe Biden as he speaks at a car rally at the Michigan State Fairgrounds in Detroit, Michigan. AFP -
US Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden walks towards a stage to deliver remarks during a voter mobilization event at the Michigan State Fairgrounds in Novi, Michigan. Reuters -
US Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks to journalists before boarding his campaign plane following campaign stops, at the Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport in Romulus, Michigan. Reuters -
Democratic Georgia State Representative Vernon Jones, a supporter of Republican US President Donald J. Trump, surfs the crowd before Trump arrives to participate in his Make America Great Again Rally campaign event at Middle Georgia Regional Airport in Macon, Georgia. EPA -
US President Donald J. Trump dances after speaking during his Make America Great Again Rally campaign event at Middle Georgia Regional Airport. EPA -
US President Donald J. Trump gestures to supporters after speaking at his Make America Great Again Rally campaign event at Middle Georgia Regional Airport. EPA -
Attendees cheer and hold up signs as US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Macon, Georgia. AFP
More importantly, Iraqis are weary of the possibility of a Biden administration due to his historical stance on Iraq. As Senator, Mr Biden advocated for the division of Iraq along crude sectarian and ethnic lines. His proposed “Biden plan”, developed with senior adviser Leslie Gelb, in 2006 proposed a division of Iraq that troubles Iraqis until today. Mr Biden lobbied in Washington and at the UN for the proposal. If he were voted in, Iraqis would be looking for reassurances that he would not try to resuscitate this destructive proposal. Otherwise, militants from a variety of political viewpoints will seek to weaken the Iraqi state and take advantage of the disarray a perception of American support for division could create.
The US elections will impact Iraq one way or the other. Yet, they represent just one of a myriad of factors that will determine the course of 2021, particularly whether the current government can manage the economic crises facing the country. For Iraqis seeking a country that provides prosperity and protection, for those who have not been paid wages in months, for those who have loved ones kidnapped or disappeared and for over a million Iraqis who are internally displaced, US elections hardly make a difference.
The reality is that Iraq will remain in dire straits so long as elections half-way across the world can have such an immediate impact on the country. Foreign interference and influence is a product of a weakened and ineffectual state. What is required is for Iraq’s own political processes and elections to be strengthened and to deliver the change for which so many Iraqis yearn. Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi has fulfilled his promise of aiming to hold elections next June. Iraqi ballot boxes, not American ones, must be what determine Iraq’s future. Whoever the American president is by then, he should aim to support the Iraqi state and its institutions as the most effective way forward.
Mina Al-Oraibi is editor-in-chief of The National
