A worker at an oil refinery in Kurdistan.
A worker at an oil refinery in Kurdistan.

Bickering in Iraq over oil revenue hurts country



A long-running oil dispute between two centres of power in Iraq has reignited.

Exports from Iraqi Kurdistan, the semi-autonomous region in the country's north, have slowed from 160,000 to 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) over the past two weeks.

The Kurdish regional government said in a statement that the drop stemmed from difficulties with export infrastructure, while Abdul-Kareem Luaibi, the oil minister in Baghdad, said the decline would hurt the economy in Kurdistan and the rest of Iraq.

"The first loser is going to be the Kurdish people as they will lose 17 per cent of the value of their stopped production," Mr Luaibi said this week.

The real reason Kurdistan reduced exports, according to unnamed Iraqi oil ministry officials quoted by Dow Jones, was that Baghdad had been delaying payments for crude.

Exports from Kurdistan have been flowing only since February, when Erbil and Baghdad agreed to an interim agreement in which Erbil receives 17 per cent of the national budget. Before that, Erbil had stopped exports because of a dispute with Baghdad over how to share revenue and who would pay oil companies for the costs of exploration and production.

During the year-long moratorium, DNO International, a Norwegian producer that was the first to strike oil in Kurdistan and in which the UAE's RAK Petroleum owns a 30 per cent stake, was forced to sell oil locally at lower prices. It received its first payment from Baghdad this year.

Other companies with investments there include Sinopec, Gulf Keystone and Heritage Oil.

Kurdistan's crude represents a small share of Iraq's overall exports, which totalled 2.1 million bpd last month. But that share is expected to grow as foreign investors flock to Kurdistan, and Baghdad is banking on that flow to help it reach its 12 million bpd pumping target.

The latest arrival is Vallares, the US$2.1 billion (Dh7.71bn) energy investment vehicle backed by Tony Hayward, the former BP chief, and Nat Rothschild, a financier. Last week it confirmed that it would merge with Genel Enerji, a Turkish company that pumps oil in Iraqi Kurdistan.

The outcome of that investment depends on a national oil law that is awaiting approval in the Iraqi parliament. The document drew ire from Erbil, which said it had not been consulted on the draft.

A question on the minds of oil companies is whether contracts signed with Kurdistan will be deemed valid. Baghdad has said that companies operating in Kurdistan will not be allowed to bid on Iraq's other oil fields. The ministry has opened up concessions with an estimated 10 billion barrels in reserves.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Name: The Protein Bakeshop

Date of start: 2013

Founders: Rashi Chowdhary and Saad Umerani

Based: Dubai

Size, number of employees: 12

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