The US decision to lift its ban on selling offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia not only brings a key security partner in the Middle East back to the fold, but also Washington's biggest customer.
The Biden administration reversed the three-year-old policy this month, which was originally meant to pressure the kingdom over its involvement in the Yemen war – a move that the US may now be regretting given its own need to curb the Houthis now. Saudi Arabia – the main recipient of US arms exports from 2019-2023, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), could boost revenue that made up 15 per cent of total US global arms exports at the time.
"[There is] quite a large amount of arms going to Saudi [Arabia]," Mathew George, director of the arms transfers programme at Sipri, who anticipates that will increase with the lifting of the restrictions.
It is not clear how much offensive weapons, described in part as air-to-ground munitions by the State Department on August 9, would contribute to total US weapons exports to the kingdom.
The US is expected to send shipments of thousands of bombs to Saudi Arabia worth more than $750 million in the coming months after lifting the embargo, The Wall Street Journal previously reported.
Fluctuating exports
The US accounted for 66 per cent of Saudi Arabia's arms imports from 2014-2018, according to Sipri data.
The leading weapons exporter represented 75 per cent of Saudi Arabia's total imports from 2019-2023, which fell 28 per cent between the two time frames.
Saudi Arabia accounted for 15 per cent of total US global arms exports over the past four years as Washington increased its overall weapons sales. The US share of total global arms exports rose to 42 per cent between 2019 and 2023 and delivered major weapons to 107 countries during that period.
The US was also the biggest arms supplier to Ukraine and Israel from 2019-2023, representing 39 per cent and 69 per cent of their respective total arms imports. Former president Barack Obama signed an agreement with Israel covering the fiscal years 2019-2018. Valued at $3.8 billion a year, the deal includes $33 billion in military financing funds and a $5 billion commitment to missile defence assistance.
Congress this year also passed an arms package allocating $60 billion in aid to Ukraine and $4 billion towards replenishing Israel's missile defence system. To date, the US has provided $55.4 billion in military aid to Ukraine since Russia's invasion on February 24, 2022, according to the State Department.
The only other countries representing 10 per cent or more of global arms exports during that time were France and Russia, both at 11 per cent. Total US foreign military sales rose from $51.9 billion in the 2022 fiscal year to $80.9 billion in 2023, representing an increase of 55.9 per cent. The department noted it was the highest annual total of sales and assistance provided to US allies and partners.
What this potentially means for exact revenue the US can receive is far more uncertain, Mr George explained, noting such a figure would not be known until an organisation or foreign state makes a price inquiry to the US Defence Security Co-operation Agency.
As of 2023, the State Department said Saudi Arabia's defence establishment is the largest customer for US foreign military sales, with individual sales valued at more than $140 million.
In a statement at the time, the department said the partnership "is predicated on our shared interest in security in the Gulf and deterring any foreign or regional power from threatening the region".
Still, the value of arms and ammunition the US has exported to Saudi Arabia recently declined. Weapons exports were valued at $350.7 million in 2022, according to the Bureau of Industry and Security, down from $604.1 million in 2021. The value increased to $391.04 million last year.
The State Department also said it had notified Congress of a direct commercial sale of a Patriot guided missile to the Royal Saudi Air Defence Forces last year, valued at $1 billion.
Saudi Arabia was also a major arms buyer during former president Donald Trump's administration. During his visit to the kingdom in 2017, the US government announced an agreement with Saudi Arabia valued at $350 billion over 10 years and $110 billion that was made immediately available at the time.
And in 2019, Mr Trump announced the sale of an $8 billion weapons package to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan, sidestepping congressional approval by issuing an emergency declaration.
Too little too late?
While lifting the ban brings a valuable business partner back into the fold, it also signals a continued shift by the Biden administration to rely on a key partner in the Middle East.
Mr George said having a strong Saudi Arabia also helps US security interests in the region.
“The understanding right now would be to make sure that you have other allies in the region that can support you,” Mr George said, noting continued tensions in the Red Sea and the Houthis.
And while lifting the ban does help US security interests in the Middle East, Brian Katulis, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, wondered if the Biden administration had moved too late to lift the ban.
The ban was imposed in 2021 when the Biden administration said it was ending its support for offensive operations in the Yemeni conflict. The State Department announced last week it was lifting the ban six months before it was set to formally expire, saying Saudi Arabia has continued to comply with the conditions of the 2022 truce in Yemen that remains intact.
“It was very much related to this … belated realisation that the initial ideas that the Biden team had coming into office in 2021 on how to best resolve the Yemen war were misguided at best,” he said.
While on the 2020 campaign trail, Mr Biden said his administration would take a tougher stance on Saudi Arabia. Since then, Mr Biden has made numerous diplomatic overtures to Riyadh, including a visit to the kingdom in 2022, and has attempted to secure an agreement in which Saudi Arabia would establish relations with Israel. Riyadh has also been a critical partner throughout the Gaza war.
“It's just surprising me that it took this long … but it's good they got to this point,” Mr Katulis said. "It raises the question, though, whether this will be a little too late."
