In this file picture from June 23, 2014,ISIL fighters parade in a commandeered Iraqi security forces armored vehicle down a main road in Mosul, Iraq. AP Photo
In this file picture from June 23, 2014,ISIL fighters parade in a commandeered Iraqi security forces armored vehicle down a main road in Mosul, Iraq. AP Photo

With incentives and brute force, ISIL subdues tribes



BEIRUT // ISIL is employing multiple tactics to subdue the Sunni tribes in Syria and Iraq under its rule, wooing some with gifts while brutally suppressing those that resist with mass killings.

The result is that the extremists face little immediate threat of an uprising by the tribes, which are traditionally the most powerful social institution in the large areas of eastern Syria and northern and western Iraq controlled by the group. Any US drive to try to turn tribesmen against the militants, as the Americans did with Sunnis during the Iraq war, faces an uphill battle.

Some tribes in Syria and Iraq already oppose ISIL. The Shammar tribe, which spans the countries’ border, has fought alongside Kurdish forces against the extremists in Iraq. The US and Iraqi governments have proposed creating a national guard programme that would arm and pay tribesmen to fight, though the effort has yet to get off the ground.

But in Syria in particular, tribes have no outside patron to bankroll or arm them to take on IS, leaving them with few options other than to bend to ISIL domination or flee.

“There are people who want to go back and fight them,” said Hassan Hassan, an analyst with the Delma Institute in Abu Dhabi and columnist for The National. “But the circumstances now mean that you can’t provoke ISIS because the strategy they’ve followed and tactics are to prevent any revolt from inside.”

The rulers of the self-styled caliphate have mastered techniques of divide and rule. Tribes are powerful institutions that command the loyalty of their members across the largely desert regions of Syria and Iraq. But they are also far from cohesive. Large tribes are divided up into smaller sub-tribes and clans that can be pitted against each other. Such divisions also emerge on their own, often in connection to control over local resources like oil wells or land.

Also, the ISIL itself has roots in the tribes. Though hundreds of foreign fighters have flocked to join the group, most of its leaders and foot soldiers are Iraqis and Syrians — and often belong to tribes.

In eastern Syria’s Deir El Zour province the Ogeidat is one of the largest tribes. One of its major clans, the Bu Jamel, has been a staunch opponent of the extremists. Another, the Bakir, long ago allied itself to the group.

ISIL operatives use threats or offers of money or fuel to win public pledges of loyalty from senior tribal sheikhs. The group has also wooed younger tribesmen with economic enticements and promises of positions within ISIL, undermining the traditional power structure of the tribe.

“They offer many sweeteners,” said Abu Ali Al Badie, a tribal leader from the central city of Palmyra in Syria’s Homs province. “They go to the tribes and say, ‘Why are you fighting against Muslims? We’ll give you weapons and cars and guns, and we’ll fight together.”’

“They offer diesel and fuel. They bring barley and animal feed from Iraq,” he said. “They build wells at their own expense for the tribes and they say, ‘Others have neglected your needs.”’

In Syria, ISIL has won the acceptance of many tribesmen in Raqqa and Deir El Zour provinces by ending chaos that reigned when the areas were controlled by a patchwork of rebel warlords. ISIL provides services including electricity, fuel, water and telephone lines, as well as flour for bakeries, said Haian Dukhan, a researcher at the University of St Andrews Centre for Syrian Studies.

“Things have started to become stable to a degree, and this is something that people were really desperate about,” said Mr Dukhan.

The group has “tribal affairs” officials to handle relations with the tribes, calibrating its style to local dynamics. Often they will allow loyal tribesmen to run their communities’ services, said Mr Hassan.

The group also has removed its own commanders who caused tension with tribes in their areas. The idea, Mr Hassan said, is “to remove some of the toxins.”

At the same time, the group sends a clear message to those who resist.

In August, ISIL militants shot and beheaded hundreds of members of the Shueitat tribe in eastern Syria. Activists reported death tolls ranging from 200 to 700. Photographs in ISIL’s English-language “Dabiq” magazine showed black-clad fighters shooting prisoners said to be Shueitat, lined up on the sandy ground.

In Iraq, ISIL killed more than 200 men, women and children from the Al Bu Nimr tribe in Anbar province, apparently in revenge for the tribe’s siding with security forces and, in the past, with American troops. It has also shot dead several men from the Al Bu Fahd tribe.

“Everyone is hiding or fled. They will chop us in pieces if they see us,” said Sheikh Naim Al Gaoud, a leader in the Al Bu Nimr. “They want us to support them and to join their fight. In return, they say they will let us live in peace.”

As a result, Mr Dukhan says there’s little chance for a revolt unless tribes are confident the extremists are losing.

“I think that for the time being, seeing a large-scale uprising against IS is just a fantasy.”

*Associated Press

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”