A money exchanger counts US dollars next to Lebanese pounds at a currency exchange shop in Beirut. Reuters
A money exchanger counts US dollars next to Lebanese pounds at a currency exchange shop in Beirut. Reuters
A money exchanger counts US dollars next to Lebanese pounds at a currency exchange shop in Beirut. Reuters
A money exchanger counts US dollars next to Lebanese pounds at a currency exchange shop in Beirut. Reuters

How would a US debt default affect the Middle East?


Jihan Abdalla
  • English
  • Arabic

President Joe Biden and House Republicans are currently deadlocked over the possibility of raising the debt ceiling, drawing the US closer to a potential default, which would have global consequences.

If the crisis is not resolved within the next 10 days, the US could fall headlong into a recession – but the American economy would not be the only one affected.

Here's how a US debt default would affect the Middle East.

What impact would a US debt default have on the Mena region?

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Iraq, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar all hold significant sums in US treasuries and would see massive contractions in their financial markets.

Others with large debt finance, such as Egypt and Lebanon, would also be hit hard.

The US also plays a critical role in the geographic distribution of assets in the sovereign wealth fund portfolios of oil- and gas-producing countries in the Middle East, according to experts.

So, if the stock prices of publicly listed US companies or the values of other assets plunge, these regional sovereign wealth funds will feel the pain.

What would happen to the value of the US dollar?

A US default is likely to wreak havoc on financial markets across the Middle East.

The US dollar has, since the end of the Second World War, been the world's top choice for currency reserves held by central banks and foreign institutions – and those in the Middle East are no exception.

More than half the world's currency reserves are held in US dollars and the currency has long been considered one of the world's most secure assets.

Any hit to confidence in the US economy due to a default or uncertainty would cause investors to sell US treasury bonds, which would, in turn, weaken the dollar.

What would happen to the price of oil?

Oil prices would be affected as part of a broader precipitation of a global economic slowdown that will push prices down, experts say.

Already on Monday, crude oil prices fell amid ongoing concerns about the continued deadlock in negotiations.

“The debt ceiling and/or an actual default would set the stage for a longer-term economic downturn, where you have persistently low-energy prices for the foreseeable future in a poor macroeconomic environment,” Robert Mogielnicki, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told The National.

“That combination is going to be a really tricky situation to turn into something positive on the domestic front for these governments.”

What would happen to more fragile Mena economies?

A weakened US dollar would make payments more expensive for low-income countries that are already struggling with debt, as well as create new global and geopolitical uncertainty.

“It would make the job that they nations need to do – fiscal reforms and other steps to either stabilise their economies or make them more sustainable – even harder to do,” Mr Mogielnicki said.

The impact would be heavily felt in Egypt and Lebanon, in particular, as well as countries in North Africa.

Could Mena start to rely more on the Chinese yuan?

Mr Mogielnicki said that a major change in value of the US dollar would drive debates in Gulf Co-operation Council countries over de-dollarisation, or reducing reliance on the greenback as a reserve currency and medium of exchange.

Despite weakening exports from China to western countries, the yuan has been gaining more importance in international trade amid growth of its share of global trade settlement currency.

“It would add fuel to the fire to ongoing conversations about de-dollarisation,” Mr Mogielnicki said.

“This type of event in Washington would vindicate the position in favour of advocating for seeking a strategy to engage with other currencies in the global system.”

Sole survivors
  • Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
  • George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
  • Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
  • Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Specs

Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request

Blonde
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The specs

Engine: Two permanent-magnet synchronous AC motors

Transmission: two-speed

Power: 671hp

Torque: 849Nm

Range: 456km

Price: from Dh437,900 

On sale: now

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SPECS

Toyota land Cruiser 2020 5.7L VXR

Engine: 5.7-litre V8

Transmission: eight-speed automatic

Power: 362hp

Torque: 530Nm

Price: Dh329,000 (base model 4.0L EXR Dh215,900)

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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How%20to%20avoid%20getting%20scammed
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW

Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman

Director: Jesse Armstrong

Rating: 3.5/5

Dust and sand storms compared

Sand storm

  • Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
  • Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
  • Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
  • Travel distance: Limited 
  • Source: Open desert areas with strong winds

Dust storm

  • Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
  • Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
  • Duration: Can linger for days
  • Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
  • Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Credit Score explained

What is a credit score?

In the UAE your credit score is a number generated by the Al Etihad Credit Bureau (AECB), which represents your credit worthiness – in other words, your risk of defaulting on any debt repayments. In this country, the number is between 300 and 900. A low score indicates a higher risk of default, while a high score indicates you are a lower risk.

Why is it important?

Financial institutions will use it to decide whether or not you are a credit risk. Those with better scores may also receive preferential interest rates or terms on products such as loans, credit cards and mortgages.

How is it calculated?

The AECB collects information on your payment behaviour from banks as well as utilitiy and telecoms providers.

How can I improve my score?

By paying your bills on time and not missing any repayments, particularly your loan, credit card and mortgage payments. It is also wise to limit the number of credit card and loan applications you make and to reduce your outstanding balances.

How do I know if my score is low or high?

By checking it. Visit one of AECB’s Customer Happiness Centres with an original and valid Emirates ID, passport copy and valid email address. Liv. customers can also access the score directly from the banking app.

How much does it cost?

A credit report costs Dh100 while a report with the score included costs Dh150. Those only wanting the credit score pay Dh60. VAT is payable on top.

ASIAN%20RUGBY%20CHAMPIONSHIP%202024
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MOTHER%20OF%20STRANGERS
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Suad%20Amiry%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Pantheon%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20304%3Cbr%3EAvailable%3A%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Star%20Wars%3A%20Ahsoka%20
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APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)

Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits

Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine

Storage: 128/256/512GB

Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4

Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps

Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID

Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight

In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter

Price: From Dh2,099

Lexus LX700h specs

Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor

Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm

Transmission: 10-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh590,000

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Roll%20of%20Honour%2C%20men%E2%80%99s%20domestic%20rugby%20season
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWest%20Asia%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Bahrain%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Jebel%20Ali%20Dragons%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%201%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Harlequins%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%202%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%20III%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDubai%20Sevens%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
57%20Seconds
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rusty%20Cundieff%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJosh%20Hutcherson%2C%20Morgan%20Freeman%2C%20Greg%20Germann%2C%20Lovie%20Simone%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ICC Awards for 2021

MEN

Cricketer of the Year – Shaheen Afridi (Pakistan)

T20 Cricketer of the Year – Mohammad Rizwan (Pakistan)

ODI Cricketer of the Year – Babar Azam (Pakistan)

Test Cricketer of the Year – Joe Root (England)

WOMEN

Cricketer of the Year – Smriti Mandhana (India)

ODI Cricketer of the Year – Lizelle Lee (South Africa)

T20 Cricketer of the Year – Tammy Beaumont (England)

Simran

Director Hansal Mehta

Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Soham Shah, Esha Tiwari Pandey

Three stars

Porsche Macan T: The Specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo 

Power: 265hp from 5,000-6,500rpm 

Torque: 400Nm from 1,800-4,500rpm 

Transmission: 7-speed dual-clutch auto 

Speed: 0-100kph in 6.2sec 

Top speed: 232kph 

Fuel consumption: 10.7L/100km 

On sale: May or June 

Price: From Dh259,900  

Paatal Lok season two

Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy 

Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong

Rating: 4.5/5

Labour dispute

The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.


- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law 

ENGLAND%20SQUAD
%3Cp%3EFor%20Euro%202024%20qualifers%20away%20to%20Malta%20on%20June%2016%20and%20at%20home%20to%20North%20Macedonia%20on%20June%2019%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EGoalkeepers%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Johnstone%2C%20Pickford%2C%20Ramsdale.%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDefenders%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Alexander-Arnold%2C%20Dunk%2C%20Guehi%2C%20Maguire%2C%20%20Mings%2C%20Shaw%2C%20Stones%2C%20Trippier%2C%20Walker.%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMidfielders%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Bellingham%2C%20Eze%2C%20Gallagher%2C%20Henderson%2C%20%20Maddison%2C%20Phillips%2C%20Rice.%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EForwards%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFoden%2C%20Grealish%2C%20Kane%2C%20Rashford%2C%20Saka%2C%20Wilson.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Bib%20Gourmand%20restaurants
%3Cp%3EAl%20Khayma%0D%3Cbr%3EBait%20Maryam%0D%3Cbr%3EBrasserie%20Boulud%0D%3Cbr%3EFi'lia%0D%3Cbr%3Efolly%0D%3Cbr%3EGoldfish%0D%3Cbr%3EIbn%20AlBahr%0D%3Cbr%3EIndya%20by%20Vineet%0D%3Cbr%3EKinoya%0D%3Cbr%3ENinive%0D%3Cbr%3EOrfali%20Bros%0D%3Cbr%3EReif%20Japanese%20Kushiyaki%0D%3Cbr%3EShabestan%0D%3Cbr%3ETeible%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Retail gloom

Online grocer Ocado revealed retail sales fell 5.7 per cen in its first quarter as customers switched back to pre-pandemic shopping patterns.

It was a tough comparison from a year earlier, when the UK was in lockdown, but on a two-year basis its retail division, a joint venture with Marks&Spencer, rose 31.7 per cent over the quarter.

The group added that a 15 per cent drop in customer basket size offset an 11.6. per cent rise in the number of customer transactions.

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Raha%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Kuwait%2FSaudi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tech%20Logistics%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2414%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Soor%20Capital%2C%20eWTP%20Arabia%20Capital%2C%20Aujan%20Enterprises%2C%20Nox%20Management%2C%20Cedar%20Mundi%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20166%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The bio

Who inspires you?

I am in awe of the remarkable women in the Arab region, both big and small, pushing boundaries and becoming role models for generations. Emily Nasrallah was a writer, journalist, teacher and women’s rights activist

How do you relax?

Yoga relaxes me and helps me relieve tension, especially now when we’re practically chained to laptops and desks. I enjoy learning more about music and the history of famous music bands and genres.

What is favourite book?

The Perks of Being a Wallflower - I think I've read it more than 7 times

What is your favourite Arabic film?

Hala2 Lawen (Translation: Where Do We Go Now?) by Nadine Labaki

What is favourite English film?

Mamma Mia

Best piece of advice to someone looking for a career at Google?

If you’re interested in a career at Google, deep dive into the different career paths and pinpoint the space you want to join. When you know your space, you’re likely to identify the skills you need to develop.  

 

Updated: May 24, 2023, 3:00 AM`