Ukraine has made a major step in denying Russia's warplanes dominance of its airspace by securing western-supplied F-16 combat jets, analysts say.
Fast, highly manoeuvrable and equipped with advance weaponry, the jets will prove a match if not a master of Russia’s fighters.
The proven multi-role combat fighter will not only help secure Ukraine’s skies but will also assist its future ground campaigns by dropping precision bombs.
Ukraine has also hit the “sweet spot” for procuring F-16s, with hundreds of the fourth-generation aircraft available as they are replaced by the next-generation F-35s, aviation analysts say.
If Kyiv is able to secure the variants from after the “Bloc 40” development of 30 years ago, then it will have an aircraft that could allow it to dominate the skies above its cities and soldiers, experts have told The National.
It will be key for the aircraft to have modern equipment including Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM), electronic counter measures and Litening targeting pods to allow it to drop highly accurate 500lb (226kg) JDAMS, (Joint Direct Attack Munitions).
Ukraine and Russia conflict latest - in pictures
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A Ukrainian soldier moves along a trench at a position near the front-line town of Bakhmut. Reuters -
The leader of Russia's Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin, right, talks to his fighters in Bakhmut. AFP -
A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th Separate Mechanised Brigade keeps watch on the front line. EPA -
An evacuee from eastern Ukraine boards a train in Pokrovsk bound for Lviv. Reuters -
Fighters of the Russian Volunteer Corps, which fights on the side of Ukraine, in the north of the country, not far from the Russian border. AFP -
A Ukrainian army multiple rocket launcher fires at Russian positions on the front line near Bakhmut. AP -
Smoke rises after a Russian missile strike in Kyiv. Reuters -
A Ukrainian man plants sunflowers between a damaged Russian tank and its turret in his garden in the village of Velyka Dymerka, Kyiv region. AP -
Ukrainian servicemen rest at their positions after a battle near the front-line city of Bakhmut. Reuters -
A teenager aims a Kalashnikov AK47 rifle during defence training at a centre for school pupils in Lviv. AFP -
A Ukrainian national flag in the middle of a blossoming field near Brovary, east of Kyiv. AP -
Ukrainian servicemen check Russian positions near the front-line city of Bakhmut. Reuters -
Rescuers put out a fire during a Russian air strike on Kyiv. EPA -
Ukrainian boys play at being soldiers in the village of Stoyanka. AFP -
Ukrainian servicemen during an exercise in the Chernihiv region. Reuters -
Ukrainian soldiers fire a cannon on the front line near Bakhmut. AP
The aircraft, with a combat speed of 2,200kph, has been the backbone of Nato air forces for the past 40 years, first taking part in combat in the First Gulf War in 1991, then almost every Nato conflict since.
“Since Operation Desert Storm [in 1991] it’s been a well-proven, extremely capable and extremely robust aircraft,” said Gareth Jennings, aviation editor of Janes, the defence intelligence firm. “That’s why countries are still buying F-16s by the bucket-load.”
They will also arrive just in time to replace Ukraine’s dwindling fleet of about 70 combat aircraft, including Mig-29s.
Good timing
Fortunately for Ukraine, there are at least 200 F-16s that have had the mid-life upgrade that are surplus to requirements by the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium and to a lesser extent Poland.
“They're readily available in numbers that make a meaningful difference,” said Mr Jenkins. “So it's actually a sweet spot for Ukraine at the moment, especially as these are very capable combat aircraft, relatively cheap to operate and, with their single engine, not that complex to maintain.”
With more than 2,000 F-16s currently flying, Ukraine will not be short of the spares required for servicing jets that will suffer heavy engine fatigue and battle damage.
Without F-16s, it is also increasingly likely that Russia will establish air dominance that would allow its jets to either attack key targets inside Ukraine or more importantly to hinder any counteroffensive breakthrough.
That may yet still be possible as it will take at least three or four months to give advance training courses to Ukraine’s experienced fighter pilots and maintenance crews.
Russian bogeys
Since the war began, the “bogey” of the Ukrainian air force has been the Russian Su-35s along with the MiG-31 long range interceptors, that have on one occasion managed to shoot down a jet with a missile launched from 170km away.
“The Russian Aerospace Forces remain a ‘force in being’ and a major threat to advancing Ukrainian forces, although they currently lack the capabilities to penetrate Ukrainian air defences,” wrote Dr Jack Watling in a recent paper for the Rusi think tank.
To combat this, the F-16s will need the AIM-120D AMRAAM that can reach targets up to 160km distance which experts say is a “quantum leap” ahead of what Ukraine’s current MiG-29s possess.
Up close the Lockheed Martin-built jet is also an excellent dog-fighter as it was originally designed primarily as an air-to-air combat aircraft
Numbers game
To make a genuine difference, analysts believe Ukraine will need more than 50 and perhaps as many as 150 jets to defend its skies.
“They need mass as well as capability,” said Mr Jenkins. “Around 50 wouldn't necessarily guarantee Ukrainians air dominance but it would contribute to denying the Russians air superiority, which is just as important.”
Tim Ripley, a military analyst, said about 150 F-16s “would put them very much back in the game”, giving Kyiv “a good chance to get back air control”.
Deep strike
Being a multi-role aircraft, the F-16 can take off with a mix of air-to-air missiles and ground attack weapons allowing it to fight its way to the target, deliver its payload then fight its way back out again.
While Nato restraints mean it cannot attack Russia, the jet will be able to penetrate and strike annexed Crimea, which hosts airbases as well as a major naval port.
It will likely be equipped with the JDAM bombs that, as proven in Iraq and Afghanistan, can hit targets with pinpoint accuracy, destroying armour or concrete bunkers.
Its ALARM anti-radiation missiles will also hinder Russia’s extensive and effective electronic warfare capabilities.
Challenges
Unlike most Russian aircraft, the F-16 cannot operate well from austere locations or runways with “foreign object debris”.
They generally require a pristine, long runway, although in Singapore F-16s train to land and take-off from dedicated motorways.
“Nato hasn’t done austere air operations for 30-odd years so this will be a challenge,” said Mr Ripley. “But you have to bear in mind that the Ukrainians have lots of experience with flying jets and maintaining them in tough conditions and they also have a more rough-and-ready attitude to health and safety restraints.”
Drones and weapons supplied to Ukraine - in pictures
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Turkeysold its Bayraktar TB2 armed drones to Ukraine. They can fly at an altitude of 7,500 metres and swoop down to attack targets. AFP -
The US also gave 700 of its Switchblade kamikaze drones. AP -
Cheap commercial drones like the DJI Mavic series have been modified in Ukraine. AFP -
Germany will follow the US in providing a Patriot missile defence system, pictured above, to Ukraine. Reuters -
FIM-92 Stinger rockets have been donated to help Ukrainian infantry engage aircraft and drones. The shoulder-launched missiles can shoot down aircraft. Photo: US Army -
Germany donated 25 Flakpanzer Gepard all-weather-capable self-propelled anti-aircraft gun. AFP -
The High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or Himars, can simultaneously launch several precision-guided missiles. The US has given Ukraine projectiles with a range of about 130 kilometres. EPA -
M777 howitzers and about 300,000 shells have been donated to give Ukraine an accurate artillery platform with a range of 50 kilometres. EPA -
Ukraine has been sent at least 5,000 of the anti-tank weapons known as NLAWs. These shoulder-launched rockets have proved deadly in the field. PA -
Ukrainian troops have also received thousands of Javelin anti-tank missiles. Bloomberg -
Poland and the Czech Republic sent Russian-made T72 tanks, which Ukraine has used for decades, to ease integration and cut down training time. EPA -
France as announced its plan to give AMX-10 RC “scout tanks” to Ukraine. "This is the first time that western-made armoured vehicles are being delivered in support of the Ukrainian army," a French official said. AFP -
Shortly after the French, the US said it would send Bradley fighting vehicles to provide "a level of firepower and armour that would bring advantages on the battlefield”. Reuters -
The UK sent their phased-out Saxon armoured vehicles. They found new life protecting infantry units in transit and dealing with tough off-road conditions. Getty Images -
Denmark has supplied Harpoon anti-ship launchers to help Ukraine defend its coasts. AFP -
The US sent 20 Soviet and Russian made Mi-17 helicopters to Ukraine that had initially been bought for the Afghan government in 2010. AP -
Germany has also supplied its latest version of the IRIS-T air defence system designed to shoot down missiles at altitudes up to 20 kilometres. Getty Images -
Ukraine has also been given thousands of small arms, bullet proof vests, medical kits, litres of fuel, granades and other weapons systems. Reuters
With a maximum combat radius of 550km, the jets have a relatively short range and unlike Nato’s air fleets the Ukrainians do not have air-to-air refuelling capabilities to stay airborne for hours on end.
The airfields used for F-16s will also have to be some distance from the front line and, as a target for Russian strikes, will need heavy air defences.
“It's not a long-range combat aircraft but for point defence the F-16 has the ability to take-off quickly, get up to altitude fast, engage the opponent, get down, rearm, refuel and get up again,” said Mr Jennings. “It’s ideally suited for Ukraine.”
The jet also sends President Vladimir Putin a strong message about the West’s long-term commitment to Ukraine.
