La Soufriere volcano on the eastern Caribbean island of St Vincent erupted on Friday after decades of inactivity, sending dark plumes of ash and smoke billowing into the sky and forcing thousands from surrounding villages to evacuate.
Dormant since 1979, the volcano started showing signs of activity in December, spewing steam and smoke and rumbling away. That picked up this week, prompting Prime Minister of St Vincent and the Grenadines Ralph Gonsalves to order an evacuation of the surrounding area late on Thursday.
Early on Friday, it erupted. Ash and smoke plunged the neighbouring area into near total darkness, blotting out the bright morning sun, said a Reuters witness, who reported hearing the explosion from Rose Hall, a nearby village.
Smaller explosions continued throughout the day, Erouscilla Joseph, director at the University of the West Indies Seismic Research Centre, told Reuters. She said that this kind of activity could go on for weeks if not months.
"This is just the beginning," she said.
St Vincent and the Grenadines, which has a population of just over 100,000, has not experienced volcanic activity since 1979, when an eruption caused approximately $100 million in damages.
An eruption by La Soufriere in 1902 killed more than 1,000 people. The volcano's name means "sulphur outlet" in French.
The eruption column was estimated to reach 10 kilometres high, the seismic research centre said. Ash fall could affect the Grenadines, Barbados, St Lucia and Grenada.
"The ash plume may cause flight delays due to diversions," the centre said on Twitter. "On the ground, ash can cause discomfort in persons suffering with respiratory illnesses and will impact water resources."
Local media have in recent days also reported increased activity from Mount Pelée on the island of Martinique, which lies to the north of St Vincent beyond St Lucia.
Some 4,500 residents near the volcano had left already via ships and by road, Mr Gonsalves said at a news conference on Friday. Heavy ash fall had halted evacuation efforts somewhat due to poor visibility, according to St Vincent's National Emergency Management Organisation.
"The place in general is in a frenzy," said Lavern King, 28, a shelter volunteer. "People are still being evacuated from the red zone. It started yesterday evening and into last night."
Mr Gonsalves said that depending on the extent of the damage, it could be four months before evacuees could return home.
Welling up with tears, he said neighbouring islands such as Dominica, Grenada and Antigua had agreed to take evacuees in and cruise lines could ferry them over – as long as they were vaccinated first.
That though could prove a challenge, said opposition senator Shevern John.
"People are very scared of the vaccine and they opt out of coming to a shelter because eventually they would have to adhere to the protocol," she said. Shelters are also having to limit the number of evacuees they take in due to Covid-19 protocols.
Vincentians would have to wait for further scientific analysis to know what steps to take next, she said.
"It can go for a few days or a few weeks," she said. "At the moment, both ends of the island are covered in ash and very dark."
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
