Brazil's far-right presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro, who is in intensive care after being stabbed at a campaign rally, maintained his first-round lead in the latest election poll on Friday, but a leftist rival from the Workers Party (PT) made solid gains.
In the Datafolha poll published by the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper, Mr Bolsonaro had 26 per cent, up two percentage points from the same poll published earlier this week - although this is within the survey’s margin of error.
Former Sao Paulo Mayor Fernando Haddad, who took over as the PT's presidential candidate, jumped to 13 per cent, up 4 points.
Center-left Ciro Gomes stayed even with 13 per cent.
The September 6 knife attack against Mr Bolsonaro further complicated Brazil's most unpredictable election in three decades, with its most popular politician, jailed former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva who founded the PT, banned from running in the October 7 vote due to a corruption conviction.
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Mr Bolsonaro’s son, Flavio, told a Rio de Janeiro radio station this week that his father is in no shape for campaigning before the first-round vote, and that he will need more surgery in two months to reconstruct his intestine.
Brazilian assets have dropped and the currency has hovered near a record low in recent days on concerns that the winner of October’s contest would baulk at implementing crucial belt-tightening measures.
Investors are paying increasing attention to poll scenarios for a runoff, which will happen if no candidate obtains a majority of valid votes in the first round. The Datafolha poll showed Mr Bolsonaro would trail Mr Gomes, Mr Silva and Mr Alckmin in any second round, while Mr Haddad and Mr Bolsonaro would be in a technical tie, with the Workers’ Party candidate on 40 per cent and the former paratrooper on 41 per cent.
Bolsonaro’s rejection rating rose to 44 per cent from 43 per cent, the highest among all candidates, while Haddad’s also increased to 26 per cent from 22 per cent.
Mr Haddad is Lula's hand-picked successor to stand for the PT.
Datafolha interviewed 2,820 people across Brazil on Thursday and Friday for the survey, which has a 2 percentage point margin of error.
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
