Rebels and Syrian regime at a stalemate in Aleppo

Despite enthusiasm sparked by rebels breaking the regime siege and promises of an offensive to liberate western Aleppo from government forces, the conflict in the city seems set to drag on rather than end.

A man rebuilds a wall of a damaged building in the rebel-held Al Katerji district of Aleppo city in Syria on August 13, 2016. Abdalrhman Ismail / Reuters

BEIRUT // Not long after rebel forces punched through Syrian government lines in south-western Aleppo, ending a three-week siege, the coalition leading the push announced a new campaign to retake the rest of the city.

The opening of a supply route on August 6 into the east of Aleppo and promises of future action has left rebel forces and their supporters euphoric in a way rarely seen since the war started.

Rebels in Aleppo in particular have until now had little to celebrate, with the a city locked in a bloody stalemate for years before the government siege made an opposition defeat increasingly likely.

But despite the enthusiasm over the breaking of the siege and promises of an offensive to liberate western Aleppo from government forces, the conflict in the city seems set to drag on rather than end.

What the rebels were able to do was quite impressive: They quickly broke a siege that the government and its allies had been carefully preparing for most of this year and saved eastern Aleppo from starvation.

However, the significance of their gains is also prone to exaggeration. Right now, rebel forces have opened a narrow gap in government lines in the south-west of the city. Narrow passages like this are susceptible to attack, shelling, aerial bombardment and potential recapture. Even if the route is open, it does not necessarily guarantee the free movement of food, aid, weapons and reinforcements.

The breaking of the siege appears to have come as a shock to regime forces, who were confidently poised to retake eastern Aleppo. Now, government forces are recalculating, sending reinforcements to the city. Larger numbers of Hizbollah fighters – and reportedly even members of Iraqi Shiite militias – are being deployed to Aleppo.

Militarily, the Syrian government retains the upper hand in the fight against the rebels. With its own air force and the backing of Russian war planes, they have powerful capabilities that the rebels cannot counter. They can also move troops around the country more easily, call upon legions of foreign fighters and quickly and easily receive resupplies of weapons and ammunition. Defeating the government in the city that was Syria’s largest before the war is a much bigger challenge than breaking through the siege.

Yet despite the government holding these military advantages for years, the front line in central Aleppo has remained static for much of the war. Crowded city blocks make for difficult terrain in which to capture territory. This has resulted in rebel and government forces focusing more on cutting supply routes rather than launching direct military assaults along the east-west divide in Aleppo. If rebel forces do attempt a frontal attack on western Aleppo, they are likely to get bogged down.

For now, both regime and rebel forces seem committed to continuing the strategy of cutting off supply routes. In breaking the siege, rebel forces also cut off the primary government supply route in south-west Aleppo. And despite opening a corridor to rebel forces, the rebels are still without their primary supply route in the city’s north-west, which was captured by government forces last month when the siege was implemented. The resulting situation is one where both sides are partly under siege. In addition, the recent fighting has knocked Aleppo’s water supply offline, leaving two million people without running water according to the United Nations. There are increased warnings of outbreaks of waterborne diseases as residents may turn to unsafe water sources in the summer heat.

Any push for western Aleppo might also come at a time when rebels are forced to have a reckoning over their future.

While rebel forces have been eager to project an image of unity after the breaking of the siege, this may not last. The battle to re-enter Aleppo was carried out by Jaish Al Fatah, a coalition of Islamist rebel units dominated by Jabhat Fatah Al Sham – the group that was Al Qaeda’s Syria affiliate Jabhat Al Nusra until late last month. Their vision for Syria is starkly at odds with that of more moderate rebel factions in and around the city, some of which have long voiced their disapproval of Al Nusra and groups that work with them.

As Al Nusra’s dominance becomes more pronounced, these groups will have to wrestle with what their role is and whether they are willing to work alongside ideological enemies in an effort to take down the Syrian government.