‘There is no future’: scores of Lebanese flee economic crisis


Sunniva Rose
  • English
  • Arabic

At dawn at Beirut airport, Wafic Saab said a quick farewell to his wife and two young boys before they rushed through the gate, hurrying to catch their plane to Canada.

Mr Saab never thought the day would come when his Lebanese-Canadian wife would leave their country with little prospect of return.

“Life has become very hard here,” said Mr Saab, as he stood alone in the near-empty departure hall. "I honestly do not know what awaits us.

“I will do my best for them to return but if you asked me whether I’m optimistic about it, I would say no. On the contrary, I’m very pessimistic.”

His wife, Lama Moubarak Saab, told The National as she pushed her trolley overflowing with luggage: "We don't know if a war is coming with Israel, or a civil war might break out.

"I have no idea. So I think it’s safer for me to just go back home to Canada."

The Lebanese are reeling from their country’s worst economic crisis in recent history.

Hundreds of thousands have lost their jobs, the local currency has tanked and inflation is rising rapidly.

The government has hit a brick wall in its negotiations for a bail-out with the International Monetary Fund.

As politicians bicker over the size of the banking sector’s losses, prospects of recovery remain dim.

Many say that the current crisis, which predates the coronavirus pandemic, is worse than past wars.

“It’s just not working,” said Dominique, another Lebanese-Canadian who decided to leave Lebanon with his wife and two teenage sons.

Dominique fled to Canada in 1989, during some of the civil war’s fiercest clashes, before returning to Lebanon 16 years later.

“The situation now is really bad,” he said. “We’re going back to our second home with the children.”

With the reopening of Beirut airport on July 1 after more than three months of closure over coronavirus concerns, a massive brain drain is occurring.

Emigration is not a new phenomenon in Lebanon, which relies heavily on remittances sent from its large number of citizens working abroad.

But lawyers and researchers have noticed a sharp rise in requests for information.

"We get almost two requests a week," lawyer Fouad Debs told The National. "Until four months ago, we only received two a year."

His firm, Debs and Associates, does not specialise in emigration but is on a list of suggested lawyers on the website of the US embassy in Beirut.

“The brain drain is happening and is going to increase because I don’t see the situation getting better any time soon," Mr Debs said.

"People are getting really desperate. The only way out is to leave."

Emigration might be easier for dual nationals but many others are also trying their luck.

“This is the first time that I leave Lebanon,” said a Lebanese nurse, 26, as he walked towards the departure gate at Beirut airport.

“I’m going to start [afresh] in Turkey with my wife. It’s safer.”

He said the main factor pushing him to leave was that his monthly salary in Lebanon was now worth “$100 to $200".

The national currency has lost almost 80 per cent on the black market since banks started limiting cash withdrawals last November.

Finding US dollars, which used to be used alongside Lebanese pounds, has become nearly impossible.

“This crisis was the signal for me to anchor my children in Europe instead of Beirut,” said Hala, a charity worker with French residency who was flying out of Beirut that morning with her daughter, 16.

“I am afraid of insecurity and that schools won’t open like before. I don’t mind living that but I don’t know why my children should."

Private universities and schools are becoming unaffordable for many Lebanese families since they started adjusting their rates to the black market.

“Long-term emigration is becoming a better option than studying here,” political researcher Nizar Hassan said.

“If you get a degree here, you don’t have a competitive advantage in the job market and you probably won’t find work.”

Famines and security crises have pushed the Lebanese to emigrate since the 19th century.

The country now has a diaspora that is nearly three times larger than the number of inhabitants.

But emigration also persisted in times of peace because the structure of the Lebanese economy does not produce enough jobs for its graduates, Mr Hassan said.

This only accelerated with the latest economic collapse.

“It’s a very concerning social phenomenon,” Mr Hassan said.

Leaving Lebanon is not an easy choice, said Mr Saab, a hairstylist.

He will probably soon shut down his three branches of hair salons in Lebanon and move to Dubai, where one remains open, and then consider his options of reunion with his family.

“I’d rather not go to Canada because it’s far," Mr Saab said. "My family is here, my mum, and my brothers. It’s hard to move in these circumstances."

His wife, who moved to Lebanon after their marriage 12 years ago, was reluctant to leave.

“But I asked her one question: 'What’s the most important thing in your life? Is it your children? Then go. Here, there is no future',” Mr Saab said.

Know before you go
  • Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
  • If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
  • By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
  • Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
  • Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.

 

Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
  1. Join parent networks
  2. Look beyond school fees
  3. Keep an open mind
Timeline

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May 2017

The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts

September 2021

Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act

October 2021

Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence 

December 2024

Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group

May 2025

The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan

July 2025

The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan

August 2025

Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision

October 2025

Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange

November 2025

180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE

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Expo 2020 Dubai will be the first World Expo to be held in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia

The world fair will run for six months from October 20, 2020 to April 10, 2021.

It is expected to attract 25 million visits

Some 70 per cent visitors are projected to come from outside the UAE, the largest proportion of international visitors in the 167-year history of World Expos.

More than 30,000 volunteers are required for Expo 2020

The site covers a total of 4.38 sqkm, including a 2 sqkm gated area

It is located adjacent to Al Maktoum International Airport in Dubai South

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Director: Edgar Wright

Starring: Ansel Elgort, Kevin Spacey, Jamie Foxx, Lily James

Three and a half stars

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The flights
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The rooms
Rooms at Fairmont Mount Kenya range from Dh1,870 per night for a deluxe room to Dh11,000 per night for the William Holden Cottage.

What is 'Soft Power'?

Soft power was first mentioned in 1990 by former US Defence Secretary Joseph Nye. 
He believed that there were alternative ways of cultivating support from other countries, instead of achieving goals using military strength. 
Soft power is, at its root, the ability to convince other states to do what you want without force. 
This is traditionally achieved by proving that you share morals and values.

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The rules on fostering in the UAE

A foster couple or family must:

  • be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
  • not be younger than 25 years old
  • not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
  • be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
  • have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
  • undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
  • A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
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Name: Yousef Al Bahar

Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994

Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers

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Our legal consultant

Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers

Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.

It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.

The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.

Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.

Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.

He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.

AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”

A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.

Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.

Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.

Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.

By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.

Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.

In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”

Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.

She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.

Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Motori Profile

Date started: March 2020

Co-founder/CEO: Ahmed Eissa

Based: UAE, Abu Dhabi

Sector: Insurance Sector

Size: 50 full-time employees (Inside and Outside UAE)

Stage: Seed stage and seeking Series A round of financing 

Investors: Safe City Group

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Range: 400km

Power: 134bhp

Torque: 175Nm

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The biog

Favourite films: Casablanca and Lawrence of Arabia

Favourite books: Start with Why by Simon Sinek and Good to be Great by Jim Collins

Favourite dish: Grilled fish

Inspiration: Sheikh Zayed's visionary leadership taught me to embrace new challenges.

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