Iran can buy time to secretly reconfigure its damaged atomic programme by agreeing to a deal that allows the US to rejoin the 2015 nuclear accord between Tehran and world powers, an expert says.
Sima Shine, the Iran programme leader at the Institute of National Security Studies, said the deal expires in 2030, so its resumption would benefit Tehran's position in the longer run.
"This specific agreement in six, eight years will be finished," she said. "Why should Iran now diverge from the agreement?
"What will happen in 2030? Iran will have the legitimacy to enrich with any number of centrifuges, with any type of centrifuge, to any quantity of enriched uranium.
"If they go back they will continue with the agreement until its last days and at the same time they will prepare everything they need in secret places in order to be in a position where they can openly, and in a very short time, break out into a nuclear military capability."
Ms Shine said the Natanz plant appeared to have suffered significant damage in a recent attack.
Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei set a target of 190,000 functioning centrifuges, so Iran will probably return to the agreement as it secretly regroups.
"What was operated in Natanz was a little bit more than 5,000 centrifuges," Ms Shine said.
"I don't know if all of them were destroyed but I would say probably between 40 to 50 per cent.
"It's damaging, it takes the programme back. But if Iran goes back to the agreement, it's less of an issue.
"They have more time to replace everything but it has a huge psychological effect on Iran, on the security established and the leadership."
Iran had announced it was producing uranium at 60 per cent purity, the threshold level for a dash to making a nuclear bomb.
"If Iran has a lot of fissile material enriched to 60 per cent, it's a question of days," Ms Shine said.
The US quit the nuclear deal, in which Iran was to curb its nuclear ambitions in exchange for the lifting of strict, in 2018.
Former president Donald Trump then implemented a policy of maximum pressure through sanctions to contain the regime.
But since Joe Biden became US President in January, Washington's diplomats have returned to indirect talks with Iran to rejoin the deal and lift at least some of the sanctions.
Those talks were intensifying on Tuesday in Vienna and are most likely to be influenced by the expiry of a three-month inspections arrangement between Tehran and the International Atomic Energy Agency on May 20, and Iran's presidential elections in June.
A deal in President Hassan Rouhani's last days would make him a handy scapegoat if the agreement were to sour later.
"I think the leader would prefer to put it on Rouhani ... it would be better to be blamed on someone who is gone," Ms Shine said.
She said the threat Iran poses to the region at the moment – despite endless challenges – would be much worse if it had the ability to produce a bomb.
"Iran is doing everything it is doing today in the Middle East without a nuclear capability, without a strong economy, with demonstrations of people all over the country that dislike the regime," Ms Shine said.
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
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Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
If you go
Flight connections to Ulaanbaatar are available through a variety of hubs, including Seoul and Beijing, with airlines including Mongolian Airlines and Korean Air. While some nationalities, such as Americans, don’t need a tourist visa for Mongolia, others, including UAE citizens, can obtain a visa on arrival, while others including UK citizens, need to obtain a visa in advance. Contact the Mongolian Embassy in the UAE for more information.
Nomadic Road offers expedition-style trips to Mongolia in January and August, and other destinations during most other months. Its nine-day August 2020 Mongolia trip will cost from $5,250 per person based on two sharing, including airport transfers, two nights’ hotel accommodation in Ulaanbaatar, vehicle rental, fuel, third party vehicle liability insurance, the services of a guide and support team, accommodation, food and entrance fees; nomadicroad.com
A fully guided three-day, two-night itinerary at Three Camel Lodge costs from $2,420 per person based on two sharing, including airport transfers, accommodation, meals and excursions including the Yol Valley and Flaming Cliffs. A return internal flight from Ulaanbaatar to Dalanzadgad costs $300 per person and the flight takes 90 minutes each way; threecamellodge.com
'The Lost Daughter'
Director: Maggie Gyllenhaal
Starring: Olivia Colman, Jessie Buckley, Dakota Johnson
Rating: 4/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
hall of shame
SUNDERLAND 2002-03
No one has ended a Premier League season quite like Sunderland. They lost each of their final 15 games, taking no points after January. They ended up with 19 in total, sacking managers Peter Reid and Howard Wilkinson and losing 3-1 to Charlton when they scored three own goals in eight minutes.
SUNDERLAND 2005-06
Until Derby came along, Sunderland’s total of 15 points was the Premier League’s record low. They made it until May and their final home game before winning at the Stadium of Light while they lost a joint record 29 of their 38 league games.
HUDDERSFIELD 2018-19
Joined Derby as the only team to be relegated in March. No striker scored until January, while only two players got more assists than goalkeeper Jonas Lossl. The mid-season appointment Jan Siewert was to end his time as Huddersfield manager with a 5.3 per cent win rate.
ASTON VILLA 2015-16
Perhaps the most inexplicably bad season, considering they signed Idrissa Gueye and Adama Traore and still only got 17 points. Villa won their first league game, but none of the next 19. They ended an abominable campaign by taking one point from the last 39 available.
FULHAM 2018-19
Terrible in different ways. Fulham’s total of 26 points is not among the lowest ever but they contrived to get relegated after spending over £100 million (Dh457m) in the transfer market. Much of it went on defenders but they only kept two clean sheets in their first 33 games.
LA LIGA: Sporting Gijon, 13 points in 1997-98.
BUNDESLIGA: Tasmania Berlin, 10 points in 1965-66
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How to register as a donor
1) Organ donors can register on the Hayat app, run by the Ministry of Health and Prevention
2) There are about 11,000 patients in the country in need of organ transplants
3) People must be over 21. Emiratis and residents can register.
4) The campaign uses the hashtag #donate_hope
