Classified British defence documents have been discovered “in a soggy heap” by a member of the public at a bus stop in England.
The Ministry of Defence documents include discussions on a possible British military presence in Afghanistan after the US and Nato withdraws troops later this year.
They also address the passage of Royal Navy warship HMS Defender through Ukrainian waters off the Crimea coast last week and likely Russian reactions.
The sensitive papers were discovered in the south-eastern county of Kent and handed to the BBC, which reported the finding on Sunday.
It said most of the nearly 50 pages of documents were stamped "official sensitive" and included emails and PowerPoint presentations.
At least one page was labelled “secret UK Eyes Only” and addressed to Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, outlining sensitive recommendations for the UK military’s presence in Afghanistan.
It concerned a US request for British assistance in the country and whether any British special forces will remain once the American withdrawal is complete.
The documents issued a warning regarding the deteriorating situation in the country and the risk of further destabilisation and violence.
"Any UK footprint in Afghanistan that persists … is assessed to be vulnerable to targeting by a complex network of actors," the report says, noting that "the option to withdraw completely remains".
The reduced presence of Nato forces "is already impairing the situational awareness that we [and the US] used to enjoy across the country", it says.
The BBC said it would not publish details which would put military personnel at risk in Afghanistan.
The ministry said it was investigating the recovery of the documents, which it said had been reported missing by one of its employees.
“The Ministry of Defence was informed last week of an incident in which sensitive defence papers were recovered by a member of the public,” it said.
“The department takes the security of information extremely seriously and an investigation has been launched.”
The person who found the documents gave them to the BBC once they realised their sensitive nature, but asked to remain anonymous.
Black Sea preparations
The papers on HMS Defender showed officials preparing for Russia's reaction when the warship sailed close to Crimea in the Black Sea.
Russia considers the waters off Crimea as its own, but its annexation of the peninsula in 2014 was not recognised by most of the international community which regards it as Ukraine’s territory.
HMS Defender sailed through the waters on Wednesday, leading to a diplomatic spat after Russia claimed it had fired warning shots and dropped bombs in the path of the warship to force it away.
Britain rejected Moscow’s account of the incident and said any warning shots were part of a routine gunnery exercise by the Russians.
It said it did not recognise the claim of bombs being dropped.
The lost documents showed defence officials speculating that interaction with the Russian military would become “more frequent and assertive”.
They showed that Britain took a calculated risk by deploying the warship in order to demonstrate support for the government of Ukraine, the BBC said.
The UK ministry said the ship “conducted innocent passage through Ukrainian territorial waters in accordance with international law”.
“As the public would expect, the Ministry of Defence plans carefully,” it said, referring to the documents.
Relations between Russia and the West are at their lowest point since the end of the Cold War after clashes on Crimea and other issues.
Russia warned Britain and the US on Friday against “tempting fate” by deploying military vessels to the area.
“We call on the Pentagon and the British Navy, which are sending their warships into the Black Sea, not to tempt fate in vain,” said Maj Gen Igor Konashenkov, chief spokesman for Russia's Ministry of Defence.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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