Parts of Fujairah were flooded after heavy rain last summer and climate experts say more flooding in the Gulf is likely. Reuters
Parts of Fujairah were flooded after heavy rain last summer and climate experts say more flooding in the Gulf is likely. Reuters
Parts of Fujairah were flooded after heavy rain last summer and climate experts say more flooding in the Gulf is likely. Reuters
Parts of Fujairah were flooded after heavy rain last summer and climate experts say more flooding in the Gulf is likely. Reuters

Middle East 'faces lower rainfall but more floods' due to climate change


Daniel Bardsley
  • English
  • Arabic

The Middle East is likely to experience less rainfall but an increase in the number of extreme downpours because of climate change, experts have said.

Flooding is likely to increase, said Karim Elgendy, an associate fellow in the climate and environment programme at Chatham House in London, as part of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) briefing.

While climate change will, on average, increase rainfall globally, Mr Elgendy said the Middle East would be an exception.

“We’re going to get longer droughts and when it does rain, it’s going to rain in a flooding manner,” he said.

“Then you have sea-level rises,” he added. “In the Nile Delta, we’re going to expect a dramatic impact, especially in the Nile, which is below sea level.”

There will be “secondary impacts” on agriculture, tourism and development, with “tertiary impacts” on social structures, migration and resource demand, although Mr Elgendy said forecasting these was difficult.

Middle East second-most affected region by rising temperatures

Mr Elgendy was speaking at a Mena region briefing before Monday's release of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report, which summarises the current situation regarding climate change.

Released following final discussions between experts in Switzerland, the report indicates that the world is falling far short of its climate change targets if global temperature rises are not to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

This has happened ahead of Cop28, the IPCC climate-change gathering to be held in the UAE later this year — the second successive Cop in the Mena region, with Cop27 having taken place in Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt last year.

Mr Elgendy indicated that this focus on the region was appropriate, as the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East would experience the largest increases in temperature as a result of climate change of any inhabited region, with only the Arctic, which despite its vast size is inhabited by only 4 million people, facing faster rises.

Cop28 will involve three key elements, according to Mr Elgendy, including a global stocktake of progress since the Paris Agreement on climate change drafted in 2015.

Also expected, he said, was a global agreement on adaptation, or how countries will respond to climate change, and the finalisation of a deal on loss and damage, in which poorer countries severely affected by climate change will be given financial support to cope with its consequences.

“All these things mean Cop28 is where most pending issues will get resolved,” he said. “It means we have fewer things to negotiate.”

'A Cop for action'

Mr Elgendy, who founded Carboun, an initiative that promotes sustainability in Middle Eastern cities, said Cop28 could mark a transition in the nature of climate conferences if the focus is more on assessing and promoting action to combat climate change, instead of forging agreements on what needs to be done.

The Middle East is heating at the second-fastest rate in the world, behind the Arctic. AFP
The Middle East is heating at the second-fastest rate in the world, behind the Arctic. AFP

“Cop 28 could be a Cop for action,” he said. “It could start a transition in what the Cop is [about] … it’s something that’s largely about encouraging climate action.”

However, he said the world is set to overshoot the target of limiting global temperature rises to 1.5°C, so greater ambition is needed.

“If we hit all the voluntary targets by 2050, maybe we’ll get to 2°C but we’re certainly off target for 1.5°C,” he said.

“The process … isn’t going fast enough and time is running out. Emissions grew by 1 per cent last year and it was nothing to do with Covid recovery.”

He said the UAE’s climate policy appeared “unorthodox” but that it had largely been followed by the rest of the GCC.

The country, he said, is keen to diversify its economy away from oil and gas, funded by revenue from the petroleum sector.

Visitors at the Road to Cop28 launch event held at Jubilee Park, Expo City Dubai. Pawan Singh / The National
Visitors at the Road to Cop28 launch event held at Jubilee Park, Expo City Dubai. Pawan Singh / The National

Investment in renewable and nuclear energy, Mr Elgendy said, had allowed the country to reduce its own petroleum consumption.

This, in turn, means that exports can be maximised — justified not only in the UAE but in the GCC as a whole — on the basis that oil and gas extraction is less carbon-intensive in the Gulf than in many other parts of the world, he said.

“The UAE and Saudi position is … we should be the last producers standing, because the oil … requires less energy to get it out of the ground,” he said.

Another speaker, Camille Ammoun, an associate fellow at the American University of Beirut, said GCC countries had an economic interest to engage in efforts to mitigate climate change, as well as the financial means to drive green projects. They also have an interest in doing so because of the environmental effects of climate change.

“The Gulf countries have the interest and means to go further,” he said, although these nations are “still very reliant on fossil-fuel extraction.”

FIXTURES

New Zealand v France, second Test
Saturday, 12.35pm (UAE)
Auckland, New Zealand

South Africa v Wales
Sunday, 12.40am (UAE), San Juan, Argentina

THREE
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ELIO

Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett

Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina

Rating: 4/5

Poacher
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Dust and sand storms compared

Sand storm

  • Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
  • Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
  • Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
  • Travel distance: Limited 
  • Source: Open desert areas with strong winds

Dust storm

  • Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
  • Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
  • Duration: Can linger for days
  • Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
  • Source: Can be carried from distant regions
RedCrow Intelligence Company Profile

Started: 2016

Founders: Hussein Nasser Eddin, Laila Akel, Tayeb Akel 

Based: Ramallah, Palestine

Sector: Technology, Security

# of staff: 13

Investment: $745,000

Investors: Palestine’s Ibtikar Fund, Abu Dhabi’s Gothams and angel investors

Nepotism is the name of the game

Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad. 

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iPhone XS
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It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus.
Price: Dh4,649

iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel.
Price: Dh3,179

Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.

The biog

Family: Parents and four sisters

Education: Bachelor’s degree in business management and marketing at American University of Sharjah

A self-confessed foodie, she enjoys trying out new cuisines, her current favourite is the poke superfood bowls

Likes reading: autobiographies and fiction

Favourite holiday destination: Italy

Posts information about challenges, events, runs in other emirates on the group's Instagram account @Anagowrunning

Has created a database of Emirati and GCC sportspeople on Instagram @abeermk, highlight: Athletes

Apart from training, also talks to women about nutrition, healthy lifestyle, diabetes, cholesterol, blood pressure

'Cheb%20Khaled'
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While you're here
Analysis

Maros Sefcovic is juggling multiple international trade agreement files, but his message was clear when he spoke to The National on Wednesday.

The EU-UAE bilateral trade deal will be finalised soon, he said. It is in everyone’s interests to do so. Both sides want to move quickly and are in alignment. He said the UAE is a very important partner for the EU. It’s full speed ahead - and with some lofty ambitions - on the road to a free trade agreement. 

We also talked about US-EU tariffs. He answered that both sides need to talk more and more often, but he is prepared to defend Europe's position and said diplomacy should be a guiding principle through the current moment. 

 

The five pillars of Islam
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The Sand Castle

Director: Matty Brown

Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea

Rating: 2.5/5

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Sheer grandeur

The Owo building is 14 storeys high, seven of which are below ground, with the 30,000 square feet of amenities located subterranean, including a 16-seat private cinema, seven lounges, a gym, games room, treatment suites and bicycle storage.

A clear distinction between the residences and the Raffles hotel with the amenities operated separately.

UAE v Gibraltar

What: International friendly

When: 7pm kick off

Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City

Admission: Free

Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page

UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)

Updated: March 21, 2023, 7:42 AM`