Tim Fox

The main feature of the Trump fiscal plan is for a stimulus worth between US$5 trillion and $8tn over 10 years, broken down between tax cuts of $4-$6tn and spending increases of $1tn.

While doubts about what the Trump presidency will really look like still remain, the transition is going relatively well with key appointments being seen as positive for growth.

It is the uncertainty of a change in policy under a Trump presidency that is triggering some of the traditional signs of investor risk aversion.

The country has to be careful about encouraging growth while not depending on investment fuelled by fiscal spending and credit growth.

Professors Charles Goodhart and Geoffry Wood argue that quantitative easing simply recycles money between the central banks and financial institutions in a sort of 'monetary roundabout'.

The Bank of Japan's monetary policy easing has been one of the constants of the world economy over the past two decades, and this latest round of changes is more of the same. But there has been little observable benefit from it.

There is something a little strange about the US Federal Reserve recently beginning to talk up a rate rise so far ahead of when it is actually planning to do it.

It is still likely that UK growth will take a short term hit and it will take time for the full impact of Brexit to manifest itself.

The way the referendum has been portrayed is akin to the Lehman event of 2008, whereas the reality is likely to be much less severe, for the UK and for the rest of the world.

The falling yield story is not just about Brexit, as yields have been declining now more or less consistently over the course of the past few years.

Already in the first few days of June there has been an Opec meeting, a European Central Bank council meeting, and of course, the pivotal US employment report for last month, which badly disappointed relative to expectations.

Since last month’s meeting, momentum in the US economy has clearly improved, with data for retail sales, consumer confidence, industrial production and consumer prices surprising relatively positively.

The possibility of both Brexit and a Trump victory may not be something that many have considered, or want to consider.