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Tim Fox

Tim Fox

Location
Dubai
Tim Fox is a partner at Capital Gate Advisors and the former chief economist at Emirates NBD

Articles

November looks likely to be a very strong month for equity markets, with global stocks on course for one of their biggest monthly rises on record. Reuters
Investor optimism in global equity markets faces risks

Strict virus control measures could weigh on economic data and Biden’s reforms may be impeded by a gridlock in the Senate

MoneyNovember 29, 2020
The mood of equity investors has been buoyant, with new historic highs on the Dow and S&P 500, up 4.08 per cent and 2.16 per cent, respectively. AP Photo
Markets pivot 180 degrees as normality begins to take hold

Biden’s win and the Covid-19 vaccine breakthrough caused equities to rally and bond markets to question how long zero rates and QE will persist

MoneyNovember 15, 2020
Even with former vice president Joe Biden leading in both the national opinion polls and in many of the key swing states, memories of President Donald Trump’s surprise 2016 victory are still vivid, meaning that with hours to go, nothing can be taken for granted. Saul Loeb / AFP
Camera32
A contested US presidential election will trigger a flight to safety

It could create more volatility across the board and prompt the Fed to increase quantitative easing

MoneyNovember 02, 2020
The International Monetary Fund reduced the extent of the global contraction expected this year to -4.4 per cent from -5.2 per cent in June, and signalled a still relatively strong rebound in 2021 of 5.2 per cent. Reuters
Is the IMF's global economic outlook upgrade at odds with reality?

With many countries confronting a second phase of Covid-19, economic activity is likely to slump again

MoneyOctober 19, 2020
A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. After news of Donald Trump testing positive for the coronavirus, there is increasing likelihood that market pressures will persist now that the presidential election is less than one month away. AFP
Markets brace for turbulent times after Trump's Covid-19 diagnosis

Absence of a vaccine, no news on a pending US fiscal stimulus and ongoing US-China friction add to the uncertainty

MoneyOctober 04, 2020
The US Federal Reserve said is looking to maintain zero interest rates until inflation has risen to 2 per cent and then stays moderately above that level for some time. Reuters
Why markets shunned the Fed’s dovish stance

The US central bank's commitment to achieving inflation goals fails to ignite market confidence

MoneySeptember 20, 2020
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell announced a significant policy shift in the way the Fed targets inflation at his Jackson Hole speech a fortnight ago, moving away from a rigid 2 per cent inflation target and replacing it with a 'a flexible form of average inflation targeting'. AFP
Federal Reserve reignites euro-dollar currency tensions

Change to the Fed’s inflation target sets off renewed dollar weakness and triggers alarm in the eurozone

MoneySeptember 06, 2020
Turkey's central bank has increased mandatory reserve ratios for lenders that meet certain requirements for credit growth, but this has failed to reverse the lira’s losses. AFP
Turkish lira needs to avoid more ‘self-inflicted’ wounds

The central bank has been avoiding monetary policy tightening in the face of rising inflation

MoneyAugust 23, 2020
With money starting to exit equities and bonds offering slim returns, it comes as no surprise that other markets have moved into the limelight. AFP
Gold seizes the limelight as equities hesitate amid mixed data

Market concerns about corporate earnings, fresh stimulus measures, US-China relations and the US election in November may finally catch up with the bull market

MoneyAugust 10, 2020
In July, the EU approved a €750 billion economic stimulus plan. Bloomberg
The US dollar is struggling to resist an improving euro

The greenback is lagging on the back of a stalled Covid-19 stimulus plan, falling US 10-year Treasury yields and the EU budget deal

MoneyJuly 26, 2020
The stock exchange in Shanghai. The latest data shows that China returned to growth in the second quarter, although domestic consumption and investment remain weak. EPA
China’s stock rally defies broader market concerns

Global markets slide on rising US-China tensions and jump in coronavirus cases

MoneyJuly 12, 2020
People queue outside the Utah Department of workforce Services, in Salt Lake City. The markets should have been cautious about reading too much into May’s more encouraging US employment figures. Associated Press
Why we are now set for a U-shaped global economic recovery

May’s US jobs figures lifted markets, with many expecting a V-shaped turnaround, but gloomier data has changed the outlook

MoneyJune 14, 2020
In July, the EU approved a €750 billion economic stimulus plan. Bloomberg
The euro rallies as the European Union addresses fiscal flaws

The currency is now at its highest level since lockdowns began in the continent in March

MoneyMay 31, 2020
Among the concerns are renewed US-China trade and financial market tensions, after Donald Trump blamed China for causing the Covid-19 pandemic. Bloomberg
The three concerns demanding market attention over the past week

How policymakers respond to the crisis has consequences for economies and stock markets

MoneyMay 17, 2020
A man looks at an electronic stock board showing Japan's Nikkei 225 index at a securities firm in Tokyo. Tim Fox says there are still plenty of reasons to remain wary of the pace and extent of recent equity market recoveries. Assoicated Press
Markets are in better shape but they haven't priced in the warnings on what's to come

Scientists and policymakers are urging caution, and Donald Trump's campaign against China may also be costly

MoneyMay 03, 2020
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