Can the US draw a firm red line for Israel’s military conduct?


Nada AlTaher
  • English
  • Arabic

Over the past year of war in Gaza, several diplomatic and humanitarian organisations, including the UN, have repeatedly accused Israel of breaching rules of military conduct. These breaches have provoked regular condemnation by governments and high-ranking officials worldwide. But amid all the words, what has been missing is concrete action against Israel.

If any authority has the power to influence Israel's actions, it is the US – its strongest ally and main source of military aid.

The death toll in Gaza has passed 42,400, with thousands more bodies thought to be buried under rubble and tens of thousands dying from indirect causes. In Lebanon, where densely populated neighbourhoods are being hit by air strikes, at least 2,300 have been killed and 1.2 million displaced.

Earlier this year, the International Court of Justice determined that it was plausible that Israel may be committing genocide. Investigators and rights groups, including Amnesty International, have warned the US that it may be complicit in war crimes because of Israel’s unlawful use of American weapons.

In a rare development this week, a leaked document revealed US officials warning the Israeli government that future weapons shipments could be affected if the humanitarian crisis in Gaza is not addressed within 30 days. But with little having changed in the past year, and as Israel appears to defy any limits imposed on it, the question remains: will the US truly enforce any red lines?

On this episode of Beyond the Headlines, host Nada AlTaher speaks to Hala Rharrit, a former US diplomat who resigned in protest against Washington’s handling of the war. She also speaks to Mark Schwartz, a defence researcher at the RAND Corporation, to examine the White House's support for Israel. And we hear from Alex Vatanka, the founding director of the Iran programme at the Middle East Institute, on the prospects of Israeli retaliation against Tehran.

Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

RESULT

Arsenal 0 Chelsea 3
Chelsea: Willian (40'), Batshuayi (42', 49')

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

HIV on the rise in the region

A 2019 United Nations special analysis on Aids reveals 37 per cent of new HIV infections in the Mena region are from people injecting drugs.

New HIV infections have also risen by 29 per cent in western Europe and Asia, and by 7 per cent in Latin America, but declined elsewhere.

Egypt has shown the highest increase in recorded cases of HIV since 2010, up by 196 per cent.

Access to HIV testing, treatment and care in the region is well below the global average.  

Few statistics have been published on the number of cases in the UAE, although a UNAIDS report said 1.5 per cent of the prison population has the virus.

What can victims do?

Always use only regulated platforms

Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion

Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)

Report to local authorities

Warn others to prevent further harm

Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence

Updated: October 18, 2024, 12:19 PM
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