It has been five years since Riad Hijab defected as prime minister of Syria and two since he was chosen to chair the Syrian opposition umbrella group the High Negotiations Committee. On Monday evening, he abruptly resigned, ahead of two crucial meetings of Syrian opposition groups, one in Riyadh and one in the Russian Black Sea city of Sochi.
From initial reports, it appears Mr Hijab has not yet fully explained his reasons for resigning. But it is widely believed to hinge on the fate of Bashar Al Assad. The condition that Mr Al Assad leave before any political transition has been the sticking point for the UN-led negotiations. Yet in truth it had already become a moot point, mouthed by western governments and held tight by Syrians most committed to the revolution, but long buried beneath the rain of Russian bombs.
The biggest challenge that the HNC faced is that, in just two years, the ground shifted beneath their feet. Since Russia's entry into the Syrian civil war, the military balance has shifted back to the regime, and with it the balance of the political process.
Without military might to back up the Geneva process, there was little teeth to the endless negotiations. Contrast that with the Russian-sponsored "national dialogue" taking place this week. Not only has Russia used significant firepower in Syria to defend the regime, but it has explicitly threatened any Syrian groups that does not attend this week's conference. In the vastly weakened environment in which any opposition to Mr Al Assad now finds itself, that is not a risk many will be willing to take.
The Russian plan is gradually becoming clear. The idea of the Syrian Congress on National Dialogue is that many different opposition groups are invited – 33 at the last count – in order to chart a path to elections in Syria. Those elections could result in Mr Al Assad stepping down, but only if he suffered a conclusive defeat. As Mr Al Assad well knows, that will not happen. There has been no point in Syria's recent history, even during the last years of Hafez Al Assad, where a viable opposition candidate for president has existed. There is no candidate today.
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Three years ago, during the worst days of the Syrian civil war, I argued that, in a free and fair election, Bashar Al Assad would still win. That remains the case today. Despite the destruction, starvation and torture, there is no single candidate – not even a single group – who could win over sufficient sections of the population to win an election outright. That is without even factoring in the inevitable pressure on media outlets, the majority of whom are based in the Al Assad stronghold of Damascus, to promote the president at the expense of other candidates.
The Russian plan is that the Al Assad regime would remain the strongest force in the country, with other groups included, if not exactly for show, then in order to draw certain sections of the population into the political process. But Mr Al Assad's faction would remain the largest bloc.
If that sounds familiar, it is because another Arab leader stayed in power the same way for many years: Ali Abdullah Saleh.
Speaking last year at a conference in London, Mr Hijab warned that allowing Mr Al Assad even a small measure of movement would doom any Syrian transition. He gave the example of Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen.
Forced to step down from the presidency after Arab Spring protests in 2011, Mr Saleh remained in the country, avoided an asset-freeze, retained allies in the military and remained influential in the political party he founded and which dominated Yemen's parliament. Those four elements allowed Saleh to gradually rebuild influence, to the point where he could back the Houthi rebels and ride their coat-tails to Sanaa.
Mr Hijab feared the same thing would happen if Mr Al Assad was forced from power but remained influential inside Syria or within the ruling Baath Party.
That now seems a hopelessly optimistic scenario. Mr Al Assad out of power but still in party politics? It was difficult to imagine a year ago; it is the stuff of fantasy today.
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In fact, there is a Yemen analogy for Syria’s future, but it is a rather different one than Mr Hijab imagined. Instead, it is the one that existed in Yemen for two decades before the Arab Spring revolution. Mr Saleh, leading the party he founded, the General People's Congress (GPC), made alliances left and right, but always ensured the GPC remained dominant.
Indeed, in every Yemeni election since unification in 1990, Mr Saleh's GPC was the largest party. It remained so throughout the revolution, after he stepped down, and even to this day. By ensuring that the GPC remained the dominant party, smaller parties could be courted and, eventually, discarded. But Mr Saleh's position remained unassailable.
The trajectory of the Russian-sponsored dialogue seems to indicate that is the desired outcome, with the Al Assad regime and the Baath Party as primus inter pares, first among equals.
That situation, already enshrined in Syria's constitution with the Baath party guaranteed a “leading role” in government, will now be extended to negotiations over the future of the regime, with the number of groups taking part in the dialogue so wide that no conceivable grouping could out-flank the regime. A government of national unity, if it ever happened, would be presided over by Bashar Al Assad.
Don't expect it to work. Such an outcome, while it may temporarily keep the regime and its backers happy, will not resolve any of the underlying tensions in Syrian society. Rather than dissipating, they will be delayed. The 2011 eruption of anger, then, will simply be one more in a series of explosions, rather than, as the protesters hoped all those years ago, the beginning of a new relationship between citizen and state.
Honeymoonish
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WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
Company%20Profile
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Napoleon
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Details
Through Her Lens: The stories behind the photography of Eva Sereny
Forewords by Jacqueline Bisset and Charlotte Rampling, ACC Art Books
LAST-16 EUROPA LEAGUE FIXTURES
Wednesday (Kick-offs UAE)
FC Copenhagen (0) v Istanbul Basaksehir (1) 8.55pm
Shakhtar Donetsk (2) v Wolfsburg (1) 8.55pm
Inter Milan v Getafe (one leg only) 11pm
Manchester United (5) v LASK (0) 11pm
Thursday
Bayer Leverkusen (3) v Rangers (1) 8.55pm
Sevilla v Roma (one leg only) 8.55pm
FC Basel (3) v Eintracht Frankfurt (0) 11pm
Wolves (1) Olympiakos (1) 11pm
The specs: 2018 Maxus T60
Price, base / as tested: Dh48,000
Engine: 2.4-litre four-cylinder
Power: 136hp @ 1,600rpm
Torque: 360Nm @ 1,600 rpm
Transmission: Five-speed manual
Fuel consumption, combined: 9.1L / 100km
UFC%20FIGHT%20NIGHT%3A%20SAUDI%20ARABIA%20RESULTS
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The biog
Family: He is the youngest of five brothers, of whom two are dentists.
Celebrities he worked on: Fabio Canavaro, Lojain Omran, RedOne, Saber Al Rabai.
Where he works: Liberty Dental Clinic
The stats
Ship name: MSC Bellissima
Ship class: Meraviglia Class
Delivery date: February 27, 2019
Gross tonnage: 171,598 GT
Passenger capacity: 5,686
Crew members: 1,536
Number of cabins: 2,217
Length: 315.3 metres
Maximum speed: 22.7 knots (42kph)
The specs: 2018 Volkswagen Teramont
Price, base / as tested Dh137,000 / Dh189,950
Engine 3.6-litre V6
Gearbox Eight-speed automatic
Power 280hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 360Nm @ 2,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 11.7L / 100km
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
Types of fraud
Phishing: Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.
Smishing: The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.
Vishing: The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.
SIM swap: Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
Identity theft: Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.
Prize scams: Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.
* Nada El Sawy
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Sheikh Zayed's poem
When it is unveiled at Abu Dhabi Art, the Standing Tall exhibition will appear as an interplay of poetry and art. The 100 scarves are 100 fragments surrounding five, figurative, female sculptures, and both sculptures and scarves are hand-embroidered by a group of refugee women artisans, who used the Palestinian cross-stitch embroidery art of tatreez. Fragments of Sheikh Zayed’s poem Your Love is Ruling My Heart, written in Arabic as a love poem to his nation, are embroidered onto both the sculptures and the scarves. Here is the English translation.
Your love is ruling over my heart
Your love is ruling over my heart, even a mountain can’t bear all of it
Woe for my heart of such a love, if it befell it and made it its home
You came on me like a gleaming sun, you are the cure for my soul of its sickness
Be lenient on me, oh tender one, and have mercy on who because of you is in ruins
You are like the Ajeed Al-reem [leader of the gazelle herd] for my country, the source of all of its knowledge
You waddle even when you stand still, with feet white like the blooming of the dates of the palm
Oh, who wishes to deprive me of sleep, the night has ended and I still have not seen you
You are the cure for my sickness and my support, you dried my throat up let me go and damp it
Help me, oh children of mine, for in his love my life will pass me by.
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More from Neighbourhood Watch
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Zayed Sustainability Prize
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Match info
What: Fifa Club World Cup play-off
Who: Al Ain v Team Wellington
Where: Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
When: Wednesday, kick off 7.30pm
The%20Killer
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Dr Graham's three goals
Short term
Establish logistics and systems needed to globally deploy vaccines
Intermediate term
Build biomedical workforces in low- and middle-income nations
Long term
A prototype pathogen approach for pandemic preparedness
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
The Land between Two Rivers: Writing in an Age of Refugees
Tom Sleigh, Graywolf Press
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed
'Downton Abbey: A New Era'
Director: Simon Curtis
Cast: Hugh Bonneville, Elizabeth McGovern, Maggie Smith, Michelle Dockery, Laura Carmichael, Jim Carter and Phyllis Logan
Rating: 4/5
Tips on buying property during a pandemic
Islay Robinson, group chief executive of mortgage broker Enness Global, offers his advice on buying property in today's market.
While many have been quick to call a market collapse, this simply isn’t what we’re seeing on the ground. Many pockets of the global property market, including London and the UAE, continue to be compelling locations to invest in real estate.
While an air of uncertainty remains, the outlook is far better than anyone could have predicted. However, it is still important to consider the wider threat posed by Covid-19 when buying bricks and mortar.
Anything with outside space, gardens and private entrances is a must and these property features will see your investment keep its value should the pandemic drag on. In contrast, flats and particularly high-rise developments are falling in popularity and investors should avoid them at all costs.
Attractive investment property can be hard to find amid strong demand and heightened buyer activity. When you do find one, be prepared to move hard and fast to secure it. If you have your finances in order, this shouldn’t be an issue.
Lenders continue to lend and rates remain at an all-time low, so utilise this. There is no point in tying up cash when you can keep this liquidity to maximise other opportunities.
Keep your head and, as always when investing, take the long-term view. External factors such as coronavirus or Brexit will present challenges in the short-term, but the long-term outlook remains strong.
Finally, keep an eye on your currency. Whenever currency fluctuations favour foreign buyers, you can bet that demand will increase, as they act to secure what is essentially a discounted property.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 268hp at 5,600rpm
Torque: 380Nm at 4,800rpm
Transmission: CVT auto
Fuel consumption: 9.5L/100km
On sale: now
Price: from Dh195,000