Boris Johnson is the top contender for the leadership of the Conservative party . AP
Boris Johnson is the top contender for the leadership of the Conservative party . AP

With Brexit looming, luck will not be enough for the UK's next prime minister



There is no precise formula for success in politics. It’s a peculiar alchemy of talent, tenacity, temperament and timing. The British Conservative party is now in the middle of a messy leadership race, which will result in its third prime minister in three years.

The apparent favourite is the former foreign secretary Boris Johnson, but why some people succeed while other, better candidates fail remains a puzzle. The US Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes famously observed that President Franklin Roosevelt owed his success to "a second-class intellect, but a first-class temperament." In his famous radio "fireside chats", Roosevelt certainly showed that he understood how to communicate with ordinary Americans.

Some British political observers believe that Boris Johnson is likely to become our next prime minister because he is also, in some way “relatable”. Mr Johnson’s personal life, even his appearance, seems chaotic, which perhaps makes us feel better about our own foibles.

Showing a degree of humanity in politics definitely is useful. The UK's outgoing prime minister Theresa May was noted for her tenacity, but she was so distant and cold that she frequently appeared robotic. When faced with the prospect of meeting victims of the disastrous fire at Grenfell Tower building in London, two years ago, she couldn't manage to do what most of us would have done and console them. Bill Clinton, on the other hand, and Barack Obama were leaders of first-class intellects who proved themselves to be big on empathy, too.

The first major politician I ever met was a far-right British Conservative, Enoch Powell. Powell was talented – a former army brigadier, who rose through the ranks, and a professor of classics. However, he is best known for his appalling comments about race relations in Britain. He was sacked and ended his career a kind of exile in Northern Ireland. He wrote: “All political lives, unless they are cut off in midstream at a happy juncture, end in failure, because that is the nature of politics and of human affairs.”

When I interviewed Powell, he made what I thought was a much sharper observation. He said that while politicians reach the level of the top table of government, in the Cabinet as senior ministers, owing to talent, they get to be leaders because of luck.

Many talented, tenacious and thoughtful politicians get near the top but do not quite make it. William Hague, now Lord Hague, was leader of the British Conservative party for a time. His misfortune was that his time was 1997 to 2001, the years when Tony Blair strode the world political stage. Hague got nowhere and quit.

Then there is Ed Miliband, a very intelligent, talented man and one-time leader of the British Labour party. In May 2015, during a very tough general election campaign which many people – including his closest advisers – expected Miliband to win, the Conservative leader David Cameron Tweeted: "Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice – stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband." Miliband lost. Cameron won by a healthy margin. Ironically, it was Cameron who provided anything but stability and strong government, as the EU referendum and the fiasco in which Britain now finds itself embroiled.

And so the time has come for another British leader to face the same key problem: Brexit. Boris Johnson has the air of a man who has been seeking the job of prime minister since birth. It may be his time. He is lucky his enemies and rivals are generally a lacklustre bunch prone to reciting dull-witted cliches.

Luck and timing may help Johnson as it did Emmanuel Macron in France and Donald Trump in the United States. Neither man would have reached the presidency of their countries a decade ago. But being something – in these cases, prime minister or president – is not the same as doing something.

Mr Johnson has been the mayor of London and foreign secretary, without significant achievements in either job.

If he becomes prime minister he inherits a deeply divided country in which voters are shocked at the failures of government. Moreover, he has promised to “deliver” Brexit, but that is not like delivering a baby. Stop 10 British people in the street and ask what “Brexit” means to them and they will offer 10 different, often mutually exclusive, definitions.

I'm not worried that the career of Britain's next prime minister will end in failure. I am worried that, with the next Brexit deadline set for October 31, the next prime minister's career will begin in failure. The clock is ticking. Making a "success" of Brexit may not even be possible and, right now, it appears that luck is no longer enough. Being honest about the difficulties ahead would be a good place to start.

Gavin Esler is a journalist, author and television presenter

How to avoid crypto fraud
  • Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
  • Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
  • Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
  • Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
  • Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
  • Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
  • Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
Kandahar%20
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THE DETAILS

Director: Milan Jhaveri
Producer: Emmay Entertainment and T-Series
Cast: John Abraham, Manoj Bajpayee
Rating: 2/5

The%20Genius%20of%20Their%20Age
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20S%20Frederick%20Starr%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Oxford%20University%20Press%3Cbr%3EPages%3A%20290%3Cbr%3EAvailable%3A%20January%2024%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
From Zero

Artist: Linkin Park

Label: Warner Records

Number of tracks: 11

Rating: 4/5

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStreaming%20on%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMBC%20Shahid%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Other workplace saving schemes
  • The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
  • Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
  • National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
  • In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
  • Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
Emergency

Director: Kangana Ranaut

Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry 

Rating: 2/5

Cryopreservation: A timeline
  1. Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
  2. Ovarian tissue surgically removed
  3. Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
  4. Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
  5. Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
ULTRA PROCESSED FOODS

- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns 

- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;

- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces

- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,

- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.

How%20to%20avoid%20getting%20scammed
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3ENever%20click%20on%20links%20provided%20via%20app%20or%20SMS%2C%20even%20if%20they%20seem%20to%20come%20from%20authorised%20senders%20at%20first%20glance%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EAlways%20double-check%20the%20authenticity%20of%20websites%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EEnable%20Two-Factor%20Authentication%20(2FA)%20for%20all%20your%20working%20and%20personal%20services%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EOnly%20use%20official%20links%20published%20by%20the%20respective%20entity%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EDouble-check%20the%20web%20addresses%20to%20reduce%20exposure%20to%20fake%20sites%20created%20with%20domain%20names%20containing%20spelling%20errors%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
German intelligence warnings
  • 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
  • 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
  • 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250 

Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution

Results

2pm: Serve U – Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (Dirt) 1,400m; Winner: Violent Justice, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer)

2.30pm: Al Shafar Investment – Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (D) 1,400m; Winner: Desert Wisdom, Bernardo Pinheiro, Ahmed Al Shemaili

3pm: Commercial Bank of Dubai – Handicap (TB) Dh68,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: Fawaareq, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson

3.30pm: Shadwell – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Down On Da Bayou, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer

4pm: Dubai Real Estate Centre – Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Rakeez, Patrick Cosgrave, Bhupat Seemar

4.30pm: Al Redha Insurance Brokers – Handicap (TB) Dh78,000 (D) 1,800m; Winner: Capla Crusader, Bernardo Pinheiro, Rashed Bouresly

How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Paatal Lok season two

Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy 

Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong

Rating: 4.5/5

OTHER IPL BOWLING RECORDS

Best bowling figures: 6-14 – Sohail Tanvir (for Rajasthan Royals against Chennai Super Kings in 2008)

Best average: 16.36 – Andrew Tye

Best economy rate: 6.53 – Sunil Narine

Best strike-rate: 12.83 – Andrew Tye

Best strike-rate in an innings: 1.50 – Suresh Raina (for Chennai Super Kings against Rajasthan Royals in 2011)

Most runs conceded in an innings: 70 – Basil Thampi (for Sunrisers Hyderabad against Royal Challengers Bangalore in 2018)

Most hat-tricks: 3 – Amit Mishra

Most dot-balls: 1,128 – Harbhajan Singh

Most maiden overs bowled: 14 – Praveen Kumar

Most four-wicket hauls: 6 – Sunil Narine

 

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Astra%20Tech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbdallah%20Abu%20Sheikh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20technology%20investment%20and%20development%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20size%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to help

Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send "thenational" to the following numbers:

2289 - Dh10

2252 - Dh50

6025 - Dh20

6027 - Dh100

6026 - Dh200

Representing%20UAE%20overseas
%3Cp%3E%0DIf%20Catherine%20Richards%20debuts%20for%20Wales%20in%20the%20Six%20Nations%2C%20she%20will%20be%20the%20latest%20to%20have%20made%20it%20from%20the%20UAE%20to%20the%20top%20tier%20of%20the%20international%20game%20in%20the%20oval%20ball%20codes.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESeren%20Gough-Walters%20(Wales%20rugby%20league)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EBorn%20in%20Dubai%2C%20raised%20in%20Sharjah%2C%20and%20once%20an%20immigration%20officer%20at%20the%20British%20Embassy%20in%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20she%20debuted%20for%20Wales%20in%20rugby%20league%20in%202021.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESophie%20Shams%20(England%20sevens)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EWith%20an%20Emirati%20father%20and%20English%20mother%2C%20Shams%20excelled%20at%20rugby%20at%20school%20in%20Dubai%2C%20and%20went%20on%20to%20represent%20England%20on%20the%20sevens%20circuit.%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFiona%20Reidy%20(Ireland)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMade%20her%20Test%20rugby%20bow%20for%20Ireland%20against%20England%20in%202015%2C%20having%20played%20for%20four%20years%20in%20the%20capital%20with%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Harlequins%20previously.%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.

When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.

How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
The Sand Castle

Director: Matty Brown

Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea

Rating: 2.5/5