What does Washington expect as it reimposes extensive sanctions on Iran, and how does it predict Tehran would respond to its economic strangulation? The Trump administration will not back down from its determination to put extreme pressure on Iran’s government until it agrees to renegotiate the nuclear deal and rein in its regional expansionism by bringing back its forces behind its national borders.
The sanctions targeting the oil sector and financial and banking transactions could force Iran to yield and agree to secret negotiations, as happened during US President Donald Trump's predecessor Barack Obama’s tenure, before going public. The Trump administration is ready to negotiate, but on the basis of the clear criteria it has set out, which Tehran has so far rejected. If the Iranian regime chooses to escalate in response to the sanctions, Lebanon is the candidate arena, in which case Washington may not oppose an Israeli decision to respond to provocation there.
However, there is a possibility for "implicit" co-operation in Yemen, if Tehran decides to buy some time or benefit from the new-found US insistence on ending the war there, as declared by both Secretary of Defence James Mattis and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Meanwhile, the recent visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Oman was not strictly part of the "deal of the century context", as was made clear by Omani foreign minister Yusuf bin Alawi. The sands are shifting in the Middle East.
Following a tour that took me from Sochi to Beirut, then Riyadh and Washington via Manama, it is possible to draw some conclusions regarding fixed and shifting positions, and ongoing conflicts.
On the issue of the putative deal of the century between Israel and the Palestinians, the reported 40 pages containing the non-negotiable elements of the framework agreements will not be revealed before elections take place in Israel. This means the unveiling won’t come until spring. Informed sources, however, say that the elements of the deal will leave both sides with gains and a better position, compared to before the deal.
The details of the deal are a secret that is hard to uncover. But in terms of the formulation, it is possible to infer that the Trump White House has presented itself to Israel as the US administration most committed to defending Israeli interests, with appointments such as National Security Adviser John Bolton and the outgoing UN envoy Nikki Haley, as part of its efforts to encourage Israel to facilitate a deal. It is also possible to infer that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who is furious about the deal, is being ostracised because of the way he has handled it, and that the Trump administration will hold him responsible for thwarting any deal if he continues to take the same approach.
The Trump administration believes Palestine is not a priority issue for the Arab countries, some of which are ostensibly willing to turn a new leaf with Israel. Mr Bin Alawi stressed the time has come to put the past behind us and look to the future, with an Israeli state side by side with a Palestinian state, whose nature, however, is yet to be decided. He did not address the issue of Jerusalem, but it seems that the Trump administration wants East Jerusalem, which the Arabs want to be the capital of Palestine, to be instead a city open to everyone.
On Syria, the Russian prioritisation of this issue was clear at the Valdai Club session in Sochi. But in Washington, Riyadh and Manama, the Syrian issue was secondary. This is set to continue at this stage, perhaps until the fate of Idlib is settled, although all indications suggest this issue will be protracted and complicated.
The issue of the Iranian military presence in Syria, direct or by means of its proxies, will not be settled overnight. The Trump administration is hoping that sanctions on Iran will deny it crucial resources to sustain its expansion in Syria and to finance the likes of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
According to an official source who spoke on condition of anonymity, the US believes the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will not be able to continue financing Hezbollah and will instead “milk the Lebanese budget” through the powerful militant party. This is what happened to Iraq during the first round of sanctions with Iran, as Iraq’s budget was diverted to assist Iran.
The Trump administration will be closely watching Iranian domestic developments, not just in terms of popular reactions to the sanctions – the US expects the Iranian people to put pressure on the regime to end their adventures in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen – but also to monitor the issue of succession: who will succeed the Supreme Leader and how will the IRGC act until then?
One US source says Tehran continues to pursue the project to build military platforms in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, and that the IRGC leadership has taken “more aggressive” decisions independently of the Iranian government and Iranian public opinion. If the IRGC chooses to escalate in response to the sanctions, “there will be serious implications for Iran and Lebanon,” the source said, adding that Israel could respond violently to a provocation. “We will support [Israel] to defend itself if this happens.” According to the same source, who asked not to be named: “We are cautioning the Lebanese against the implications of an unacceptable escalation, through which Hezbollah could drag Lebanon to a devastating war.”
The Trump administration itself is amazed by the confusion and shock in the ranks of the ruling echelons in Tehran, as the Europeans seem to be going along with the US policy, contrary to the Iranian wager on dividing the West. The source says that after the new sanctions, “it will be very difficult for them to make decisions unanimously, which makes their options very limited and there will be a price for this”.
Saudi Arabia remains a fundamental component of US policy on Iran. Senior members of the Trump administration have made it clear that the relationship is strategic and ongoing. They say the time has come for a full rethink of the Yemen war, and that the challenges today require putting the Gulf house back in order, including retrieving Qatar from the Turkish embrace, as Ankara exploits the current opening to advance its agenda.
The priority now is the Yemen issue. The US Secretary of Defence was the first to announce the new US strategy in Yemen, which was backed later by the Secretary of State. Mr Mattis said the principle of making “concessions” must take priority over military settlement of the battle. He proposed a formula to end the conflict and let the diplomats “do their magic”. The formula includes securing the Saudi border through demilitarised zones in Yemeni territories adjacent to Saudi Arabia, and pushing the Houthis to engage in negotiations and maintain some kind of self-rule in their territories. Mr Mattis said the Houthis do not need Iran to achieve this, accusing Tehran of using Yemen and the Houthi rebels as "highways” for its missiles.
How can the Houthis be made to abandon Iran, or how can Iran be made to stop using Yemen and the Houthis against Saudi Arabia? The answer is not yet clear.
Sands are shifting and fatal storms loom large. But the region may survive yet, and what now appear to be cyclones may turn out to be passing winds. The season for surprises in the Middle East may only be beginning.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
SANCTIONED
- Kirill Shamalov, Russia's youngest billionaire and previously married to Putin's daughter Katarina
- Petr Fradkov, head of recently sanctioned Promsvyazbank and son of former head of Russian Foreign Intelligence, the FSB.
- Denis Bortnikov, Deputy President of Russia's largest bank VTB. He is the son of Alexander Bortnikov, head of the FSB which was responsible for the poisoning of political activist Alexey Navalny in August 2020 with banned chemical agent novichok.
- Yury Slyusar, director of United Aircraft Corporation, a major aircraft manufacturer for the Russian military.
- Elena Aleksandrovna Georgieva, chair of the board of Novikombank, a state-owned defence conglomerate.
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Why your domicile status is important
Your UK residence status is assessed using the statutory residence test. While your residence status – ie where you live - is assessed every year, your domicile status is assessed over your lifetime.
Your domicile of origin generally comes from your parents and if your parents were not married, then it is decided by your father. Your domicile is generally the country your father considered his permanent home when you were born.
UK residents who have their permanent home ("domicile") outside the UK may not have to pay UK tax on foreign income. For example, they do not pay tax on foreign income or gains if they are less than £2,000 in the tax year and do not transfer that gain to a UK bank account.
A UK-domiciled person, however, is liable for UK tax on their worldwide income and gains when they are resident in the UK.
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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La Mer lowdown
La Mer beach is open from 10am until midnight, daily, and is located in Jumeirah 1, well after Kite Beach. Some restaurants, like Cupagahwa, are open from 8am for breakfast; most others start at noon. At the time of writing, we noticed that signs for Vicolo, an Italian eatery, and Kaftan, a Turkish restaurant, indicated that these two restaurants will be open soon, most likely this month. Parking is available, as well as a Dh100 all-day valet option or a Dh50 valet service if you’re just stopping by for a few hours.
The specs: Lamborghini Aventador SVJ
Price, base: Dh1,731,672
Engine: 6.5-litre V12
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 770hp @ 8,500rpm
Torque: 720Nm @ 6,750rpm
Fuel economy: 19.6L / 100km
Race%20card
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Country-size land deals
US interest in purchasing territory is not as outlandish as it sounds. Here's a look at some big land transactions between nations:
Louisiana Purchase
If Donald Trump is one who aims to broker "a deal of the century", then this was the "deal of the 19th Century". In 1803, the US nearly doubled in size when it bought 2,140,000 square kilometres from France for $15 million.
Florida Purchase Treaty
The US courted Spain for Florida for years. Spain eventually realised its burden in holding on to the territory and in 1819 effectively ceded it to America in a wider border treaty.
Alaska purchase
America's spending spree continued in 1867 when it acquired 1,518,800 km2 of Alaskan land from Russia for $7.2m. Critics panned the government for buying "useless land".
The Philippines
At the end of the Spanish-American War, a provision in the 1898 Treaty of Paris saw Spain surrender the Philippines for a payment of $20 million.
US Virgin Islands
It's not like a US president has never reached a deal with Denmark before. In 1917 the US purchased the Danish West Indies for $25m and renamed them the US Virgin Islands.
Gwadar
The most recent sovereign land purchase was in 1958 when Pakistan bought the southwestern port of Gwadar from Oman for 5.5bn Pakistan rupees.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
'The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey'
Rating: 3/5
Directors: Ramin Bahrani, Debbie Allen, Hanelle Culpepper, Guillermo Navarro
Writers: Walter Mosley
Stars: Samuel L Jackson, Dominique Fishback, Walton Goggins
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
What is Folia?
Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed bin Talal's new plant-based menu will launch at Four Seasons hotels in Dubai this November. A desire to cater to people looking for clean, healthy meals beyond green salad is what inspired Prince Khaled and American celebrity chef Matthew Kenney to create Folia. The word means "from the leaves" in Latin, and the exclusive menu offers fine plant-based cuisine across Four Seasons properties in Los Angeles, Bahrain and, soon, Dubai.
Kenney specialises in vegan cuisine and is the founder of Plant Food Wine and 20 other restaurants worldwide. "I’ve always appreciated Matthew’s work," says the Saudi royal. "He has a singular culinary talent and his approach to plant-based dining is prescient and unrivalled. I was a fan of his long before we established our professional relationship."
Folia first launched at The Four Seasons Hotel Los Angeles at Beverly Hills in July 2018. It is available at the poolside Cabana Restaurant and for in-room dining across the property, as well as in its private event space. The food is vibrant and colourful, full of fresh dishes such as the hearts of palm ceviche with California fruit, vegetables and edible flowers; green hearb tacos filled with roasted squash and king oyster barbacoa; and a savoury coconut cream pie with macadamia crust.
In March 2019, the Folia menu reached Gulf shores, as it was introduced at the Four Seasons Hotel Bahrain Bay, where it is served at the Bay View Lounge. Next, on Tuesday, November 1 – also known as World Vegan Day – it will come to the UAE, to the Four Seasons Resort Dubai at Jumeirah Beach and the Four Seasons DIFC, both properties Prince Khaled has spent "considerable time at and love".
There are also plans to take Folia to several more locations throughout the Middle East and Europe.
While health-conscious diners will be attracted to the concept, Prince Khaled is careful to stress Folia is "not meant for a specific subset of customers. It is meant for everyone who wants a culinary experience without the negative impact that eating out so often comes with."
UAE rugby season
FIXTURES
West Asia Premiership
Dubai Hurricanes v Dubai Knights Eagles
Dubai Tigers v Bahrain
Jebel Ali Dragons v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Division 1
Dubai Sharks v Dubai Hurricanes II
Al Ain Amblers v Dubai Knights Eagles II
Dubai Tigers II v Abu Dhabi Saracens
Jebel Ali Dragons II v Abu Dhabi Harlequins II
Sharjah Wanderers v Dubai Exiles II
LAST SEASON
West Asia Premiership
Winners – Bahrain
Runners-up – Dubai Exiles
UAE Premiership
Winners – Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Runners-up – Jebel Ali Dragons
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners – Dubai Hurricanes
Runners-up – Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Conference
Winners – Dubai Tigers
Runners-up – Al Ain Amblers
21 Lessons for the 21st Century
Yuval Noah Harari, Jonathan Cape
More on animal trafficking
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
WORLD CUP SEMI-FINALS
England v New Zealand
(Saturday, 12pm UAE)
Wales v South Africa
(Sunday, 12pm, UAE)
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh122,745
On sale: now
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'Ashkal'
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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INFO
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How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
england euro squad
Goalkeepers: Dean Henderson (Man Utd), Sam Johnstone (West Brom), Jordan Pickford (Everton)
Defenders: John Stones (Man City), Luke Shaw (Man Utd), Harry Maguire (Man Utd), Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool), Kyle Walker (Man City), Tyrone Mings (Aston Villa), Reece James (Chelsea), Conor Coady (Wolves), Ben Chilwell (Chelsea), Kieran Trippier (Atletico Madrid)
Midfielders: Mason Mount (Chelsea), Declan Rice (West Ham), Jordan Henderson (Liverpool), Jude Bellingham (Borussia Dortmund), Kalvin Phillips (Leeds)
Forwards: Harry Kane (Tottenham), Marcus Rashford (Man Utd), Raheem Sterling (Man City), Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Everton), Phil Foden (Man City), Jack Grealish (Aston Villa), Jadon Sancho (Borussia Dortmund), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal)
Ovo's tips to find extra heat
- Open your curtains when it’s sunny
- Keep your oven open after cooking
- Have a cuddle with pets and loved ones to help stay cosy
- Eat ginger but avoid chilli as it makes you sweat
- Put on extra layers
- Do a few star jumps
- Avoid alcohol