US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo testifies before a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC on July 25, 2018.  / AFP / ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / AFP

Maximal pressure, minimum impact: how US-Iranian war of words is unlikely to be matched with action



Are the United States and Iran preparing to go to war? The prospect has certainly advanced considerably since Donald Trump became president and, particularly, when he withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement. But there might be less going on than meets the eye.

This was ostensibly in response to a speech by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani saying Washington faces a choice between "the mother of all wars” and “the mother of all peace" when dealing with Iran.

Mr Rouhani’s speech was somewhat obnoxious but by no means unusual. Friends and foes alike agreed that Mr Trump was actually trying to change the subject from his disastrous, universally condemned press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in which he seemed to side with Russia, and not the US, on each and every contentious issue.

If that was his goal, it certainly worked. The master of misdirection finally got everyone talking about something else.

But there is a real context for this heightened anxiety. Having left the nuclear deal, Washington has instituted a campaign of maximal pressure against Tehran, primarily in the form of a massive financial war that is having a decidedly negative impact on Iran's already shaky economy.

Iran already felt threatened and was further alarmed by Mr Trump's tweets and a major Iran-focused policy speech by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Mr Pompeo indexed the malevolent and hypocritical conduct of Iranian rulers and emphasised the contradiction between their policies and the interests of the Iranian people. While the State Department denied he was calling for a regime change, he said Mr Trump would only be prepared to sit down with Iranian leaders if there were "demonstrable, tangible, irreversible changes in the regime".

This combination of financial and psychological warfare has produced a real response from Tehran. Iran's chief regional mischief maker, Major General Qassem Soleimani, told Mr Trump a war would "destroy all you possess", along with other dire, exaggerated threats.

In an effort to demonstrate the diversity of its asymmetrical capabilities, Iran cut electricity supplies to Iraqi provinces, supposedly due to unpaid bills but almost certainly to make a broader point to the West, its allies and Iraqis.

Further, the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, causing Riyadh to suspend shipments through that crucial waterway, while Iran yet again threatened to seal off the Strait of Hormuz.

In other words, what began as a politically motivated rhetorical turn quickly spiralled into a cascading set of tit-for-tat gestures bringing the parties closer to conflict than they have been in many years.

Yet there's no reason to believe either side really wants an all-out conflict and, apart from reckless words, both are being fairly restrained in deeds.

Mr Trump knows full well that he was not elected to start additional, avoidable, wars. He would only do that if he believed it was absolutely necessary for his political survival.

____________________________

Read more from Hussein Ibish:

____________________________

Whether or not Mr Pompeo's speech implied that Washington's new policy goal might be regime change in Tehran, that will likely prove a chimera. There is simply no example in modern history of regime change resulting primarily from external pressure, even under far more onerous conditions and with substantially more unrest and alternative potential leaderships than currently exist in Tehran.

Cuba, North Korea, Iraq and Iran itself all suggest that financial and diplomatic pressures alone will only make Iran more impoverished but also more bellicose and angry and probably more unified. The regime may well change but probably not in the way Mr Pompeo wants.

Just to keep us on our toes, midweek Mr Trump suddenly suggested he was open to a "new deal" with Iran. Mr Pompeo has also repeatedly said this is the ultimate goal of Washington's new campaign.

We have entered an extended period of mutual pressure and bluster in which both sides, believing that they are operating from considerable strengths, will seek to harass and isolate each other.

But when the dust settles, unless Iran and America blunder into war, both will realise the limitations of what they can achieve during the current stand-off.

And then we will be back at the bargaining table, possibly beginning with a European overture to Tehran. Iran will return weakened but Washington and its allies still might not get everything they are hoping for.

Much will depend on how much military and strategic pressure Mr Trump is really willing to shoulder. Financial and psychological warfare alone won't achieve much. Unless Tehran soon experiences some serious strategic setbacks, this will prove a considerable and dangerous mistake.

Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States ­Institute in Washington

The Specs

Engine: 1.6-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 118hp
Torque: 149Nm
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Price: From Dh61,500
On sale: Now

MATCH INFO

Manchester United 1 (Fernandes pen 2') Tottenham Hotspur 6 (Ndombele 4', Son 7' & 37' Kane (30' & pen 79, Aurier 51')

Man of the match Son Heung-min (Tottenham)

Sinopharm vaccine explained

The Sinopharm vaccine was created using techniques that have been around for decades. 

“This is an inactivated vaccine. Simply what it means is that the virus is taken, cultured and inactivated," said Dr Nawal Al Kaabi, chair of the UAE's National Covid-19 Clinical Management Committee.

"What is left is a skeleton of the virus so it looks like a virus, but it is not live."

This is then injected into the body.

"The body will recognise it and form antibodies but because it is inactive, we will need more than one dose. The body will not develop immunity with one dose," she said.

"You have to be exposed more than one time to what we call the antigen."

The vaccine should offer protection for at least months, but no one knows how long beyond that.

Dr Al Kaabi said early vaccine volunteers in China were given shots last spring and still have antibodies today.

“Since it is inactivated, it will not last forever," she said.

EMIRATES'S REVISED A350 DEPLOYMENT SCHEDULE

Edinburgh: November 4 (unchanged)

Bahrain: November 15 (from September 15); second daily service from January 1

Kuwait: November 15 (from September 16)

Mumbai: January 1 (from October 27)

Ahmedabad: January 1 (from October 27)

Colombo: January 2 (from January 1)

Muscat: March 1 (from December 1)

Lyon: March 1 (from December 1)

Bologna: March 1 (from December 1)

Source: Emirates

KEY DATES IN AMAZON'S HISTORY

July 5, 1994: Jeff Bezos founds Cadabra Inc, which would later be renamed to Amazon.com, because his lawyer misheard the name as 'cadaver'. In its earliest days, the bookstore operated out of a rented garage in Bellevue, Washington

July 16, 1995: Amazon formally opens as an online bookseller. Fluid Concepts and Creative Analogies: Computer Models of the Fundamental Mechanisms of Thought becomes the first item sold on Amazon

1997: Amazon goes public at $18 a share, which has grown about 1,000 per cent at present. Its highest closing price was $197.85 on June 27, 2024

1998: Amazon acquires IMDb, its first major acquisition. It also starts selling CDs and DVDs

2000: Amazon Marketplace opens, allowing people to sell items on the website

2002: Amazon forms what would become Amazon Web Services, opening the Amazon.com platform to all developers. The cloud unit would follow in 2006

2003: Amazon turns in an annual profit of $75 million, the first time it ended a year in the black

2005: Amazon Prime is introduced, its first-ever subscription service that offered US customers free two-day shipping for $79 a year

2006: Amazon Unbox is unveiled, the company's video service that would later morph into Amazon Instant Video and, ultimately, Amazon Video

2007: Amazon's first hardware product, the Kindle e-reader, is introduced; the Fire TV and Fire Phone would come in 2014. Grocery service Amazon Fresh is also started

2009: Amazon introduces Amazon Basics, its in-house label for a variety of products

2010: The foundations for Amazon Studios were laid. Its first original streaming content debuted in 2013

2011: The Amazon Appstore for Google's Android is launched. It is still unavailable on Apple's iOS

2014: The Amazon Echo is launched, a speaker that acts as a personal digital assistant powered by Alexa

2017: Amazon acquires Whole Foods for $13.7 billion, its biggest acquisition

2018: Amazon's market cap briefly crosses the $1 trillion mark, making it, at the time, only the third company to achieve that milestone

MEDIEVIL (1998)

Developer: SCE Studio Cambridge
Publisher: Sony Computer Entertainment
Console: PlayStation, PlayStation 4 and 5
Rating: 3.5/5

Director: Nag Ashwin

Starring: Prabhas, Saswata Chatterjee, Deepika Padukone, Amitabh Bachchan, Shobhana

Rating: ★★★★