Carl von Clausewitz, the German military thinker and theorist, famously said “war is the continuation of politics by other means”. The combined US, French and UK attack on Syrian chemical weapons facilities on the night of April 13 is a perfect example of this adage. The strikes were political in nature and designed to send a simple message: do not use chemical weapons on civilian targets.
Although quite significant given the ordnance expended – hundreds of missiles at first count – the strike did not change an iota on the ground. The allies did not bomb any of the Syrian military installations, airbases, barracks or hardware, such as tanks, that could have enfeebled Bashar Al Assad’s ability to fight what is left of the insurgents.
Instead, they deliberately struck targets which they said were designed to degrade Syria's chemical arsenal. In so doing, they also avoided entangling themselves with Russians and Iranians, whose heavy presence could have inflicted casualties that would have unnecessarily risked a wider conflict.
Politics played a role in the multinational aspect of this assault. From an American perspective, the attack had to happen; the US establishment had rhetorically committed itself to taking action, especially after the April 2017 raid.
Unlike last year, President Donald Trump could not this time afford to act unilaterally again. Given his cascading problems at home with a variety of scandals, a solo American attack would have had no credibility as most observers, including those in the Middle East, the main audience, would have interpreted it as a deliberate diversionary effort. The need to enlist France and the UK meant that the scope of the raid had to automatically be limited to a political message.
In this, the French and British had the US Department of Defence on their side. Moreover, the allies appear to also have Nato's backing, including the Turks, who recently had been cosying up to the Russians and Iranians in Syria.
What is also of note are the very deliberate statements made by British Prime Minister Theresa May, French President Emmanuel Macron and US Secretary of Defence James Mattis when they acknowledged the strikes.
Mrs May emphasised that this was not “about regime change”, drawing clear political lines while Mr Macron, in an allusion to Barack Obama’s failed decision in 2013, argued that “a red line had been crossed”, thus not only articulating the justification but also setting a clear benchmark for future action. In other words, Mr Macron was indicating were the Syrian regime not to get the message and once again engage in the use of chemical weapons then the allies would strike again, perhaps this time with regime targets in their sights. Finally, Mr Mattis made reference to the Geneva process: that is, the international effort to construct a political solution, as the way forward.
Coordinated or not, rarely have we seen three leaders express such clear political goals. Mr Trump, on the other hand, may have temporarily distracted the public's attention from his problems but this is unlikely to last and hence will be seen as inconsequential in this regard.
The larger picture in Syria, however, does not get altered by these strikes. There is no allied strategy in Syria. Washington in particular is in a state of chaos and confusion when it comes to Syria. Mr Trump, for reasons that are unclear to many, only 10 days ago intimated that he wanted the US contingent in eastern Syria removed, and quickly. It is only after a pushback from the Pentagon and Centcom that he modified his request and extended his deadline.
The Defence Department sees its mission as defeating ISIS, whose remnants are still scattered throughout the region amid fears that a precipitous withdrawal will enable its rejuvenation.
It is also solicitous of its allies, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who sacrificed many lives in this fight. Beyond these narrow objectives lie a discussion on whether the American presence in Syria could be marshalled to prevent the completion of the materially unimportant but symbolically crucial Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut highway, or land bridge, that would signify a regional victory for Iran.
The US-SDF alliance, which controls as much 20 or 25 per cent of Syrian territory, although sparsely populated, is a potential tool Washington has to influence the final political outcome in Syria. It is possible that with the arrival the new national security adviser John Bolton and eventual confirmation of the new Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, US policy will acquire more clarity and coherence.
By admitting that the raid’s intent was not “regime change”, the allies have reluctantly conceded the reality on the ground: Mr Al Assad is not going anywhere and is likely to reassert his total control over most of Syria, barring an unexpected development.
Paradoxically, other than the Russians and the Iranians, two actors have the potential to change the course of events. The first is Mr Al Assad himself. Were he to use chemical weapons again, the next attack might be debilitating to the regime itself.
The other – or others, to be more precise – are the regional players. Their strategy to date, which was crystallised in the early days of the Arab Spring, has not produced the desired results. It is time for a rethink; the human calamity that is Syria will not abate, especially as Mr Al Assad seeks to permanently rid himself of many of the refugees in neighbouring countries and beyond.
Henri Barkey is professor of international relations at Lehigh University in Pennsylvania and a senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations
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Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
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Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
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Price: From Dh590,000
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
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The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
What is the FNC?
The Federal National Council is one of five federal authorities established by the UAE constitution. It held its first session on December 2, 1972, a year to the day after Federation.
It has 40 members, eight of whom are women. The members represent the UAE population through each of the emirates. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have eight members each, Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah six, and Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain have four.
They bring Emirati issues to the council for debate and put those concerns to ministers summoned for questioning.
The FNC’s main functions include passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws, discussing international treaties and agreements, and offering recommendations on general subjects raised during sessions.
Federal draft laws must first pass through the FNC for recommendations when members can amend the laws to suit the needs of citizens. The draft laws are then forwarded to the Cabinet for consideration and approval.
Since 2006, half of the members have been elected by UAE citizens to serve four-year terms and the other half are appointed by the Ruler’s Courts of the seven emirates.
In the 2015 elections, 78 of the 252 candidates were women. Women also represented 48 per cent of all voters and 67 per cent of the voters were under the age of 40.
The biog
Name: Mariam Ketait
Emirate: Dubai
Hobbies: I enjoy travelling, experiencing new things, painting, reading, flying, and the French language
Favourite quote: "Be the change you wish to see" - unknown
Favourite activity: Connecting with different cultures
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
The years Ramadan fell in May
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
UK's plans to cut net migration
Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.
Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.
But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.
Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.
Rules will also be laid out for adult dependants, meaning they will have to demonstrate a basic understanding of the language.
The plans also call for stricter tests for colleges and universities offering places to foreign students and a reduction in the time graduates can remain in the UK after their studies from two years to 18 months.
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
PULITZER PRIZE 2020 WINNERS
JOURNALISM
Public Service
Anchorage Daily News in collaboration with ProPublica
Breaking News Reporting
Staff of The Courier-Journal, Louisville, Ky.
Investigative Reporting
Brian M. Rosenthal of The New York Times
Explanatory Reporting
Staff of The Washington Post
Local Reporting
Staff of The Baltimore Sun
National Reporting
T. Christian Miller, Megan Rose and Robert Faturechi of ProPublica
and
Dominic Gates, Steve Miletich, Mike Baker and Lewis Kamb of The Seattle Times
International Reporting
Staff of The New York Times
Feature Writing
Ben Taub of The New Yorker
Commentary
Nikole Hannah-Jones of The New York Times
Criticism
Christopher Knight of the Los Angeles Times
Editorial Writing
Jeffery Gerritt of the Palestine (Tx.) Herald-Press
Editorial Cartooning
Barry Blitt, contributor, The New Yorker
Breaking News Photography
Photography Staff of Reuters
Feature Photography
Channi Anand, Mukhtar Khan and Dar Yasin of the Associated Press
Audio Reporting
Staff of This American Life with Molly O’Toole of the Los Angeles Times and Emily Green, freelancer, Vice News for “The Out Crowd”
LETTERS AND DRAMA
Fiction
"The Nickel Boys" by Colson Whitehead (Doubleday)
Drama
"A Strange Loop" by Michael R. Jackson
History
"Sweet Taste of Liberty: A True Story of Slavery and Restitution in America" by W. Caleb McDaniel (Oxford University Press)
Biography
"Sontag: Her Life and Work" by Benjamin Moser (Ecco/HarperCollins)
Poetry
"The Tradition" by Jericho Brown (Copper Canyon Press)
General Nonfiction
"The Undying: Pain, Vulnerability, Mortality, Medicine, Art, Time, Dreams, Data, Exhaustion, Cancer, and Care" by Anne Boyer (Farrar, Straus and Giroux)
and
"The End of the Myth: From the Frontier to the Border Wall in the Mind of America" by Greg Grandin (Metropolitan Books)
Music
"The Central Park Five" by Anthony Davis, premiered by Long Beach Opera on June 15, 2019
Special Citation
Ida B. Wells
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Real Madrid 2 (Benzema 13', Kroos 28')
Barcelona 1 (Mingueza 60')
Red card: Casemiro (Real Madrid)
How has net migration to UK changed?
The figure was broadly flat immediately before the Covid-19 pandemic, standing at 216,000 in the year to June 2018 and 224,000 in the year to June 2019.
It then dropped to an estimated 111,000 in the year to June 2020 when restrictions introduced during the pandemic limited travel and movement.
The total rose to 254,000 in the year to June 2021, followed by steep jumps to 634,000 in the year to June 2022 and 906,000 in the year to June 2023.
The latest available figure of 728,000 for the 12 months to June 2024 suggests levels are starting to decrease.
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Manchester United 0
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