Pakistani soldiers stand next to the wreckage of an Indian fighter jet shot down in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. AFP
Pakistani soldiers stand next to the wreckage of an Indian fighter jet shot down in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. AFP

India-Pakistan tensions lay bare one of the major problems of conflict: wars can be started at any time but ending them takes far longer



Long before the actual displays of military power, a battle of narratives was playing out in TV studios and on social networks. In fact, it was almost immediately after the Pulwama attack of February 14, that the Indian media declared its own war on Pakistan.

The present crisis between these rival nations highlights two major issues that dominate popular discourse in South Asia: the internal political issue of India's Kashmir policy and the external security concerns of terrorism.

With India facing general elections in April and May this year, campaigning by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has invested more in the continued India-Pakistan stand-off and its impact on national security than it has on many issues of domestic governance.

The war of narratives that followed the suicide bombing by a local Kashmiri and claimed by Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), which killed 40 Indian soldiers in Indian-administered Kashmir, has led to growing public demand to teach a lesson to the “enemy” across the border. Initially, questions were raised about the BJP’s security policy and the failures of its intelligence. Then accusations came from the opposition parties, particularly the Congress. Mr Modi’s administration even came under fire from its own media and opposition.

Under growing public pressure for vengeance, the BJP put into action its election rhetoric of protecting the motherland. However, the claim of killing 300 or more in airstrikes on a JeM training camp inside Pakistan has made the things even more complicated for India. No proof has been provided by the Indian government. But perhaps the numbers are not really important – what appears to matter is demonstrating to the Indian public that, under Mr Modi, the nation has the ability and the will to strike Pakistan.

Against this backdrop, two clear positions emerged in the public conversation. One, that a good leader focuses on issues and executes carefully considered decisions that are made quietly within expert circles. The other is that the best way to handle problems is by loudly and publicly challenging the “enemy”. Mr Modi has chosen the latter.

One of the many problems of war is that it’s possible to start one at more or less any time. Finishing it, however, rapidly becomes far beyond anyone's control. History is full of conflicts that were only supposed to last for a few days or weeks, but have carried on for years.

After Pulwama, the ball was in India's court. It had the option to engage with Pakistan, while exerting diplomatic pressure for action against the alleged terrorist camps. But its incursion into Pakistan has altered the dynamics of this situation from the pursuit of a terrorist group to an attack on a sovereign state. Perhaps not realising the consequences of its actions, Mr Modi’s government has now set a precedent for the public to demand, by means of mass outcry, the punishment of any neighbouring state hostile to India. Worse still, that burden will have to be carried by every subsequent administration.

Now, instead of talking, two sovereign states are militarily engaged, while public discourse centres not on the dangers posed by extremist, non-state actors, but by those states themselves.

Since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, India's policy has been to invoke the global war on terror – which followed the events of September 11, 2001 – in order to take action against Pakistan's alleged harbouring of terrorist groups. Unlike in the past, however, the international community's reaction to recent tensions between India and Pakistan is less forceful and more diplomatic.

Mr Modi's handling of domestic politics through divisive anti-Muslim rhetoric and an aggressive stance towards Pakistan has resulted in alienating the Kashmiris. But it has also provided openings for extremist groups to attempt to justify violence against the Indian state. A combination of hyper-nationalism and religious zeal may help Mr Modi to secure votes, but it will also fuel extremism at home and elsewhere. Can India afford to take that risk? For a nation that aspired to become a global power, this shortsighted approach will certainly not help.

Mr Modi's high-handed policies towards Kashmir have only added fuel to this already raging fire. What was once limited to a few groups dissatisfied with New Delhi has now grown into a mass movement there. This will further weaken India's position as a secular democratic state. Five years of BJP rule has not served India’s international image well. The combination of use of force and religious nationalism will only widen the gap between the Kashmiris and the rest of India.

One of the most dangerous aspects of a war scenario between India and Pakistan is not the ways in which both countries will target each other militarily, but how they will deal with the public hysteria surrounding the conflict. The media culture of boasting about every move will lead to a frenzied environment, filled with voices urging politicians ever onwards and leaving less and less room for de-escalation.

The thinking heads in both countries should focus on the fact that, while chest-thumping may look and sound good to an impassioned public, it is difficult to dial back. Especially when an insatiable appetite for tough talking and decisive action has been created.

Given the strategic location of both nations and the global political climate, diplomatic engagement is the only responsible course of action and the only way to appear to like nations that can be trusted by the international community. This is certainly not the most politically attractive option and will be, to many, far less satisfying than talking about airstrikes and casualties on the ground. However, it is the best hope if war is to be avoided and can be clearly seen in Pakistan's stated commitment to the release of the Indian Air Force pilot Abhinandan Varthaman

The international community – and particularly, the United States – has historically played a crucial diplomatic role in efforts to avert full scale war between India and Pakistan. But is America ready to take on that responsibility today? While the US now has less leverage on Pakistan than it did during the 2001-02 stand-off, the Afghan peace talks still give it a foothold in South Asia.

So far, the crisis in the region has been met with calls for restraint by some nations, including the UK, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Clearly the time has come for these historically antagonistic nations to finally sort out their own problems with maturity and statesmanship.

Dr Arshi Saleem Hashmi is an Islamabad-based expert on peace and conflict in Pakistan

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Directed by Ashwiny Iyer Tiwari

Starring Kangana Ranaut, Richa Chadha, Jassie Gill, Yagya Bhasin, Neena Gupta

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Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021

Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.

The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.

These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.

“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.

“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.

“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.

“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”

Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.

There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.

“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.

“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.

“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”

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Director: Ali Abbas Zafar

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The 12 Syrian entities delisted by UK 

Ministry of Interior
Ministry of Defence
General Intelligence Directorate
Air Force Intelligence Agency
Political Security Directorate
Syrian National Security Bureau
Military Intelligence Directorate
Army Supply Bureau
General Organisation of Radio and TV
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

F1 2020 calendar

March 15 - Australia, Melbourne; March 22 - Bahrain, Sakhir; April 5 - Vietnam, Hanoi; April 19 - China, Shanghai; May 3 - Netherlands, Zandvoort; May 20 - Spain, Barcelona; May 24 - Monaco, Monaco; June 7 - Azerbaijan, Baku; June 14 - Canada, Montreal; June 28 - France, Le Castellet; July 5 - Austria, Spielberg; July 19 - Great Britain, Silverstone; August 2 - Hungary, Budapest; August 30 - Belgium, Spa; September 6 - Italy, Monza; September 20 - Singapore, Singapore; September 27 - Russia, Sochi; October 11 - Japan, Suzuka; October 25 - United States, Austin; November 1 - Mexico City, Mexico City; November 15 - Brazil, Sao Paulo; November 29 - Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi.

Test

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Star rating: 2/5

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Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km

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Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
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  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills