For the past half century, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee – better known as Aipac – largely held sway in elections in both US mainstream political parties. They threatened and intimidated those who opposed them and, when a critic of Israel was defeated, they boasted of victory, holding it up for others as a lesson.
Last week’s Democratic primary elections in New York City, in which three insurgent critics of Israeli policies defeated Aipac-endorsed candidates, point to what may be the end of an era for the pro-Israel lobby.
Aipac’s approach to politics and elections was smart. Formed by the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organisations, they were connected from the outset to an impressive national network of American Jewish leaders, activists and, more importantly, donors – all of whom they used effectively to influence members of Congress and Senators to embrace pro-Israel positions.
They didn’t just go to elected officials in Washington asking them to endorse particular pieces of legislation; they had local leaders in a congressperson’s district make the pitch. When new candidates were running, they’d have local representatives offer to help write their Middle East policy positions. Implicit in the visit and the offers were both the promise of support if the elected official or candidates did what was asked of them and the threat of opposition if they did not.
To back up their efforts, Aipac spawned a network of political action committees that would raise hundreds of thousands of dollars to distribute for or against candidates depending on their positions on Israel. Aipac claimed they didn’t co-ordinate the work of these Pacs (which would be a violation of election laws). But, as most of these Pacs were headed by Aipac board members or their families and their pattern of contributions were too obvious to have not been co-ordinated, the connections cannot be dismissed.
Aipac was also strategic in their operations. Not everyone benefited from their largesse. Chairs of important Congressional committees and very supportive members of Congress who faced tough re-elections received bundled contributions. When elected officials repeatedly stepped out of line, their opponents would be the beneficiaries of large amounts of Pac monies and bundled contributions from individual pro-Israel donors with ties to Aipac.
Overall, the amounts were not overwhelming but sufficient to send a message. Four decades ago, research done by the Arab American Institute found total amounts given by Aipac’s Pacs and their individual donors amounted to about $4 million in each election, with a handful of candidates receiving the bulk of this. When a few elected officials who’d been critical of Israel were defeated by opponents who’d been backed by Aipac, the lobby would crow about their victory, whether or not their support had been a factor. Their goal was to spread the message to other candidates: “Work with us, or you too can be defeated.”
With the end of federal regulations limiting the oversight of independent expenditures in election campaigns in 2010, Aipac and other pro-Israel groups took advantage by creating “super-Pacs” that could raise and spend tens of millions of dollars in each election. Instead of the cumbersome job of stealthily co-ordinating dozens of federally regulated Pacs limited in the amounts they could receive from individual donors and give to each candidate, these unregulated super-Pacs could receive seven-figure contributions from individuals and spend that same amount to help or hurt the candidates of their choosing.
In the 2022 and 2024 election cycles, they effectively targeted a handful of candidates who were critical of Israel and spent millions to defeat each of them.
-
Zohran Mamdani, the new Mayor of New York City, at an election night event at the Brooklyn Paramount Theatre. Bloomberg -
Mr Mamdani with his wife Rama Duwaji and parents Mahmood Mamdani and Mira Nair at his election night victory party. AFP -
Supporters in Brooklyn celebrate Mr Mamdani's victory. Reuters -
Democratic representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez speaks to media after Mr Mamdani's victory. Reuters -
Mr Mamdani and Ms Duwaji vote at The Frank Sinatra School of the Arts. AFP -
Independent candidate Andrew Cuomo at the Ziegfeld Ballroom in New York after conceding to Mr Mamdani. Bloomberg -
Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa concedes at his election-night watch party at Arte Cafe. AFP -
Zohran Mamdani campaigning in Brooklyn on Tuesday. Bloomberg
In the aftermath of Israel’s war in Gaza, there has been a dramatic collapse of support for Israel in US public opinion – especially among Democrats. In this new environment, Aipac can no longer pick and choose a few candidates to make examples. They now face new challenges weekly. More than a hundred US representatives and senators have supported stopping military assistance to Israel because of its violations of Palestinian rights. Dozens of candidates have charged Israel with genocide and hundreds of members of Congress and candidates have pledged that their campaigns will reject any support from Aipac.
In fact, Aipac has become so toxic in certain communities that they’ve been forced to create new entities or rely on alternates as repositories for the funds they raise to distribute to candidates.
Despite these adjustments, the hurdles being confronted by pro-Israel forces are proving to be too much. Israel’s behaviour continues to alienate more voters. The more money Aipac spends, the more toxic its brand has become – even when they win, they lose support for their heavy-handed tactics. Which brings us to last week’s New York primaries.
The defeat of two prominent pro-Israel members of Congress – by challengers who were critical of Israeli policies and supporters of justice for Palestinians – and the victory in an open race of a candidate who’d been a leader of pro-Palestinian campus protests in New York represent a turning point in US politics. It wasn’t just that Aipac and its allies spent millions in these failed efforts – these elections were upfront about Israeli policies and Palestinian rights.
What had been the hallmark of pro-Israel groups’ past involvement in campaigns was the lengths to which they’d go to not make support for Israel a public issue. They would raise money from their supporters based on Israel, but that would not be the topic of their expenditures. They would spend money on advertisements criticising a candidate’s age, their “radical agenda”, or some of their youthful improprieties. But they’d never mention that their involvement was because of the candidate’s position on Israel.
This was the case in these New York contests. Many issues were important to voters, especially frustration with the tired failed policies of the Democratic Party establishment. But they were also about Israel, and voters knew it.
The reactions from the pro-Israel side have been predictable. Some have accused the targeting of Aipac’s money and influence as unfair or even anti-Semitic – as if for decades Aipac hadn’t boasted of its money and influence as the source of its power. Others have claimed that as a result of this election, “Jews no longer feel safe in New York”, ignoring the fact that in the most prominent of the three contests in which a pro-Israel Jewish member of Congress was defeated, the victor was also Jewish and a self-proclaimed progressive Zionist who strongly opposed Israel’s war against Palestinians.
There’s also a bizarre effort to accuse pro-Palestinian candidates and voters of fracturing the Democratic Party when for decades Aipac did its best to fracture the party – and country – by forcing politicians to toe the line on a foreign issue or face defeat. Finally, there is the desperate effort to dismiss the entire election as being just about New York and having nothing to do with the rest of the US, ignoring the fact that the national political landscape has changed with these same types of contests taking place everywhere.
The bottom line is that after a half century, Aipac’s hold over politics has been weakened. It won’t go away anytime soon, but in this new era a real debate over US Middle East policy will take place. Thank you, New York voters.
