On the last day of 2025, the energy world is caught between ambition and reality. We are 25 years from net zero, yet still deeply reliant on oil. Even so, and despite lingering geopolitical tensions across key producing regions, oil prices have stayed comfortably below the $100-a-barrel mark. As we enter the new year, most analysts expect oil to remain well below even the $60/b mark. Even if prices rally, most expect no dramatic spikes, with Brent, the world’s main crude benchmark, likely to remain in a sweet spot in the $60s.
This may not be the best news for Middle Eastern crude producers whose economies and spending plans hinge on higher oil revenue. However, for billions of people around the world, lower oil prices mean cheaper travel, cheaper goods and a more affordable cost of living.
As the year ends, I take a look at the trends likely to shape oil prices and demand over the next 12 months.
Oil prices, or specifically benchmark Brent, are set for a muted start to the year, after posting their steepest annual decline since 2020, after the height of the Covid-19 lockdowns.
As my colleague Fareed Rahman writes, the oil market is moving into a phase of structural imbalance, with supply growth expected to run at around three times the pace of demand despite steady gains in consumption.
What does the demand outlook look like in 2026?
Global oil demand is expected to rise by about 900,000 barrels per day in 2025, taking total consumption to roughly 105.5 million bpd. A similar increase is forecast for 2026, with growth picking up further in 2027.
Where is the imbalance?
Supply is set to grow much faster than demand in 2025 and 2026, at roughly three times the pace. That expansion is being driven by higher output from both Opec+ and non-Opec producers.
What’s the impact on price?
Brent crude is likely to slip below $60/b in 2026, fall into the low $50s by Q4 and potentially end the year at even lower levels, according to Ahmad Assiri, a research strategist at Australia-based broker Pepperstone. UBS expects Brent to trade between $60 and $70 a barrel next year, with only brief excursions outside that range.
2025 has been a year of sanctions and captured oil tankers, whether they’re Russian, Iranian or Venezuelan. With so much embargoed oil in the sea, it is unsurprising that oil prices remain depressed. But with oil tankers floating with no specific destination in sight, does it imply a collapse in demand?
Kpler’s Amena Bakr writes that the build-up of crude at sea does not mean lower demand. She points to the persistent decline in product stocks, which shows people are still consuming even if unrefined crude still remains lost at sea.
Why is there oil on water?
Since early September, an additional 215 million barrels of crude have accumulated at sea, increasing oil-on-water volumes by about 19 per cent, according to analysts at Kpler. Total oil floating on the water is now around 1.3 billion barrels.
Is this a 2020 repeat?
Not quite. While the surplus is becoming more visible, it remains manageable. Unlike 2020, when storage ballooned as demand collapsed, today’s build-up is happening alongside healthy product demand and strong refining margins.
Could this surplus find buyers?
Yes. Pricing dynamics, including discounts on crude, particularly Russian Urals, are likely to encourage additional buying, particularly from major importers such as India and China.
Jargon buster
Inventory: While it could mean a number of things outside the energy world, traders use this word to describe stockpiles of crude oil and refined products such as gasoline and diesel.
Big number
$100 per barrel
Once the oil market’s north star, $100 crude last flashed on screens in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As the industry looks ahead to 2026, that price point is increasingly a relic of the oil age.
Our top energy reads
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The Dark Blue Winter Overcoat & Other Stories From the North
Edited and Introduced by Sjón and Ted Hodgkinson
Pushkin Press
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
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The years Ramadan fell in May
Under-21 European Championship Final
Germany 1 Spain 0
Weiser (40')
The specs: 2019 Audi A7 Sportback
Price, base: Dh315,000
Engine: 3.0-litre V6
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 335hp @ 5,000rpm
Torque: 500Nm @ 1,370rpm
Fuel economy 5.9L / 100km
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
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Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
The specs: 2018 Ford F-150
Price, base / as tested: Dh173,250 / Dh178,500
Engine: 5.0-litre V8
Power: 395hp @ 5,000rpm
Torque: 555Nm @ 2,750rpm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 12.4L / 100km
COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
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Kat Wightman's tips on how to create zones in large spaces
- Area carpets or rugs are the easiest way to segregate spaces while also unifying them.
- Lighting can help define areas. Try pendant lighting over dining tables, and side and floor lamps in living areas.
- Keep the colour palette the same in a room, but combine different tones and textures in different zone. A common accent colour dotted throughout the space brings it together.
- Don’t be afraid to use furniture to break up the space. For example, if you have a sofa placed in the middle of the room, a console unit behind it will give good punctuation.
- Use a considered collection of prints and artworks that work together to form a cohesive journey.
AIR
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Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
Duminy's Test career in numbers
Tests 46; Runs 2,103; Best 166; Average 32.85; 100s 6; 50s 8; Wickets 42; Best 4-47
The Birkin bag is made by Hermès.
It is named after actress and singer Jane Birkin
Noone from Hermès will go on record to say how much a new Birkin costs, how long one would have to wait to get one, and how many bags are actually made each year.
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