The oil markets have not had an easy start to 2026. Analysts had expected the worst of the geopolitical pressures to have been left behind in 2025. However, with the US capture of Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, and Washington’s takeover of the country’s oil assets, markets have entered uncharted territory.
It has been 23 years since the US last governed another oil-producing nation. The invasion of Iraq notably altered the trajectory of the country’s position in the global energy industry. Baghdad’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 was also a destabilising moment for global oil markets, triggering supply disruptions, volatility and a reshaping of energy geopolitics that reverberated well beyond the Gulf. At the time of writing, the US has negotiated a $2 billion sales agreement for Venezuela’s oil, within days of deposing the country’s President. The US has never moved as swiftly to monetise another country’s oil assets following an intervention. In Iraq, production recovery took years and was largely driven by the country’s own industry, following sustained damage from sanctions, war and subsequent instability.
Within Venezuela, opinions are divided. While some, as in Iraq, are celebrating the ousting of a controversial leader, many remain uncertain over the future of the country, which has the world’s largest reserves of oil. For a country long defined by its resources, the fate of those oil reserves may now shape not just its recovery, but its sovereignty.
What’s at stake for Venezuela?
Brief summary
- On January 3, the US took control of Venezuela’s oil assets following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro.
- Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves (300 billion barrels), which is equivalent to 17 per cent of the world’s total. Production, however, remains severely constrained
How much oil is Venezuela producing now?
- Current output: 800,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to Kpler
- This is down sharply from 2.4 million bpd in 2015 and more than 3 million bpd at its peak in the late 1990s
How high could production rise if sanctions are lifted?
Kpler estimates suggest output could reach 1.2 million bpd by end-2026 if sanctions are fully lifted. Venezuela would need to see the following happen over the next 12 months:
- Incremental output of 300,000-400,000 bpd within 12 months
- The potential restart of the Petrocedeno upgrader, which converts extra-heavy crude into lighter, export-ready grades
Venezuelan production is largely heavy Merey crude from the Orinoco Belt. Without upgrading, this crude is harder to transport and sell at scale. Restarting Petrocedeno would unlock stranded barrels already in the system. US Gulf Coast refineries are among the few globally equipped to handle Merey. This makes the US the most immediate and viable destination for increased Venezuelan exports.
What supports the initial rebound in Venezuelan output?
- Workovers in the Maracaibo Basin, a mature producing region.
- Operations are largely state-controlled, with US oil major Chevron operating via joint ventures with state-run PDVSA.
- Supply growth is expected to slow after the initial uplift.
- Gains beyond 2026 become progressively harder and more capital-intensive.
- A larger increase would require the restart of idle upgraders, including Petromonagas and Petro Roraima in the Orinoco heavy oil belt in Anzoategui state, eastern Venezuela.
- This would lift capacity to 1.7 million-1.8 million bpd with the addition of 800,000–900,000 bpd by 2028
- Rystad estimates $110 billion in upstream investment needed to lift production from 1 million bpd to 2 million bpd by 2030
What is the US’s role in monetising the oil?
- US President Donald Trump said he plans to meet US oil companies soon.
- The US could sell 30 to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude initially.
- Proceeds, estimated at $2 billion, would be managed under a US-led framework rather than by PDVSA alone.
What is the impact on oil prices?
- So far: limited impact
- The world is awash with oil and traders remain sceptical about how quickly Venezuelan barrels can return
- Other sanctioned barrels such as Iran Heavy and Russian Urals will replace Venezuelan heavy crude
- US Gulf coast refiners will absorb any incremental Venezuelan heavy crude
- If Venezuela becomes more competitive in the future, it will give tough competition to Iranian and Russian barrels
- Venezuela’s predicament also creates challenges within OPEC, of which it is a founding member
- The OPEC+ alliance is keeping output unchanged and already unwinding 1.65 million bpd of voluntary cuts.
Bottom line: Even with the world’s largest reserves, Venezuela’s near-term impact on oil markets is measured in hundreds of thousands of barrels, not in millions. The numbers suggest recovery will be gradual, not transformative, in 2026.
Jargon buster
Upgrader: A heavy oil upgrader transforms very thick, dense crude into lighter, more easily refined oil. Heavy crude is too viscous to flow through pipelines efficiently and is harder for refineries to process, An upgrader "cracks" and refines it into grades that can be sold on the global market. Venezuela has several upgraders that need to be revamped in order to become a reliable supplier in the global oil markets.
Big number
300 billion barrels
The size of Venezuela’s enormous oil reserves
Happening this week
- Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week: Jan 11-15
- Irena National Assembly: Jan 11-12
- World Future Energy Forum: Jan 13-15
Our top energy reads
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The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
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Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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RESULTS
6.30pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 Group One (PA) US$65,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner RB Money To Burn, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer).
7.05pm Handicap (TB) $175,000 (Turf) 1,200m
Winner Ekhtiyaar, Jim Crowley, Doug Watson.
7.40pm UAE 2000 Guineas Trial Conditions (TB) $100,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner Commanding, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
8.15pm Singspiel Stakes Group Two (TB) $250,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner Benbatl, Christophe Soumillon, Saeed bin Suroor.
8.50pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner Zakouski, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
9.25pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 Group Two (TB) $350,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner Kimbear, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
10pm Dubai Trophy Conditions (TB) $100,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner Platinum Star, Christophe Soumillon, Saeed bin Suroor.
10.35pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner Key Victory, James Doyle, Charlie Appleby.
Get Out
Director: Jordan Peele
Stars: Daniel Kaluuya, Allison Williams, Catherine Keener, Bradley Whitford
Four stars
UAE%20FIXTURES
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Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
DMZ facts
- The DMZ was created as a buffer after the 1950-53 Korean War.
- It runs 248 kilometers across the Korean Peninsula and is 4km wide.
- The zone is jointly overseen by the US-led United Nations Command and North Korea.
- It is littered with an estimated 2 million mines, tank traps, razor wire fences and guard posts.
- Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un met at a building in Panmunjom, where an armistice was signed to stop the Korean War.
- Panmunjom is 52km north of the Korean capital Seoul and 147km south of Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital.
- Former US president Bill Clinton visited Panmunjom in 1993, while Ronald Reagan visited the DMZ in 1983, George W. Bush in 2002 and Barack Obama visited a nearby military camp in 2012.
- Mr Trump planned to visit in November 2017, but heavy fog that prevented his helicopter from landing.
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Profile of VoucherSkout
Date of launch: November 2016
Founder: David Tobias
Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers
Sector: Technology
Size: 18 employees
Stage: Embarking on a Series A round to raise $5 million in the first quarter of 2019 with a 20 per cent stake
Investors: Seed round was self-funded with “millions of dollars”
Full list of brands available for Instagram Checkout
Adidas @adidaswomen
Anastasia Beverly Hills @anastasiabeverlyhills
Balmain @balmain
Burberry @burberry
ColourPop @colourpopcosmetics
Dior @dior
H&M @hm
Huda Beauty @hudabeautyshop
KKW @kkwbeauty
Kylie Cosmetics @kyliecosmetics
MAC Cosmetics @maccosmetics
Michael Kors @michaelkors
NARS @narsissist
Nike @niketraining & @nikewomen
NYX Cosmetics @nyxcosmetics
Oscar de la Renta @oscardelarenta
Ouai Hair @theouai
Outdoor Voices @outdoorvoices
Prada @prada
Revolve @revolve
Uniqlo @uniqlo
Warby Parker @warbyparker
Zara @zara
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
Where to donate in the UAE
The Emirates Charity Portal
You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.
The General Authority of Islamic Affairs & Endowments
The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.
Al Noor Special Needs Centre
You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.
Beit Al Khair Society
Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.
Dar Al Ber Society
Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.
Dubai Cares
Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.
Emirates Airline Foundation
Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.
Emirates Red Crescent
On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.
Gulf for Good
Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.
Noor Dubai Foundation
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).
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Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Company%20Profile
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