Ankara is stepping up its diplomatic efforts to counter Israel's dominance and Iranian influence in Lebanon, experts say, as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam met in Istanbul on Friday.
After the meeting, also attended by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Mr Erdogan praised its "brotherly country Lebanon”, as quoted by the Turkish Communications Directorate.
In a statement on X, Mr Salam stressed the importance of Lebanese-Turkish relations and the need to elevate them to “the level of a strategic partnership”.
Karim Bitar, a political analyst and lecturer in Middle East studies at Sciences Po Paris, told The National it was “definitely clear” that Turkey did not want Lebanon to shift “from the Iranian sphere of influence to an Israeli sphere of influence”.
Lebanon has engaged in unprecedented direct talks with Israel, brokered by Washington, aimed at paving the way for a peace agreement that many see as a first step towards the once-taboo prospect of normalisation.
Lebanon's leadership has repeatedly stressed the need to restore the country's sovereignty, with President Joseph Aoun issuing unusually strong criticism of Iran's influence over Lebanon's domestic affairs. Hezbollah and Iran have condemned the direct talks and are not parties to them.
With the relative weakening of the Iranian axis in Lebanon, where Hezbollah nevertheless remains influential despite suffering significant losses in Israeli attacks, regional mediators have stepped up their engagement to preserve a balance of power amid growing US and Israeli influence, Mr Bitar said.
“So far, we cannot speak of a formal security axis, but we are seeing increasing co-ordination among an emerging coalition of states, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and potentially Qatar and Oman, all seeking to preserve stability in the Middle East,” he said.
Lebanese leaders have insisted that the direct talks must lead to Israel's complete withdrawal from Lebanon, where Israeli troops occupy roughly 7 per cent of the country's territory.
The visit is important, Mr Bitar said.
“Lebanon definitely needs leverage at a time when it is caught between the Israeli hammer and the Iranian anvil, so that it does not find itself alone with Israel and the United States, which is definitely not an honest broker.”
Mr Erdogan also promised to provide “every possible support”, including humanitarian assistance, to help establish security, peace and stability in Lebanon.
Lebanon was dragged into the regional war when Iran-backed Hezbollah launched rockets at Israel on March 2. Israel's disproportionate retaliation has left Lebanon reeling, killing more than 4,300, displacing over one million people, and razing villages across southern Lebanon.
Syria-Lebanon 'brotherhood'
In June, ahead of the Nato summit in Ankara, Mr Erdogan had already signalled the need for stronger regional alliances, stressing that Turkey's security is not confined to its own borders but extends to “Aleppo, Damascus and Beirut”. Syria and Lebanon are part of Turkey's “geography of affection and brotherhood”, he added.
During the Friday meeting in Istanbul, Mr Erdogan and Mr Salam discussed regional developments, with the Turkish president repeating that it would be “beneficial” for the wider region if Lebanon and Syria developed “good-neighbourly relations”.
Since the fall of the Assad regime, Turkey has wielded considerable political and economic influence over Syria's new leadership, owing to its close ties with the rebel factions that toppled the government and ultimately stamped their authority on Syria's state.
“Today, Turkey is a key regional stakeholder because Erdogan has a major influence on the Syrian president Ahmad Al Shara,” Mr Bitar said.
“This is where Turkey can play a role to try to prevent Ahmad Al Shara from falling into the trap of listening to Trump's advice and entering Lebanon,” he added.
US President Donald Trump has urged Syrian troops to intervene in Lebanon to help disarm Hezbollah - an idea that triggered a widespread backlash and was rejected by the Syrian authorities.
Mr Bitar cautioned that, unlike in Syria, Turkey's influence in Lebanon is likely to remain limited, given the presence of other powerful actors, including France and the Gulf states, and the country's own sectarian divisions.
While Turkey is trying to stage “a comeback” by offering humanitarian assistance, supporting reconstruction projects in Akkar and Tripoli, and cultivating ties with segments of Lebanon's Sunni community, it “has never become a decisive political or military actor in Lebanon”.
“Turkey's room for manoeuvre is likely to increase, but I do not think that it will become a dominant, a new dominant external player,” he said.
“I think that Turkey's objective is less to replace Iran than to strengthen its position as one of the key architects of this new emerging regional order.”
