Egypt is prepared to work with African allies to help secure Ethiopia access to the Red Sea if Addis Ababa shows flexibility in its water dispute, sources in Cairo briefed on private deliberations told The National.
The proposal was delivered to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed last week, according to the sources. It has also been sent to Washington, where US President Donald Trump has declared his intention to mediate in the decade-old dispute over Egypt's vital share of the Nile's water after Ethiopia built a dam on the river's main tributary – the Blue Nile.
The offer contains an implicit warning that Egypt would use its significant political and military leverage in Sudan, Somalia and Djibouti, as well as its heavy naval presence in the southern Red Sea, to block Addis Ababa's access to seaports in those nations if its offer is rejected.
There was no immediate comment available from Addis Ababa or Cairo on the Egyptian offer, but Mr Ahmed emphasised in a joint news conference during a recent visit by the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan his country's desperate need for access to the Red Sea.
“The sustainability of our growth cannot be ensured if a nation of over 130 million continues to be denied access to the sea and remains a geographic prisoner. Such reality runs counter to prevailing global practices and contemporary economic trends,” he said.
“Ethiopia and Turkey held extensive discussions on how friendly nations like Turkey can play a constructive role in supporting Ethiopia's quest to obtain sea access through peaceful and mutually beneficial means.”
The Egyptian offer comes at a time when Ankara and Cairo are rapidly cementing relations in an alliance that is already impacting Sudan, where the pair support the Sudanese Armed Forces in its war against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.
They have also resolved disagreements on Libya, where they had for years supported rival factions. Both nations also maintain close relations with Somalia, which is at odds with its neighbour Ethiopia.
Egypt, which has been focusing its African policy on drawing closer to Ethiopia's neighbours with joint military pacts and technical aid, maintains close relations with Eritrea.
Relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara have been fraught with tension, with Ethiopia accusing Eritrea of occupying Ethiopian territory. The two neighbours fought each other in a full-fledged war over a border dispute between 1998 and 2000.
A nation of 108 million and one of the world's driest, Egypt sees the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam as an “existential threat” to its very survival. It has for years sought, but to no avail, to persuade Addis Ababa to enter a legally binding deal on the operation of the Gerd to ensure a fair distribution of water at times of prolonged drought.
Egypt depends on the Nile for almost all its fresh water needs. A reduction in its share of the Nile water would wipe out millions of jobs in agriculture, upsetting its food balance and threatening unrest.
The Egyptian offer of a secure sea access for Ethiopia, according to the sources, is linked to revelations last year that Cairo reached agreements to develop ports and associated roads in Djibouti and neighbouring Eritrea to increase pressure on Addis Ababa in future negotiations over the hydroelectric dam.
Under those agreements, Egypt is upgrading Djibouti's port of Doraleh on the Gulf of Aden and Eritrea's strategic Red Sea port of Assab to increase their capacity, including berths for warships, and the scope to post small but elite military contingents, sources in Cairo told The National at the time.
Both Assab and Doraleh lie near the Bab Al Mandeb strait, which is the southern gate to the Red Sea. Ethiopia, landlocked since Eritrea seceded in 1993 after a long civil war, relies heavily on Doraleh for trade.
Egypt, according to the sources, is planning to jointly develop Sudan's main commercial port – Port Sudan, on the Red Sea.
Egypt, which has more than 2,000km of Red Sea coastline, has long insisted that the Red Sea must exclusively belong to littoral states; and those who are not cannot have permanent presence on the strategic waterway that links Europe, the Middle East, Asia and East Africa.
Together with Somalia and Turkey, Egypt has vehemently opposed an agreement in principle reached in 2024 between Ethiopia and the breakaway region of Somaliland to allow Addis Ababa 20km of coastline to turn into a naval base.
Similarly, the three nations have strongly condemned Israel's recognition of Somaliland – the first by any nation – in December, seeing the move as an Israeli attempt to secure a foothold on the Red Sea coastline.
