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A renewed effort by mediators the US, Qatar and Egypt to broker a Gaza ceasefire is stalling over stringent Israeli conditions and Hamas's reluctance to risk weakening its bargaining power by releasing too many hostages too quickly, sources told The National on Sunday.
They spoke following a flurry of diplomatic activity in the Middle East by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and White House senior adviser Brett McGurk. Of the three, Mr McGurk remains in the region to try to bridge the gap between Hamas and Israel.
The intensified effort by the US, Egypt and Qatar comes as President Joe Biden's time in the White House is drawing to a close, with president-elect Donald Trump taking office next month. Mr Trump has spoken of “hell to pay” if the hostages held by Hamas are not freed before his inauguration.
Mr Sullivan has, over the weekend, expressed cautious optimism that conditions were ripe for halting the 14-month-old Gaza war before the Biden administration's end on January 20.
“I wouldn’t be here now if I didn’t think this thing was just waiting until after January 20,” said Mr Sullivan, who returned to Washington on Saturday.
The US, Qatar and Egypt have for a year now been trying to reach a ceasefire deal in Gaza along with a swap of Israeli and other hostages held by Hamas for Palestinians detained in Israel on security-related charges. The only truce they successfully brokered lasted one week in November 2023 and led to the release by Hamas of about 100 hostages.
The sources said Israel was insisting now that Hamas releases many more hostages than the group is offering during the initial truce provided for in the latest proposals. It also wants them to include US citizens and female soldiers. Hamas, according to the sources, is prepared to free about a dozen, with their release staggered at the rate of one every 48 hours to ensure Israel is honouring its end of the deal.
Another new condition set by Israel is that it wants all Palestinians freed from its prisons under the deal to leave Palestinian territories and live in exile abroad, they said. It has also attached a new condition to its offer of safe passage from Gaza and into exile of Hamas leaders, field commanders and their families. Israel, said the sources, now wants to retain the final say on who qualifies to benefit from the offer, which Hamas has previously rejected.
The proposals currently under discussion provide for a brief truce during which a limited exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners would take place along with the dispatch of humanitarian assistance into Gaza, where the war has killed nearly 45,000 and injured twice that number, according to Gaza government figures.
They also provide for a gradual withdrawal from a narrow strip of land that runs the length of Egypt's border with Gaza on the Palestinian side, including the Rafah crossing, the territory's only gate to the outside world that is not controlled by Israel.
Israel captured the area in May, drawing an angry response from Egypt, which insists that the move broke the two countries' 1979 peace treaty and subsequent accords. Egypt also closed its side of the Rafah border to protest against Israel's move, significantly reducing the amount of relief aid sent to Gaza.
The sources said Egypt was currently trying to persuade Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to issue a decree creating an independent committee of non-partisan technocrats to run the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing, but its pleas were falling on deaf ears.
Egypt this month brokered an agreement in principle between Hamas and Fatah, the dominant faction in Mr Abbas' Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, to create the committee, but a senior Hamas leader later rejected the deal, saying the proposed committee would enshrine divisions among Palestinians.
Israel itself has been ambivalent about the creation of the committee while insisting on retaining the right to send its military back to the area after its withdrawal to deal with possible threats to its security, said the sources.
Israel argues that the Egypt border must be closely monitored to halt the supply of weapons and dual use material to Hamas through underground tunnels. Egypt denies the existence of such tunnels, insisting it destroyed them about 10 years ago.
