Nuclear energy has been earmarked for a bigger role in helping some countries reach net-zero emissions by the middle of this century, especially in the Middle East. Proponents believe energy generated from splitting atoms using fission is critical for advancing climate goals. The Paris Agreement, which underpins the 2050 net-zero target, aims to limit global warming to below 2°C and ideally contain it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Nuclear fission, which involves no heat-trapping emissions, could replace the burning of fossil fuels to generate electricity. At Cop28, which took place in the UAE, 25 countries led by the host nation signed a declaration to treble nuclear energy capacity by 2050. More have joined since. Under such an increase in nuclear capacity, global atomic energy capacity could reach 1,200 gigawatts by 2050 from a baseline of 393GW assessed in 2020, the World Nuclear Association (WNA) estimates.
Europe's great nuclear unwind
Despite these targets, nuclear capacity has been declining in recent years. Fewer atomic reactors are being built and many, particularly in Europe, are being decommissioned.
Countries such as France and Germany used atomic energy to power a significant portion of their grids. France still generates 70 per cent of its power from nuclear energy, while Germany has phased it out entirely. At its peak, nuclear energy accounted for 30 per cent of the German power grid. However, the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan, caused by a tsunami that scuppered reactor cooling systems at the plant and led to core meltdowns, forced the evacuation of about 150,000 nearby residents and reignited global alarm over nuclear safety.
As seen in the chart, nuclear-generated electricity dipped sharply after the catastrophe at Fukushima. Atomic power now accounts for only 9 per cent of electricity generation compared to 16.63 per cent at the start of the millennium. Germany has no active nuclear power stations and has added coal-powered electricity to meet grid shortages caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Since Fukushima, several steps have been taken to ease public anxiety over nuclear safety and strengthen regulations around reactor operations. Upgrades on coping with extreme events and prolonged loss of power or cooling have been reinforced at nuclear power plants around the world, the WNA says. In 2011 and 2012, “stress tests” were conducted in Europe to reassess safety margins against earthquakes and flooding, loss of key safety functions and severe-accident management. In the US, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) ordered immediate enhancements in March 2012, at a cost of about $100 million, across the country.
Atomic power in the Middle East
While stricter safeguards have struggled to restore public confidence in parts of Europe, nuclear adoption in the Middle East is gathering pace. The UAE, which until recently met around 90 per cent of power needs from gas, now generates up to 23 per cent from nuclear.
The addition of 5.6GW of power from the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant has been a game-changer for the country and is considered critical to the UAE’s plans to generate cleaner energy and ditch fossil fuels by 2050.
The UAE Consensus agreed at Cop28 was explicit: the world must transition from using fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner. The inclusion of that language was hard fought. However, momentum towards energy transition has slowed, particularly after the US left the Paris Agreement for the second time last month.
Regional nuclear renaissance?
The UAE’s nuclear story took many years to unfold and Saudi Arabia also plans to add up to 16GW of nuclear energy to decarbonise its economy. Iran’s nuclear energy programme, which it says is peaceful, remains a flashpoint in regional geopolitics.
In light of all this, can the world and region add more nuclear energy? In a recent report, the UAE’s nuclear regulator said it had structures in place and was ready to increase capacity. The Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation said if it received a mandate to add more reactors to keep up with artificial intelligence and the data-centre boom, it would start a tender process.
While Europe still wrangles with nuclear life extensions and decommissioning schedules, there could be a new boom in atomic power in the Middle East.
If current trajectories hold, more new nuclear capacity will be added in the Middle East over the coming decades than in Europe, in a reversal of recent history. The centre of gravity in nuclear energy is moving and with it, the geopolitics of the clean power transition.
