'This was the safest place in Lebanon': A tense Christian town empties


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“Since the war of 2006, this was the safest place in Lebanon, the quietest place in Lebanon,” says Imad Lallous, the mayor of Ain Ebel, referring to his village in southern Lebanon, only a few kilometres away from the Israeli border.

But he isn't just referring to the security situation; Mr Lallous also refers to a unique set of circumstances that have led to a very low crime rate, which he attributes to the presence of three security bodies in the area – the Lebanese Army, the UN peacekeeping mission (Unifil) and Iran-backed Shiite armed group Hezbollah.

Ain Ebel stands in contrast to much of southern Lebanon, which has a strong Shiite majority and is one of Hezbollah's main power bases. The residents of the town are largely Christian and supportive of Hezbollah's largest political rival, the Lebanese Forces.

But conflict has returned to the region once again as Hezbollah and Israel have traded blows across the border, with multiple casualties on each side. The sound of cross-border shelling was intense and frequent when The National met with Mr Lallous. Saturday was the deadliest day yet for Hezbollah when it lost six fighters.

He described the atmosphere in the town as very tense, with 60 per cent of inhabitants – mainly women and children – having left for the capital Beirut.

In contrast to 2006 – when Israel and Hezbollah last fought a full-scale war – the Iran-backed group does not currently have any positions in the vicinity of Ain Ebel, meaning the town has largely been spared thus far since the last two weeks of fighting.

“It was normal,” Mr Lallous says when he asked about previous relations with Hezbollah. “As president of the municipality I used to speak to them, we used to sit down and talk [about] the problems of the of the area.

“This was going in a very good way, until the kidnapping and killing of Mr Hasrouni … the situation was a little bit disturbed.”

Elias Hasrouni, 72, a co-ordinator for the LF in the Bint Jbeil region and a resident of Ain Ebel, disappeared and died in mysterious circumstances two months ago.

Initially it was believed he died in a car accident, but the LF would later accuse Hezbollah of involvement in his alleged assassination.

“Most of the people here in the village, they believe he was killed because he was opposing them, he was from the Lebanese Forces,” said Mr Lallous, who has been the head of the municipality since 2016.

“But we still don't know exactly why he was killed and we don't know who did it. We never said directly that this party killed him or that party killed him.”

Full-scale war

Mr Lallous insists that the municipal council itself was not elected on a political basis or party affiliation, and came through agreement from the families of Ain Ebel, which has a population of around 4,000 in the summer and 1,500 in the winter.

Hezbollah largely acts autonomously. While it might be increasing its rhetoric over a future full-scale war with Israel, much of Lebanon does not want it to be dragged into a conflict.

Fears are particularly heightened since the country is engulfed in an economic crisis, and international aid it received in 2006 to help rebuild the country might not be guaranteed in a new war.

When that brutal, month-long war took place, large built up areas across Lebanon – but particularly in Hezbollah's powerhouses, mainly in the south of the country – were levelled. More than a thousand people died and the reconstruction was costly, and lengthy.

“I believe three-quarters of the Lebanese population don't want Hezbollah to get involved in the war now. I'm sure of that. A big majority of the Shiite people don't want to get involved in the war. But what can they do? said Mr Lallous.

“If you go to Bint Jbeil, it's a big city … people have fled their houses,” Mr Lallous said, referring to one of the largest towns in the region, a key site of fighting in 2006.

“In 2006, Bint Jbeil was completely destroyed. It was rebuilt by Saudi and Qatari money. Now who is going to help? Nobody is going to spend one penny.”

Skewed figures

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

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The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Updated: October 22, 2023, 11:07 AM