Five years on, Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 on path to free the kingdom from oil dependency


Mina Aldroubi
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Five years ago Saudi Arabia unveiled its Vision 2030 reform plan, a package of economic and social policies designed to free the kingdom from dependence on oil exports.

The reforms are part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's programme to attract foreign investment, wean the economy off hydrocarbons, strengthen the private sector and create sustainable jobs for Saudis.

The programme also aims to increase Saudi women's participation in the workforce to 30 per cent.

Prince Mohammed is expected to give a televised interview on Tuesday to mark five years since the programme was announced and talk about the remaining nine years of development.

Mega projects

Perhaps the most well-known part of the Vision 2030 strategy are glitzy megaprojects including Neom, a $500bn futuristic city and a mega entertainment and sports project, named Qiddiya, in Riyadh.

The projects will lead Saudi's efforts to encourage tourism as it attempts to move away from oil as its primary source of income. In late 2019, the government announced that tourist visas are now available for holidaymakers. A modest dress code is set for visitors, ending the requirement that women must wear the abaya.

Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced a new tourism master plan for Al Ula in the country's north-west earlier this year.

It is an area of archaeological significance that will be a major hub for the kingdom’s tourism sector.

The plan aims to turn Al Ula into a global destination for travellers offering heritage, nature, art and culture.

Two million visitors every year to the historic region are expected to visit the historic site.

Improving life for Saudi Arabia's citizens and residents 

But it isn't all big buildings and projecting the environment. Vision 2030 also includes wide societal reforms, most notably on women's place in the kingdom.

The government lifted a ban on women driving in June 2018. Since then, a swathe of changes are encouraging women to take a more prominent role in society. Women no longer have to obtain permission from a male guardian to work, enrol for university or undergo surgery.

Saudi women at a factory in Sudair Industrial City. Modon
Saudi women at a factory in Sudair Industrial City. Modon

Women now also have the right to register child birth, marriage or divorce by themselves and to be issued official family documents and serve as guardians to minors.

The former system required women to seek permission from their male guardian – usually their father or husband, but sometimes a brother or son, to marry, apply for a passport and leave the country.

The government also curbed the powers of religious police that had patrolled public spaces to impose strict rules on women’s dress and enforce bans on alcohol, music, prayer-time closures and the mixing of men and women.

Government launched the Citizen’s Account, a cash handout for low- and middle-income Saudis to offset austerity measures in 2017.

Later that year, a 35-year prohibition on cinemas was lifted. The country plans to open more than 300 movie theatres by 2030.

In early 2019, a royal decree was announced that allowed music to be played in restaurants as public entertainment flourished around the kingdom and the ban on gender-mixing eases.

Diversifying from oil

Since 2016, the government has invested vast sums and effort into reforming the country’s private sector.

This was seen through the development of the banking system, digitisation of government services and development of macroeconomic management and fiscal stabilisation.

The government is pushing for foreign firms to invest and set up regional headquarters in the capital, Riyadh.

Shortly after the announcement of Vision 2030 in 2016, new labour regulations were announced that restricted certain jobs to citizens and raised quotas for companies to hire Saudi nationals.

In 2018, a five per cent value-added tax (VAT) was imposed to improve non-oil revenue generation.

Foreign investors are granted full access to NOMU, a parallel market for small- and medium-sized enterprises.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Syria v Australia
2018 World Cup qualifying: Asia fourth round play-off first leg
Venue: Hang Jebat Stadium (Malacca, Malayisa)
Kick-off: Thursday, 4.30pm (UAE)
Watch: beIN Sports HD

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Co-founders: Vidyuth Srinivasan, co-founder/chief executive, Ashlesh Sharma, co-founder/chief technology officer, Lakshmi Subramanian, co-founder/chief scientist

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Sector/About: Entrupy is a hardware-enabled SaaS company whose mission is to protect businesses, borders and consumers from transactions involving counterfeit goods.  

Initial investment/Investors: Entrupy secured a $2.6m Series A funding round in 2017. The round was led by Tokyo-based Digital Garage and Daiwa Securities Group's jointly established venture arm, DG Lab Fund I Investment Limited Partnership, along with Zach Coelius. 

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