Iran's confrontation with the West has been a worthy headline-grabber for months, but it is mundane economic realities that will set the tone for oil markets in the months ahead.
Market concerns about the loss of Iranian oil exports because of sanctions and the potential for a Gulf-wide conflict that would hit exports from the region's major producers became the standard explanation for rising oil prices in the first quarter of the year. Increased tensions have fed a political risk premium that has tended to drown out more sober assessments of the shape of the oil market heading into the season when demand rises thanks to the summer holidays in the United States, when more Americans get behind the wheel.
No one can sensibly predict the endgame in Iran's standoff with the West over the country's nuclear programme, but there are good reasons to look through the fog of Iran's political risk premium as weak oil market fundamentals increase the risk of a significant move lower for oil. Fresh evidence is emerging that oil prices above US$120 a barrel undermine prospects for a sustainable economic recovery in Western Europe and the US; that they are encouraging investment in a new wall of oil supply outside Opec; and, crucially, are likely to increase risks to economic growth and therefore oil demand from the developing countries outside the Gulf.
The disconnection between Brent futures - widely used as a global hedge against supply disruption - and weakening prices for spot crude oil point to a market on the cusp of a slide. Even as Brent futures have tested three-year highs in recent weeks, trading in Russian crude oil in the Mediterranean has hit year lows, and North Sea crudes are also off their peaks.
A well-flagged initiative by the US, likely to be backed by the United Kingdom and France, to deploy oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve will also help to keep any fresh price rallies in check. While a release of oil from storage tanks is unlikely to win the support of the International Energy Agency and its other member countries, the US has made it clear it is ready and willing to pull the trigger on releasing back-up barrels if prices remain high.
Early evidence on the impact of new US and European sanctions against Iran suggests that Iran's oil exports have dipped by 250,000 barrels per day (bpd). Some Wall Street analysts believe that number may rise as high as 1 million bpd over the next few months. But those familiar with Iran's oil marketing point to the National Iranian Oil Company's readiness under pressure to sweeten credit terms and establish new intermediaries and financial settlement arrangements that will over time limit the impact of the sanctions.
Recent reassurances from Saudi Arabia - the largest global oil exporter - on oil supply indicate a fresh determination to drive the froth out of the oil price. The kingdom's commitment to meeting any additional call on its crude has been underlined by senior officials on multiple occasions and should not be doubted. But it is Saudi Arabia's view that Asian markets are softening that is most telling.
China, the world's fastest-growing major oil consumer, is grappling with slowing economic growth, most recently reflected by slowing imports, even though data suggests that oil imports are holding close to record highs. Whether this is driven by consumption or strategic stock-buying is difficult to discern, but the risk is that any tangible reduction in Iranian-related risks will diminish strategic buying.
Finally, high oil prices are encouraging investment in new oil developments, particularly in the US and Canada, where insufficient export routes are now the main constraint to higher oil production. With rising oil supply from countries outside Opec set to push its way into the market in the next five years, even explosive headlines on Iran may struggle to keep oil prices near present highs.
Bill Farren-Price is the founder and chief executive of Petroleum Policy Intelligence, a consultancy
Brahmastra: Part One - Shiva
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Ranbir Kapoor, Alia Bhatt and Amitabh Bachchan
Rating: 2/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: SmartCrowd
Started: 2018
Founder: Siddiq Farid and Musfique Ahmed
Based: Dubai
Sector: FinTech / PropTech
Initial investment: $650,000
Current number of staff: 35
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Various institutional investors and notable angel investors (500 MENA, Shurooq, Mada, Seedstar, Tricap)
The Transfiguration
Director: Michael O’Shea
Starring: Eric Ruffin, Chloe Levine
Three stars
The End of Loneliness
Benedict Wells
Translated from the German by Charlotte Collins
Sceptre
How Beautiful this world is!
TECH SPECS: APPLE WATCH SE (second generation)
Display: 40mm, 324 x 394; 44mm, 368 x 448; Retina LTPO OLED, up to 1000 nits; Ion-X glass
Processor: Apple S8, W3 wireless
Capacity: 32GB
Memory: 1GB
Platform: watchOS 9
Health metrics: 2nd-gen heart rate sensor, workouts, fall/crash detection; emergency SOS, international emergency calling
Connectivity: GPS/GPS + cellular; Wi-Fi, LTE, Bluetooth 5.3, NFC (Apple Pay)
Durability: Water resistant up to 50m
Battery: 269mAh Li-ion, up to 18h, wireless charging
Cards: eSIM
Finishes: Aluminium; midnight, silver, starlight
In the box: Watch SE, magnetic-to-USB-C charging cable, band/loop
Price: Starts at Dh999 (40mm) / 1,119 (44mm)
A general guide to how active you are:
Less than 5,000 steps - sedentary
5,000 - 9,999 steps - lightly active
10,000 - 12,500 steps - active
12,500+ - highly active
Key products and UAE prices
iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available.
Price: Dh4,229
iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus.
Price: Dh4,649
iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel.
Price: Dh3,179
Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.
Super heroes
Iron Man
Reduced risk of dementia
Alcohol consumption could be an issue
Hulk
Cardiac disease, stroke and dementia from high heart rate
Spider-Man
Agility reduces risk of falls
Increased risk of obesity and mental health issues
Black Panther
Vegetarian diet reduces obesity
Unknown risks of potion drinking
Black Widow
Childhood traumas increase risk of mental illnesses
Thor
He's a god
Profile
Company: Justmop.com
Date started: December 2015
Founders: Kerem Kuyucu and Cagatay Ozcan
Sector: Technology and home services
Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai
Size: 55 employees and 100,000 cleaning requests a month
Funding: The company’s investors include Collective Spark, Faith Capital Holding, Oak Capital, VentureFriends, and 500 Startups.
Company Profile
Company name: Hoopla
Date started: March 2023
Founder: Jacqueline Perrottet
Based: Dubai
Number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Investment required: $500,000
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
Confirmed bouts (more to be added)
Cory Sandhagen v Umar Nurmagomedov
Nick Diaz v Vicente Luque
Michael Chiesa v Tony Ferguson
Deiveson Figueiredo v Marlon Vera
Mackenzie Dern v Loopy Godinez
Tickets for the August 3 Fight Night, held in partnership with the Department of Culture and Tourism Abu Dhabi, went on sale earlier this month, through www.etihadarena.ae and www.ticketmaster.ae.
Specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo 4-cylinder / 2.0 turbo 4-cylinder (S3)
Power: 148bhp / 328bhp (S3)
Torque: 250Nm / 420Nm (S3)
On sale: December
Price: TBA
UAE SQUAD
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Mohamed Usman (vice captain), Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Imran Haider, Tahir Mughal, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed, Fahad Nawaz, Abdul Shakoor, Sultan Ahmed, CP Rizwan
Family reunited
Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe was born and raised in Tehran and studied English literature before working as a translator in the relief effort for the Japanese International Co-operation Agency in 2003.+
She moved to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies before moving to the World Health Organisation as a communications officer.
She came to the UK in 2007 after securing a scholarship at London Metropolitan University to study a master's in communication management and met her future husband through mutual friends a month later.
The couple were married in August 2009 in Winchester and their daughter was born in June 2014.
She was held in her native country a year later.+
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Etihad (etihad.com) flies from Abu Dhabi to Mykonos, with a flight change to its partner airline Olympic Air in Athens. Return flights cost from Dh4,105 per person, including taxes.
Where to stay
The modern-art-filled Ambassador hotel (myconianambassador.gr) is 15 minutes outside Mykonos Town on a hillside 500 metres from the Platis Gialos Beach, with a bus into town every 30 minutes (a taxi costs €15 [Dh66]). The Nammos and Scorpios beach clubs are a 10- to 20-minute walk (or water-taxi ride) away. All 70 rooms have a large balcony, many with a Jacuzzi, and of the 15 suites, five have a plunge pool. There’s also a private eight-bedroom villa. Double rooms cost from €240 (Dh1,063) including breakfast, out of season, and from €595 (Dh2,636) in July/August.
If you go
There are regular flights from Dubai to Kathmandu. Fares with Air Arabia and flydubai start at Dh1,265.
In Kathmandu, rooms at the Oasis Kathmandu Hotel start at Dh195 and Dh120 at Hotel Ganesh Himal.
Third Rock Adventures offers professionally run group and individual treks and tours using highly experienced guides throughout Nepal, Bhutan and other parts of the Himalayas.
SQUADS
South Africa:
JP Duminy (capt), Hashim Amla, Farhaan Behardien, Quinton de Kock (wkt), AB de Villiers, Robbie Frylinck, Beuran Hendricks, David Miller, Mangaliso Mosehle (wkt), Dane Paterson, Aaron Phangiso, Andile Phehlukwayo, Dwaine Pretorius, Tabraiz Shamsi
Bangladesh
Shakib Al Hasan (capt), Imrul Kayes, Liton Das (wkt), Mahmudullah, Mehidy Hasan, Mohammad Saifuddin, Mominul Haque, Mushfiqur Rahim (wkt), Nasir Hossain, Rubel Hossain, Sabbir Rahman, Shafiul Islam, Soumya Sarkar, Taskin Ahmed
Fixtures
Oct 26: Bloemfontein
Oct 29: Potchefstroom
Sweet Tooth
Creator: Jim Mickle
Starring: Christian Convery, Nonso Anozie, Adeel Akhtar, Stefania LaVie Owen
Rating: 2.5/5
TOURNAMENT INFO
Women’s World Twenty20 Qualifier
Jul 3- 14, in the Netherlands
The top two teams will qualify to play at the World T20 in the West Indies in November
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (captain), Chamani Seneviratne, Subha Srinivasan, Neha Sharma, Kavisha Kumari, Judit Cleetus, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Heena Hotchandani, Namita D’Souza, Ishani Senevirathne, Esha Oza, Nisha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi
'Gehraiyaan'
Director:Shakun Batra
Stars:Deepika Padukone, Siddhant Chaturvedi, Ananya Panday, Dhairya Karwa
Rating: 4/5
SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder
Power: 101hp
Torque: 135Nm
Transmission: Six-speed auto
Price: From Dh79,900
On sale: Now
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
Company: Eco Way
Started: December 2023
Founder: Ivan Kroshnyi
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Electric vehicles
Investors: Bootstrapped with undisclosed funding. Looking to raise funds from outside
World Cup 2023 ticket sales
August 25 – Non-India warm-up matches and all non-India event matches
August 30 – India matches at Guwahati and Trivandrum
August 31 – India matches at Chennai, Delhi and Pune
September 1 – India matches at Dharamsala, Lucknow and Mumbai
September 2 – India matches at Bengaluru and Kolkata
September 3 – India matches at Ahmedabad
September 15 – Semi-finals and Final
SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
How Apple's credit card works
The Apple Card looks different from a traditional credit card — there's no number on the front and the users' name is etched in metal. The card expands the company's digital Apple Pay services, marrying the physical card to a virtual one and integrating both with the iPhone. Its attributes include quick sign-up, elimination of most fees, strong security protections and cash back.
What does it cost?
Apple says there are no fees associated with the card. That means no late fee, no annual fee, no international fee and no over-the-limit fees. It also said it aims to have among the lowest interest rates in the industry. Users must have an iPhone to use the card, which comes at a cost. But they will earn cash back on their purchases — 3 per cent on Apple purchases, 2 per cent on those with the virtual card and 1 per cent with the physical card. Apple says it is the only card to provide those rewards in real time, so that cash earned can be used immediately.
What will the interest rate be?
The card doesn't come out until summer but Apple has said that as of March, the variable annual percentage rate on the card could be anywhere from 13.24 per cent to 24.24 per cent based on creditworthiness. That's in line with the rest of the market, according to analysts
What about security?
The physical card has no numbers so purchases are made with the embedded chip and the digital version lives in your Apple Wallet on your phone, where it's protected by fingerprints or facial recognition. That means that even if someone steals your phone, they won't be able to use the card to buy things.
Is it easy to use?
Apple says users will be able to sign up for the card in the Wallet app on their iPhone and begin using it almost immediately. It also tracks spending on the phone in a more user-friendly format, eliminating some of the gibberish that fills a traditional credit card statement. Plus it includes some budgeting tools, such as tracking spending and providing estimates of how much interest could be charged on a purchase to help people make an informed decision.
* Associated Press
THE BIO
Favourite place to go to in the UAE: The desert sand dunes, just after some rain
Who inspires you: Anybody with new and smart ideas, challenging questions, an open mind and a positive attitude
Where would you like to retire: Most probably in my home country, Hungary, but with frequent returns to the UAE
Favorite book: A book by Transilvanian author, Albert Wass, entitled ‘Sword and Reap’ (Kard es Kasza) - not really known internationally
Favourite subjects in school: Mathematics and science
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Nomad Homes
Started: 2020
Founders: Helen Chen, Damien Drap, and Dan Piehler
Based: UAE and Europe
Industry: PropTech
Funds raised so far: $44m
Investors: Acrew Capital, 01 Advisors, HighSage Ventures, Abstract Ventures, Partech, Precursor Ventures, Potluck Ventures, Knollwood and several undisclosed hedge funds
The Little Mermaid
Director: Rob Marshall
Stars: Halle Bailey, Jonah Hauer-King, Melissa McCarthy, Javier Bardem
Rating: 2/5