Twitter user numbers rise as new approach draws wider audience of consumers and advertisers. AP
Twitter user numbers rise as new approach draws wider audience of consumers and advertisers. AP
Twitter user numbers rise as new approach draws wider audience of consumers and advertisers. AP
Twitter user numbers rise as new approach draws wider audience of consumers and advertisers. AP

Twitter beats forecasts with first-quarter revenues as user numbers surge


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Twitter on Tuesday posted better than expected first-quarter revenue and a surprise rise in the number of monthly active users, a sign that the social media platform may be on a sustainable path after a year of stagnant user growth, according to Reuters.

It also topped first-quarter sales projections, bolstered by changes to its social-media service that are drawing a wider audience of consumers and advertisers.

Net income in the first quarter rose to $190.8m, or 25 cents a share, from $61m, or 8 cents, a year earlier. Profit excluding certain items was 37 cents a share, compared with the average analyst estimate of 15 cents. In last year’s first quarter, revenue was $665m.

The San Francisco-based company reported $787 million in revenue, an 18 per cent increase from the year-earlier period. Analysts, on average, estimated $775m, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The microblogging site also posted an increase in monetiseable daily active users to 134 million, beating analyst predictions for about 128.4 million. That compares with 126 million in the fourth quarter.

Twitter shifted focus to daily users for the first time in the December quarter, arguing that it’s a more meaningful metric than monthly visitors because the company aims to drive people to the service every day.

Analysts were encouraged by signs Twitter had turned a corner in terms of monthly user growth and better appealing to advertisers, but said that the new user metric could make comparisons between Twitter and social media rivals more difficult.

"It looks like Twitter is on path to sustainable revenue growth and accelerated profit expansion, driven by improvements to the user experience and tools enabling direct response and search advertising," said analyst Michael Pachter at Wedbush Securities.

"But people are not impressed with a made up metric and their reluctance to give us actual users. I don’t think the stock can get out of its own way until they come clean and report the same metrics everyone else does."

Chief executive Jack Dorsey has been escalating efforts to rid the site of toxic content amid heightened concerns that social media companies have failed to curb the exploitation of personal data, election meddling and hateful posts. Having long been criticised for relying on users to report abuse, the company recently said some 38 per cent of abusive content is now being found through technology and flagged for human review, up from none last year.

"We are now removing 2.5x more Tweets that share personal information and 38 percent of abusive Tweets that are taken down every week are being proactively detected by machine learning models," Mr Dorsey said.

“We are taking a more proactive approach to reducing abuse and its effects on Twitter,” he said. “We are reducing the burden on victims and, where possible, taking action before abuse is reported."

Advertisers have welcomed those moves, but the company still faces a broader backlash against social media.

US President Donald Trump, a frequent tweeter with one of the most-followed accounts, said he has faced discrimination as a Republican from Twitter, without presenting evidence.

"They don’t treat me well as a Republican. Very discriminatory, hard for people to sign on. Constantly taking people off list. Big complaints from many people," he tweeted, adding a second later calling for the creation of "more, and fairer" social media companies in response to discrimination.

"We enforce the Twitter Rules dispassionately and equally for all users, regardless of their background or political affiliation," a Twitter representative said. "We are constantly working to improve our systems and will continue to be transparent in our efforts."

Twitter rose as much as 10 per cent to $37.99 in premarket trading in New York.

Monthly active users were 330 million in the first quarter, Twitter said. That was up from 321 million in the previous quarter, but marked a decline from the 336 million in the year-earlier period. That number has been decreasing year over year for several quarters, and Twitter told investors in 2018 that the metric would likely continue to drop for some time as it removes spam and suspicious accounts. Twitter said this is the last time that it will disclose monthly active users.

The company said it expects second-quarter revenue to be $770m to $830m - a wide forecast range with a midpoint of $800m, lower than analysts’ average sales estimate of $819.2m.

Twitter, which has a history of being slow to make changes to its service, has recently increased the pace of new product introductions. Last month it opened access to its prototype app, called twttr, to test new ideas and get feedback. The company is also rolling out a Snapchat-like camera feature that lets users post videos or photos in a swipe. The prototype app and iterations are part of the company’s efforts to make Twitter easier to use and feel more like a chat service, with fluid conversations.

Twitter’s stock is up 20 per cent so far this year, outperforming the broader market but lagging behind social media peers. Facebook has climbed more than 38 per cent in 2019, while Snap has more than doubled.

"The nervousness is that a lot of social media companies are facing regulatory pressure and investors don’t quite know how to think about how that might translate into the longer-term," said James Cordwell, an analyst at Atlantic Equities.

"Investors are very cognizant of the investments we’ve seen at Facebook to try and get ahead of its regulatory issues, and I think people are not quite sure what that means for Twitter."

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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