Smoke rises from a refinery in Homs, Syria, a flashpoint between rebels and the government, after being hit by an explosion. AFP / HO / SANA
Smoke rises from a refinery in Homs, Syria, a flashpoint between rebels and the government, after being hit by an explosion. AFP / HO / SANA
Smoke rises from a refinery in Homs, Syria, a flashpoint between rebels and the government, after being hit by an explosion. AFP / HO / SANA
Smoke rises from a refinery in Homs, Syria, a flashpoint between rebels and the government, after being hit by an explosion. AFP / HO / SANA

Syria's fate has key implications for its oil-rich neighbours


Robin Mills
  • English
  • Arabic

You can't make war in the Middle East without Egypt, and you can't make peace without Syria, observed the former United States secretary of state Henry Kissinger. With key members of the regime assassinated, fighting in the streets of Damascus and border crossings in the hands of the opposition, president Bashar Al Assad's days seem to be numbered.

Not a major oil producer itself, Syria's fate still has implications for this energy-rich region. The country's importance has always been as an oil transit state rather than a producer.

During the Iran-Iraq War, to support its ally Tehran, Syria closed the Iraqi pipeline that runs to the Mediterranean.

Last July, with the uprising already well under way, Iran, Iraq and Syria signed a deal for a US$10 billion (Dh36.73bn) gas pipeline. Some observers, who should have been more familiar with Tehran's history of grandiose unrealised energy projects, took this as motivation for a western campaign against the Al Assad regime. A large part of Syria's own oil is in the largely Kurdish north-east corner, sandwiched between Iraq and Turkey (most of the rest lies farther south, along the Euphrates).

Before the uprising against Mr Al Assad, Syria's oil brought in $4bn a year, a third of the government budget. Any new government will need this money.

The mountainous heartland of Mr Al Assad's Alawi sect, from which he may seek to continue the fight, commands the pipeline routes to the Mediterranean ports of Baniyas, Latakia and Tartus. Syria's offshore potential is indicated by the large Cypriot and Israeli gas discoveries nearby, but cannot be explored soon enough to make a separate Alawi entity economically viable.

If an independent state is out of reach, guerrilla warfare and pipeline sabotage may not be.

A prolonged civil war would threaten the spillover of violence into Iraq, which has already suffered a recent upsurge in bombings.

Though this would probably not affect the major oil projects around Basra, it would further undermine Baghdad's ability to translate petroleum revenues into a better life for its people.

Iran, its ally in Damascus overthrown, would be likely to redouble its efforts to exert influence in Iraq, with the GCC states apparently unable to offer a tempting alternative.

Yet even a victorious revolutionary Syrian government may be far from friendly to Iraq, on sectarian grounds and from its friendliness to Iran and to Mr Al Assad.

Already there have been reports of Iraqis in Syria being attacked as they sought to return home; Iraq has closed its borders to Syrian refugees, perhaps fearing infiltration by violent extremists. Mutual hostility would condemn Iraq's shortest westward-bound pipeline route.

As one route closes, another may open. Kurdish forces are said to be ready to enter Qamishli, the largest city in Syrian Kurdistan.

They supposedly include 650 defectors from the Syrian army who were trained in Erbil by the forces of Massoud Barzani, the president of Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).

About 9 per cent of Syrians are Kurdish, 1.6 million people. If they emerge as a major force in a post-Al Assad Syria, they offer an alternative route for KRG oil exports, dependent on agreement neither with Baghdad nor with Ankara.

Alternatively, the KRG can demonstrate its usefulness to Ankara by moderating Syrian Kurdish parties linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has carried out a long insurgency. Just on Friday, the PKK was accused of blowing up the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline.

Beyond these specifics, Syria, though not itself an important oil producer, is as Mr Kissinger noted a pivotal state for the world's premier energy region.

The denouement of its revolution, and the nature of the government that comes afterwards, will be a powerful example for the Middle East, whether for chaos or renewal.

Robin Mills is the head of consulting at Manaar Energy, and the author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis and Capturing Carbon

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Day 5, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance

Moment of the day When Dilruwan Perera dismissed Yasir Shah to end Pakistan’s limp resistance, the Sri Lankans charged around the field with the fevered delirium of a side not used to winning. Trouble was, they had not. The delivery was deemed a no ball. Sri Lanka had a nervy wait, but it was merely a stay of execution for the beleaguered hosts.

Stat of the day – 5 Pakistan have lost all 10 wickets on the fifth day of a Test five times since the start of 2016. It is an alarming departure for a side who had apparently erased regular collapses from their resume. “The only thing I can say, it’s not a mitigating excuse at all, but that’s a young batting line up, obviously trying to find their way,” said Mickey Arthur, Pakistan’s coach.

The verdict Test matches in the UAE are known for speeding up on the last two days, but this was extreme. The first two innings of this Test took 11 sessions to complete. The remaining two were done in less than four. The nature of Pakistan’s capitulation at the end showed just how difficult the transition is going to be in the post Misbah-ul-Haq era.

FIXTURES

Saturday
5.30pm: Shabab Al Ahli v Al Wahda
5.30pm: Khorfakkan v Baniyas
8.15pm: Hatta v Ajman
8.15pm: Sharjah v Al Ain
Sunday
5.30pm: Kalba v Al Jazira
5.30pm: Fujairah v Al Dhafra
8.15pm: Al Nasr v Al Wasl

Normcore explained

Something of a fashion anomaly, normcore is essentially a celebration of the unremarkable. The term was first popularised by an article in New York magazine in 2014 and has been dubbed “ugly”, “bland’ and "anti-style" by fashion writers. It’s hallmarks are comfort, a lack of pretentiousness and neutrality – it is a trend for those who would rather not stand out from the crowd. For the most part, the style is unisex, favouring loose silhouettes, thrift-shop threads, baseball caps and boyish trainers. It is important to note that normcore is not synonymous with cheapness or low quality; there are high-fashion brands, including Parisian label Vetements, that specialise in this style. Embraced by fashion-forward street-style stars around the globe, it’s uptake in the UAE has been relatively slow.

The schedule

December 5 - 23: Shooting competition, Al Dhafra Shooting Club

December 9 - 24: Handicrafts competition, from 4pm until 10pm, Heritage Souq

December 11 - 20: Dates competition, from 4pm

December 12 - 20: Sour milk competition

December 13: Falcon beauty competition

December 14 and 20: Saluki races

December 15: Arabian horse races, from 4pm

December 16 - 19: Falconry competition

December 18: Camel milk competition, from 7.30 - 9.30 am

December 20 and 21: Sheep beauty competition, from 10am

December 22: The best herd of 30 camels

WOMAN AND CHILD

Director: Saeed Roustaee

Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi

Rating: 4/5

Teams

India (playing XI): Virat Kohli (c), Ajinkya Rahane, Rohit Sharma, Mayank Agarwal, Cheteshwar Pujara, Hanuma Vihari, Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, Wriddhiman Saha (wk), Ishant Sharma, Mohammed Shami

South Africa (squad): Faf du Plessis (c), Temba Bavuma, Theunis de Bruyn, Quinton de Kock, Dean Elgar, Zubayr Hamza, Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, Senuran Muthusamy, Lungi Ngidi, Anrich Nortje, Vernon Philander, Dane Piedt, Kagiso Rabada, Rudi Second

Paatal Lok season two

Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy 

Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong

Rating: 4.5/5

FIXTURES

UAE’s remaining fixtures in World Cup qualification R2
Oct 8: Malaysia (h)
Oct 13: Indonesia (a)
Nov 12: Thailand (h)
Nov 17: Vietnam (h)
 

The Pope's itinerary

Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport


Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial


Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Infiniti QX80 specs

Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6

Power: 450hp

Torque: 700Nm

Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000

Available: Now

Sweet%20Tooth
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJim%20Mickle%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EChristian%20Convery%2C%20Nonso%20Anozie%2C%20Adeel%20Akhtar%2C%20Stefania%20LaVie%20Owen%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Mercedes-Benz E 300 Cabriolet

Price, base / as tested: Dh275,250 / Dh328,465

Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder

Power: 245hp @ 5,500rpm

Torque: 370Nm @ 1,300rpm

Transmission: Nine-speed automatic

Fuel consumption, combined: 7.0L / 100km

SERIE A FIXTURES

Friday Sassuolo v Benevento (Kick-off 11.45pm)

Saturday Crotone v Spezia (6pm), Torino v Udinese (9pm), Lazio v Verona (11.45pm)

Sunday Cagliari v Inter Milan (3.30pm), Atalanta v Fiorentina (6pm), Napoli v Sampdoria (6pm), Bologna v Roma (6pm), Genoa v Juventus (9pm), AC Milan v Parma (11.45pm)

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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Christopher%20McQuarrie%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tom%20Cruise%2C%20Hayley%20Atwell%2C%20Pom%20Klementieff%2C%20Simon%20Pegg%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A