The gold price has been on a rising track for over two years. Arne Dedert / AFP
The gold price has been on a rising track for over two years. Arne Dedert / AFP

How to maximise your gains in a gold rally



The price of gold is likely to move higher again this week if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates as forecast.

Gold prices have jumped after each of the previous five rises of the current cycle and is more than 30 per cent up from its recent bear market low of $1,050, touched in December 2015.

Admittedly the price is barely up in 2018 so far. But it has not suffered anything like the volatility of US stock markets and its recent bull market trend is not broken.

If any single factor can be isolated to explain the latest price surge for the yellow metal, it has to be the relative weakness of the US dollar over this period. Will this continue?

Given that the US dollar was previously at a 14-year top, and that these trends tend to span a very long period, then history suggests that dollar weakness is not over yet.

The five Fed interest rate rises have so far failed to stop the fall in the greenback’s value as the market is more worried about a surge in the national debt courtesy of tax cuts and increased military spending.

One possible future scenario is that January's US stock market decline resumes and that the Fed then cuts interest rates to counter an even more serious correction.

That’s what happened in 2008 when rates rose up and up until the stock market crashed and then went down all the way to zero.

The effect of that was a dollar crash and soaring precious metal prices, with gold hitting an all-time high of $1,923 an ounce by October 2011.

Donald Trump favours a weaker dollar, higher inflation, trade tariffs and a rising national debt to fund tax cuts and a higher military budget. These are all gold price positive, and particularly bad for bonds that are the usual alternative safe haven asset to gold.

Any movement from the massive US bond pool into the much smaller gold market would have a huge impact on gold prices.

So, if you are convinced that gold has a bright future ahead, and the 2010 to 2011 gold bull market saw prices double, then how should you be positioning for maximum gain?

_______

Read more from Peter Cooper:

Beware of the great cryptocurrency con

What Warren Buffett is really telling investors in his latest letter

Don't bank on cryptocurrencies as the hot tip for the year

Why every long-term expat should buy a property in the UAE

________

Probably the simplest approach is to diversify your holdings and buy some silver as well as gold. That’s because silver almost always outperforms gold in a bull market due to a much tighter supply and demand situation.

True it did not do so last year, but that may just leave a lot more upside for silver investors this year.

Gold is currently 80 times more expensive than silver, and on the four occasions this has happened in the past 30 years the price of silver has advanced significantly. Last time, in 2010 to 2011, gold doubled and silver more than trebled in price.

Indeed, the ratio of gold to silver has never stayed above 80 for more than two months before reversing and by extrapolation that predicts a surge in silver prices early next month, at the latest.

Silver can be bought in any Dubai gold souk in 500 gram or  kilogram bars; or you can buy the SLV exchange traded fund and conveniently keep it in your online brokerage account.

However, the most conventional way to gear up returns on a rising gold price, without going into debt, is to buy the shares of the large gold producers.

Rather like silver, equities in major gold producers have lagged far behind the price advances seen by the king of metals for the past 18 months.

That said there was a 150 per cent hike in the GDX gold miners exchange traded fund in the first half of 2016, a very good demonstration of how these shares can suddenly outperform a rising gold price.

And if you look back to the great 2000 to 2011 gold bull market, the metal itself saw a seven-fold increase in price, while the HUI index of major gold companies was up 16-fold.

I would argue that in current global stock markets, with very few bargains available, the patient investor ought to be looking at gold stocks. In fact, relative to the value of gold the big gold producers have seldom been more undervalued than today.

As goldbug Adam Hamilton of ZealLLC.com recently wrote: "This extreme anomaly can't and won't last… The first time gold hit $1,325 in October 2010, the HUI (index of major gold producers) was trading at 522. That is triple today's ludicrous levels!"

You can easily buy shares from the big producers like Barrick Gold, or the GDX, to put in your brokerage account.

For even bigger returns, consider the junior gold and silver companies. Their main assets generally comprise exploration prospects that will soar in value as precious metal prices increase.

Yet again, these guys have so far lagged a long way behind the recent recovery in the price of gold and silver.

They also tend to be highly volatile. For example, the ETF for junior silver companies, SILJ, is currently trading around 40 per cent down over that time frame.

Again if gold continues to rise in price then it should act like pulling a rubber band on a brick for these associated assets, with prices eventually flying back upwards.

But why are these junior companies so out-of-favour with investors at the moment?

My personal view is that all the speculative money has moved into Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in the past nine months, with investors forgetting about speculative gold and silver companies.

They have also underperformed for such a long time that many investors gave up and found a temporary ‘gold mine’ in cryptocurrencies, until that market blew up in January.

Could punters soon rediscover gold and silver juniors as a 'new' speculation?

Open your eyes to a wealth of opportunities right now in the gold and silver sector, where you can still get in ahead of the crowd.

Peter Cooper has been writing about finance in the Gulf for more than 20 years

ARABIAN GULF LEAGUE FIXTURES

Thursday, September 21
Al Dahfra v Sharjah (kick-off 5.35pm)
Al Wasl v Emirates (8.30pm)

Friday, September 22
Dibba v Al Jazira (5.25pm)
Al Nasr v Al Wahda (8.30pm)

Saturday, September 23
Hatta v Al Ain (5.25pm)
Ajman v Shabab Al Ahli (8.30pm)

Profile box

Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)

Company%20Profile
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Company%20profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlmouneer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dr%20Noha%20Khater%20and%20Rania%20Kadry%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEgypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E120%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%2C%20with%20support%20from%20Insead%20and%20Egyptian%20government%2C%20seed%20round%20of%20%3Cbr%3E%243.6%20million%20led%20by%20Global%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

If you go

The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct to Nairobi, with fares starting from Dh1,695. The resort can be reached from Nairobi via a 35-minute flight from Wilson Airport or Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, or by road, which takes at least three hours.

The rooms
Rooms at Fairmont Mount Kenya range from Dh1,870 per night for a deluxe room to Dh11,000 per night for the William Holden Cottage.

The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
Business Insights
  • Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
  • The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
  • US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
SCORES

Multiply Titans 81-2 in 12.1 overs
(Tony de Zorzi, 34)

bt Auckland Aces 80 all out in 16 overs
(Shawn von Borg 4-15, Alfred Mothoa 2-11, Tshepo Moreki 2-16).

Disclaimer

Director: Alfonso Cuaron 

Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville 

Rating: 4/5

Specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%20train%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%20and%20synchronous%20electric%20motor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20power%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E800hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20torque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E950Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEight-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E25.7kWh%20lithium-ion%3Cbr%3E0-100km%2Fh%3A%203.4sec%3Cbr%3E0-200km%2Fh%3A%2011.4sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E312km%2Fh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20electric-only%20range%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2060km%20(claimed)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Q3%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1.2m%20(estimate)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Managing the separation process

  • Choose your nursery carefully in the first place
  • Relax – and hopefully your child will follow suit
  • Inform the staff in advance of your child’s likes and dislikes.
  • If you need some extra time to talk to the teachers, make an appointment a few days in advance, rather than attempting to chat on your child’s first day
  • The longer you stay, the more upset your child will become. As difficult as it is, walk away. Say a proper goodbye and reassure your child that you will be back
  • Be patient. Your child might love it one day and hate it the next
  • Stick at it. Don’t give up after the first day or week. It takes time for children to settle into a new routine.And, finally, don’t feel guilty.  
Biography

Favourite Meal: Chicken Caesar salad

Hobbies: Travelling, going to the gym

Inspiration: Father, who was a captain in the UAE army

Favourite read: Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki and Sharon Lechter

Favourite film: The Founder, about the establishment of McDonald's

The specs

  Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now

The specs

Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors

Power: 480kW

Torque: 850Nm

Transmission: Single-speed automatic

Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)

On sale: Now

Racecard
%3Cp%3E5pm%3A%20Al%20Bateen%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(Turf)%202%2C200m%3Cbr%3E5.30pm%3A%20Al%20Khaleej%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3E6pm%3A%20Wathba%20Stallions%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3E6.30pm%3A%20Al%20Nahyan%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3E7pm%3A%20Al%20Karamah%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3E7.30pm%3A%20Al%20Salam%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

Indoor Cricket World Cup

Venue Insportz, Dubai, September 16-23

UAE squad Saqib Nazir (captain), Aaqib Malik, Fahad Al Hashmi, Isuru Umesh, Nadir Hussain, Sachin Talwar, Nashwan Nasir, Prashath Kumara, Ramveer Rai, Sameer Nayyak, Umar Shah, Vikrant Shetty

Terminator: Dark Fate

Director: Tim Miller

Starring: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Linda Hamilton, Mackenzie Davis 

Rating: 3/5

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
From Zero

Artist: Linkin Park

Label: Warner Records

Number of tracks: 11

Rating: 4/5

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
'Morbius'

Director: Daniel Espinosa 

Stars: Jared Leto, Matt Smith, Adria Arjona

Rating: 2/5

Results

2pm: Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (Dirt) 1,200m, Winner: Mouheeb, Tom Marquand (jockey), Nicholas Bachalard (trainer)

2.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh68,000 (D) 1,200m, Winner: Honourable Justice, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer

3pm: Handicap (TB) Dh84,000 (D) 1,200m, Winner: Dahawi, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi

3.30pm: Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (D) 1,200m, Winner: Dark Silver, Fernando Jara, Ahmad bin Harmash

4pm: Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Dark Of Night. Antonio Fresu, Al Muhairi.

4.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh68,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Habah, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson

Results

Light Flyweight (49kg): Mirzakhmedov Nodirjon (UZB) beat Daniyal Sabit (KAZ) by points 5-0.

Flyweight (52kg): Zoirov Shakhobidin (UZB) beat Amit Panghol (IND) 3-2.

Bantamweight (56kg): Kharkhuu Enkh-Amar (MGL) beat Mirazizbek Mirzahalilov (UZB) 3-2.

Lightweight (60kg): Erdenebat Tsendbaatar (MGL) beat Daniyal Shahbakhsh (IRI) 5-0.

Light Welterweight (64kg): Baatarsukh Chinzorig (MGL) beat Shiva Thapa (IND) 3-2.

Welterweight (69kg): Bobo-Usmon Baturov (UZB) beat Ablaikhan Zhussupov (KAZ) RSC round-1.

Middleweight (75kg): Jafarov Saidjamshid (UZB) beat Abilkhan Amankul (KAZ) 4-1.

Light Heavyweight (81kg): Ruzmetov Dilshodbek (UZB) beat Meysam Gheshlaghi (IRI) 3-2.

Heavyweight (91kg): Sanjeet (IND) beat Vassiliy Levit (KAZ) 4-1.

Super Heavyweight ( 91kg): Jalolov Bakhodir (UZB) beat Kamshibek Kunkabayev (KAZ) 5-0.

Quick%20facts
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APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)

Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits

Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine

Storage: 128/256/512GB

Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4

Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps

Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID

Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight

In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter

Price: From Dh2,099

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Alnamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMicrofinance%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFamily%20offices%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hoopla%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jacqueline%20Perrottet%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20required%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Summer special
Getting there

The flights

Emirates and Etihad fly to Johannesburg or Cape Town daily. Flights cost from about Dh3,325, with a flying time of 8hours and 15 minutes. From there, fly South African Airlines or Air Namibia to Namibia’s Windhoek Hosea Kutako International Airport, for about Dh850. Flying time is 2 hours.

The stay

Wilderness Little Kulala offers stays from £460 (Dh2,135) per person, per night. It is one of seven Wilderness Safari lodges in Namibia; www.wilderness-safaris.com.

Skeleton Coast Safaris’ four-day adventure involves joining a very small group in a private plane, flying to some of the remotest areas in the world, with each night spent at a different camp. It costs from US$8,335.30 (Dh30,611); www.skeletoncoastsafaris.com

If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.

When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.

How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
The specs

Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol

Power: 154bhp

Torque: 250Nm

Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option 

Price: From Dh79,600

On sale: Now

The biog

Name: Atheja Ali Busaibah

Date of birth: 15 November, 1951

Favourite books: Ihsan Abdel Quddous books, such as “The Sun will Never Set”

Hobbies: Reading and writing poetry


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