US dollar weakness continued through the end of July, however the trend was stopped short following this past Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP).
Data showed that payrolls in July increased to 209,000, well above the expected 183,000 and the previous month reading was also revised upwards to 231,000 from a previous 222,000. The unemployment rate tightened to 4.3 per cent with monthly hourly earnings firming at 0.3 per cent as expected, and up from a previous reading of 0.2 per cent. As published last month, any improving US data would spark buying rallies in the greenback and this proved in full flow following the latest jobs report. The US dollar Index rallied more than 0.8 per cent to close the week at 93.42 levels. Despite the blip in sentiment, the dollar remains entrenched in a bearish pattern, consolidating above 15 month lows. Markets will next turn to this Friday’s US inflation release. Due out at 16:30 Dubai time, the report is expected to show price growth at 0.2 per cent month-on-month and 1.8 per cent year on year in July. Along with output figures & employment, inflation has been a key mandate of the Fed (and its forming of future US rate policy) and of the three, inflation continues to lag. A materialisation of the 1.8 per cent reading in July would snap a four-month losing streak - since February this year, US year-on-year inflation has trended downwards from 2.7 per cent to 1.6 per cent in June – and July’s expectations of 1.8 per cent would continue to shore up US Dollar bulls through the first two weeks of August and will keep the index above 92.50 levels. The Dollar remains sensitive to political developments out of Washington – and this will keep any upward moves in check with strong resistance kicking in at 94.33 levels.
After a stellar July in which it posted 30-month highs, the EUR/USD has been held in check through the early parts of August largely due to the strong dollar moves following the US NFP report. Technically, the Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange (DGCX) euro contract is approaching the lower end of the monthly Ichimoku cloud and this forms the upper resistance for EUR/USD at 1.19 levels through August. Despite The European Central Bank president Mario Draghi’s non-committal body language at the most recent ECB meet, euro longs seem like the most functional option - however, expect to see volatility to pick up the early part of September when the ECB is next set to meet.
Like the euro, the British pound came off multi-month highs to start August. The most recent Bank of England (BoE) rate decision showed an interesting shift in monetary policy committee voting sentiment - two members voted to hike rates while six members voted to hold rates - this was up from the previous month in which the split was three and five. The dovish shift in voting was coupled with the BoE cutting future UK growth rates – growth forecasts for this year were slashed to 1.7 per cent, down from a 1.9 per cent projection in May. For 2018, expectations were cut to 1.6 per cent from a previously expected 1.7 per cent. As the effects of last year’s Brexit vote continue to pan out, the BoE may be in a position to hike rates slightly sooner than their expected third quarter 2018 window as a result of increasing inflation and slowing output. While we expect some pressure for the pound this month, we expect support in DGCX’s pound contract at 1.2930 levels which would give the most value for a short term long strategy. Upsides while be capped at 1.32 levels through August.
And finally, volatility in gold has seen the precious metal oscillate in the channel between 1208 and 1276 on DGCX. Gold will continue to focus on it’s inverse correlation with the US dollar index and we expect to see initial support coming in in the channel between 1240 and 1245, a break of which would expose 1210 levels. On the upside, it seems unlikely gold will have enough steam to break through 1274 levels in the month ahead.
Gaurav Kashyap, Market Strategist at EGM Futures
Company%20Profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
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The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
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Company%20Profile
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Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
Company%20Profile
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Types of bank fraud
1) Phishing
Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.
2) Smishing
The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.
3) Vishing
The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.
4) SIM swap
Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
5) Identity theft
Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.
6) Prize scams
Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
Gulf Under 19s final
Dubai College A 50-12 Dubai College B
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
DUNE%3A%20PART%20TWO
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The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
RESULTS
West Asia Premiership
Thursday
Jebel Ali Dragons 13-34 Dubai Exiles
Friday
Dubai Knights Eagles 16-27 Dubai Tigers
Start-up hopes to end Japan's love affair with cash
Across most of Asia, people pay for taxi rides, restaurant meals and merchandise with smartphone-readable barcodes — except in Japan, where cash still rules. Now, as the country’s biggest web companies race to dominate the payments market, one Tokyo-based startup says it has a fighting chance to win with its QR app.
Origami had a head start when it introduced a QR-code payment service in late 2015 and has since signed up fast-food chain KFC, Tokyo’s largest cab company Nihon Kotsu and convenience store operator Lawson. The company raised $66 million in September to expand nationwide and plans to more than double its staff of about 100 employees, says founder Yoshiki Yasui.
Origami is betting that stores, which until now relied on direct mail and email newsletters, will pay for the ability to reach customers on their smartphones. For example, a hair salon using Origami’s payment app would be able to send a message to past customers with a coupon for their next haircut.
Quick Response codes, the dotted squares that can be read by smartphone cameras, were invented in the 1990s by a unit of Toyota Motor to track automotive parts. But when the Japanese pioneered digital payments almost two decades ago with contactless cards for train fares, they chose the so-called near-field communications technology. The high cost of rolling out NFC payments, convenient ATMs and a culture where lost wallets are often returned have all been cited as reasons why cash remains king in the archipelago. In China, however, QR codes dominate.
Cashless payments, which includes credit cards, accounted for just 20 per cent of total consumer spending in Japan during 2016, compared with 60 per cent in China and 89 per cent in South Korea, according to a report by the Bank of Japan.