Global air passenger slump to last until 2023, Moody’s says

Plane makers such as Boeing and Airbus will be the last in the direct aviation industry to regain their 2019 footing

(FILES) In this file photo taken on May 12, 2020, a passenger walks past empty American Airlines check-in terminals at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Virginia. American Airlines is notifying 25,000 workers that they could be furloughed beginning October 1, although the number of layoffs may be minimized through voluntary programs, executives said on July 15, 2020. The major US carrier will have more than 20,000 more workers on payroll than needed due to a profound downturn in business caused by the coronavirus pandemic, Chief Executive Doug Parker and President Robert Isom said in a memo to employees. / AFP / ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS
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Global airline passenger demand won’t recover to pre-coronavirus pandemic levels until the end of 2023, and only then if effective vaccines and medicines are available, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

The recovery for airlines and airports will be largely aligned, followed by aircraft lessors as carriers return fleets to service, Moody’s analysts including Jonathan Root wrote in a report. Manufacturers such as Boeing  and Airbus will be the last in the direct aviation industry to regain their 2019 footing, they said.

Demand dropped by more than 90 per cent within weeks of the onset of the pandemic, a slump that impacted a broad swath of the global economy given that passenger airlines supported about 3 per cent of world gross domestic product in 2019, according to the report.

The development of a vaccine will be key in determining the industry’s recovery, both fundamentally and financially, while more government support will probably be necessary to ensure airlines survive, Moody’s said.

“With an effective coronavirus vaccine likely not available before well into 2021 – and likely longer to cover potential mutations of the virus and to ensure adequate dosage supply for the masses – additional government support will be required for the airline industry if employment levels are to be maintained near already reduced levels, and potentially to stave off additional airline restructurings and insolvency proceedings,” Moody’s said.

There could also be changes to long-haul travel, with some carriers expanding point-to-point operations and others reverting to hub-to-hub flying, relying on code-share or joint venture partners to complete journeys.

Meanwhile, the need to reduce carbon emissions will “hold out hope” for Airbus A320 Neo and Boeing 737 Max deliveries, according to Moody’s.